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因此，過去三十年，中國經濟發生了巨大的轉變，中國經濟的國際影響力也發生了改變。
These radical economic transformations over the last three decades have also resulted in the transformation of China’s economic significance.
中國在世界上的經濟規模
China’s Global Economic Size
首先我要談到一些經濟數據。我不想說得太專業，但是這些數據比較重要，它們可以說明中國目前的經濟狀況。
I want to first raise a few numbers. While I don’t want to get too technical, these are numbers which are important in highlighting the current state of China’s economy.
中國現在是世界第二大經濟體。去年，中國GDP增長約百分之十點三，達到, 五點九萬億美元。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預測中國經濟到二零一六年會再翻一番，GDP超過十一點二萬億美元。盡管中國經濟還是比美國規模小，但是差距在快速縮小。要知道,在一九八零年,中國的經濟規模只有美國的百分之七點三。至于中國經濟總量什么時候, 超過美國，現在有爭論。但是按照現在的趨勢，中國很可能在本世紀的第三個十年之前, 成為最大的經濟體。這個沒有爭論。
China now stands tall as the second-largest economy in the world. Last year, China’s GDP grew by around 10.3 per cent to reach US$5.9 trillion. By 2016, the IMF predicts that China’s economy will almost double again in size, with a forecast GDP of over US$11.2 trillion. While this will still be well short of the size of the US economy (forecast GDP of US$18.8 trillion in 2016), China has closed the gap very fast. Remember, in 1980, China’s GDP was just 7.3 per cent the size of the US economy. When China actually overtakes the US economy in terms of absolute size is hotly debated. But what isn’t in debate is that on current projections, China’s economy is likely to be the largest in the world before the end of the third decade of this century.
中國的很多經濟指標，都遠遠超過了,其他國家。二零一零年，中國是世界最大貨物貿易出口國，占全球貨物出口的，百分之十點四，領先美國和德國。此外，二零一零年，中國是第二大貨物貿易進口國，僅次于美國。中國是全球最大的汽車市場。二零一零年，中國汽車銷量一千八百萬輛，同比增長百分之三十二。更加值得注意的是，二零一零年，中國是商業服務第四大出口國，出口額一千七百億美元，同比增長百分之三十二。同時也是商業服務第三大進口國，進口額一千九百二十億美元，同比增長百分之二十二。中國有八個城市人口超過一千萬，九十三個城市人口超過五百萬。到二零二零年，中國將有六個省的GDP超過一萬億美元，相當于六個俄羅斯(或者西班牙或加拿大)。
On a significant number of measures, China already stands well above the rest. In 2010, China was the world’s largest merchandise exporter (US$1,578bn) with a 10.4 per cent share of world merchandise exports, ahead of the US (US$1,278bn) and Germany (US$1.269bn). China was the world’s second-largest merchandise importer in 2010 (US$1,395bn) behind the US (US$1,968bn). China is also home to the world’s largest automotive market. In 2010, 18 million automobiles were sold in the Chinese market, an increase of 32 per cent year on year. But perhaps even more significant, and a harbinger of things to come, is that in 2010 China was the fourth-largest exporter of commercial services – worth US$170bn, a 32 per cent year-on-year increase compared with 2009. As well, it was the third-largest importer of commercial services at US$192bn; a 22 per cent increase year-on-year. Eight Chinese cities have a population of more than 10 million, and 93 have more than 5 million. By 2020, China will have six provinces with an annual GDP of more than US$1 trillion, equal to six countries the size of Russia (or Spain or Canada).
中國的崛起依賴大量資源。二零零九年，中國超過美國成為最大能源消費國。預計中國能源年均需求量在二零零八和二零三五年間,會上升百分之七十五。中國很多礦石資源的消費量也是世界第一。包括鋁、銅、鎳、鋅、鉛、錫、鐵礦石,和煤，特別是鐵礦石和煤的需求很大。二零零九年，中國消費近三十二億噸煤。澳大利亞是最大的, 煤出口國，二零零九年出口二點七五億噸，僅僅相當于中國需求的百分之十。去年，中國也是世界第一大鋼材消費國，占全球，百分之四十六。到二零一六年，中國粗鋼消費量將接近十億噸，占預計全球消費的百分之五十二，約為預計第二大消費國印度的九倍。這些經濟數字讓人驚嘆，向我們展現一幅宏大的藍圖。
China’s emergence has, of course, been massively resource intensive. In 2009, China overtook the US to become the world’s largest energy consumer. Between 2008 and 2035, China’s per year energy demand is forecast to increase by 75 per cent (International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2010). On the mineral resource side, China is also in first place on many fronts. It is now the world’s largest consumer of aluminium, copper, nickel, zinc, lead, tin, iron ore and coal. China’s appetite for steel and coal is particularly striking. In 2009, China consumed around 3.2 billion tonnes of coal domestically. To put this into perspective, Australia, the world’s largest exporter of coal, exported 275 million tonnes of coal in 2009, less than 10 per cent of what China consumed. Last year, China was the world’s largest user of steel, around 46 per cent of global consumption. By 2016, China’s crude steel consumption is forecast to total just under 1 billion tonnes, over 52 per cent of forecast world consumption and almost nine times the volume of the world’s second largest forecast consumer, India. These numbers are staggering and they paint a big strategic picture.
現在我要談到一個新的 – 但是有直接關系的題目，那就是中國改變增長模式。
I want to now discuss a new topic, but one which follows naturally from what I’ve just discussed – that is China’s Changing Growth Model
