美國學者伯格斯滕首先提出中美G2的想法,布熱津斯基也認為,中國在國際上排名第二,僅次于美國。歐洲2007年底就有民調顯示,80%的受訪者認為中國已經是僅次于美國的第二強國。這些都表明,中國正在從國際政治的邊緣轉向中心。
FRED BERGSTEN (Director of the Peterson Institute for International Economics) first suggested the idea of G2. Brzezinski believed that China is second only to the United States. A survey in Europe at the end of 2007 echoed his view as 80% of respondents believed China has became the number two world power. Clearly China is moving from the margin to the center of the world politics.
外界對于中國將成為什么樣的強國也經常表達出強烈的關注。我演講的時候經常碰到這樣的問題:隨著中國的日益強大,中國是否會將自己的意志強加于人?
There are some loudly expressed concerns about what kind of power China will become. I am often asked during speech occasions: as China grows stronger, would China impose its will on others?
但是,在中國國內,對“中國是強國嗎”這個問題有著完全不同的看法。大部分中國人認為,中國還遠遠沒有達到強國的地位,一個流行的說法是,外界在“忽悠”中國。
But, is China a power? The response of the Chinese people is very different. Most of them see China still as a developing country. A popular saying in Chinese is “HuYou” 忽悠 (meaning sweeping China off its feet).
今年1月,我在中國大使館舉辦了一場討論會,參加的有140多人,除了外交官,還有常駐倫敦的中資企業人士和記者。大家圍繞中國的國際地位問題進行了熱烈的討論,這是我經歷過最熱烈的一場中國人之間的辯論了。
Last January, I hosted a debate in my Embassy. The topic was China’s international status. About 140 people came, including embassy diplomats, business people and journalists stationed in London. It was the most heated debate I’ve had with my fellow Chinese.
一位年輕人首先發言說,中國是世界居二的國家,排位僅次于美國。在場的大部分人不贊成他的意見,人們紛紛發言,列舉各種數字和存在的問題,以說明中國只是一個發展中國家。當我問到,有誰贊同他的意見時,只有4個人舉起手來,加上他是5個人。也就是說,140個人中不到4%的人與布熱津斯基對中國的判斷持相同的看法。
A young man kicked off the debate by saying that China is a world power second only to the US. He was challenged by almost the whole crowd. People spoke one after another, citing statistics and problems in China to argue that we are just another developing country. I then asked, who would agree with him? I saw only four hands up. It means only five people, including the gentleman himself were of the view, or less than 4% of the participants shared Brzezinski’s perception.
我于是問,大家認為哪個國家在世界上排名第二位?人們毫不猶豫地說,是俄羅斯。我又問:哪個國家排第三?回答:德國。第四?英國。問到第五的時候,大概有一半的人提到可能是法國,一半的人說可以是中國了。
Then I asked the crowd: which country do you think is the No 2 power in the world? They answered almost without hesitation,“Russia”. “Which is the third?”“Germany.”“The fourth?”“Great Britain.” When it came to the fifth, some said France some said it could be China.
當然,大家也認為這樣簡單的排列是不準確的,各國的地位和處境是一個非常復雜的問題。但是,這個討論在一定程度上能反映中國人的心態。中國和外界對這一問題出現了兩種截然不同的認識,孰是孰非?很顯然,兩方面的觀點都能找到事實依據。