評論
打印
中國內陸地區的經濟增長正在超過沿海地區。上海、北京、廣東等東部沿海發達地區， 在九十年代中期增速遠高于百分之十，在本世紀前十年中期也是一樣；而現在，增速已經比較接近百分之十，這些大城市仍然非常重要。同時，四川、內蒙古、遼寧、湖南、重慶這些欠發達的省市，過去五年的年增長速度已經在百分之十，和百分之十五之間。內蒙古的增長速度已經接近百分之二十。
China is entering a period where economic growth in inland regions is overtaking that of coastal regions. While the eastern seaboard growth engines like Shanghai, Beijing and Guangdong grew at rates well in excess of 10 per cent during the mid 1990s and again during the mid 2000s, growth rates in these provinces/municipalities are now much closer to 10 per cent. These large cities will retain their importance. In comparison, lesser-developed provinces like Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Hunan and Chongqing have been growing at between 10 and 15 per cent annually over the past five years. In the case of Inner Mongolia, growth has been closer to 20 per cent.
經濟增長向內陸地區轉移，表明中國政府采取新措施，激勵企業在內陸省份投資建廠。在省級的層面上，有廣東的"雙轉移"政策。制造商也在尋找比東部沿海地區更低的勞動和用地成本。其它的中心區就有了機會。重慶就是個很好的例子。重慶市和一個省差不多大，人口三千萬。二零零零年，人均GDP是六百二十三美元，是全國平均水平的百分之六十六?，F在，重慶人均GDP是四千零四十九美元，是全國平均水平的百分之九十二。
This shifting of growth to inland regions reflects the Chinese Government’s new incentives for industry to invest and establish operations in China’s inland provinces. These efforts are replicated at a provincial level here in Guangdong by the Double Transfer policy. Manufacturers are also seeking alternatives to the rising costs of labour and land on the eastern seaboard. This development has opened up opportunities for other centres. Chongqing is one impressive example. A province-sized “city” with a population of 30 million, Chongqing’s per capita GDP was US$623 in 2000, or 66 per cent of national average. It’s now US$4,049 or 92 per cent of national average ofUS$4,382.
隨著交通、基礎設施、物流條件變得更好，中國新興城市的競爭力也變強了。中國已經有七千公里的高鐵網絡，到二零二零年將增加到一萬六千公里。重慶本來到上海要飛一千四百公里，隨著高鐵網絡的發展，以后不到半天就能從沿海地區到重慶。武廣高鐵是全世界最快的火車線路，把廣州和二線城市武漢和長沙連接起來。
The competitiveness of China’s emerging cities will be boosted by improvements in transport infrastructure and logistic. China is already well-serviced by a 7,000 km high-speed rail network, which will increase to 16,000 by 2020. As the high-speed network develops, even cities like Chongqing, 1,400 km by air from Shanghai will be accessible from the coast within half a day. China’s flagship high-speed rail line, also the world’s fastest train service, connects Guangzhou with the fast-growing second-tier cities of Wuhan and Changsha.
對澳大利亞經濟意味著什么
Implications for the Australian Economy
總的來說，中國經濟變化很快，不僅是總量，還有增長的結構。
• 中國很快將成為世界最大的經濟體。
• 過去三十年的增長模式，正在轉變為，以消費為基礎，由國內社保改革支撐的，一種增長模式。
• 由于快速的城市化，以及相應產生的內需，制造業會保持強健。
• 而服務業，進口和出口，增長都很快。
• 環境制約因素出現，為清潔能源產品和服務創造了新的市場。
• 研發投入也使中國迅速提升價值鏈。
• 相當一部分增長來源于中國的“二線”城市和新興省份。
In summary, the Chinese economy is changing rapidly, not only in terms of its absolute size – but also in terms of the composition of its growth.
• China will soon become the world’s largest economy.
• Its growth model of the last 30 years (driven by labour intensive manufacturing exports) is changing to one based on domestic consumption, underpinned in part by domestic social security reform.
• Manufacturing will remain strong on the back of continuing rapid urbanisation and associated domestic demand.
• But the services sector, including imports and exports, is growing rapidly.
• Environmental constraints are emerging – creating new markets for clean energy goods and services.
• R&D investment is also moving China rapidly up the value chain, and
• A necessary proportion of the above growth is by and large out of China’s so-called ‘second tier’ cities and emerging provinces.
這些因素也改變著中國與其他國家經濟交往的模式。這些對澳大利亞經濟意味著什么呢？
These economic ‘change drivers’ are also changing the pattern of China’s economic engagement with the rest of the world. So what does all this mean for the Australian economy.
澳大利亞是亞洲第四大經濟體。澳大利亞是世界第十三大經濟體。澳大利亞是一個能源大國。我們是世界上第九大能源生產國，能源凈出口量約占產量的三分之二。從一九八九年以來，澳大利亞的能源出口平均每年增加百分之十。澳大利亞還有成熟的農業、制造業和服務業。和中國一樣，澳大利亞有許多世界一流大學。澳大利亞的金融業發展強健，管理先進、監管體系完備，受全球金融危機的影響很小。我們有全球第四大基金管理業。
Australia is the 4th largest economy in Asia. Australia is the 13th largest economy in the world. Australia is an energy superpower. We are the world’s ninth largest energy producer and with net energy exports accounting for around two-thirds of energy we produce. Since 1988-89, the value of Australia’s energy export has increased by an average of 10 per cent per year. Australia also has sophisticated agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors. Australia also has as many world class universities as China. Australia’s financial services sector is strong, robust, well managed and well regulated – and survived the Global Financial Crisis intact. We have the 4th largest funds management industry in the world.
