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昨天，我們開車經過了美麗的廣州歌劇院，讓我想起過去。我是一九八四年第一次來中國。現在的變化真大。那時，中國一九七八年實行的改革開放政策剛剛開始有了效果。我當時無法想象一家外國公司能參加廣州歌劇院的設計。這是個非常有影響的建筑。澳大利亞馬歇爾戴公司（Marshall Day）為廣州歌劇院做聲學設計。這是中國三十年來巨大變化的標志。過去是文革時期封閉的中國，現在是二十一世紀開放的中國。
Yesterday, driving into Guangzhou and past the strikingly beautiful new Opera House, I was reminded of how much China has changed since I first came here in 1984. At that time, just as the China’s economic reform and open door policies of 1978 were starting to take effect, it was unthinkable that a foreign company could play a part in designing such an important and cutting-edge building in China. The Opera House, whose acoustics were designed by Australian firm Marshall Day, is a symbol of how far China has come in just 30 years, from the inward looking China of the Cultural Revolution, to the outward looking China of the 21st century.
三十年前，大多數觀察家不相信中國能進行大規模的經濟改革。可是事實證明，他們錯了。今天，我要和大家講講中國過去三十年的經濟增長，還有今后三十年，經濟增長模式變了，中國會怎么樣。如果我們覺得過去三十年的變化很大，以后的變化會更大。然后，我想談談這對澳中未來經濟關系的影響。我的想法是中國二點零。還有澳大利亞-中國二點零。
30 years ago, most China watchers were skeptical about China’s capacity for large scale economic reform. But China has proven the skeptics wrong. My purpose today is not just to reflect on the last 30 years of China’s economic growth but also to reflect on the next 30 – as China changes its growth model for the future. Because if we think the changes of the last 30 years have been dramatic, this I believe is only a foretaste of what is to come. And then I want to reflect on what this means for the future of the Australia-China economic relationship. It’s what I call China 2.0. It’s what I call Australia-China 2.0.
數字能說明中國取得的成就。一九八零年以來，中國的實際GDP年均增長百分之十。中國人均GDP從一九八零年的二百零五美元增長到今天的四千三百八十二美元。中國在一九八一年有百分之八十四的貧困人口，而現在,只有百分之二十。近五億人擺脫了貧困。這很了不起。
The figures tell the story so far. Since 1980, China’s real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 10%. This has seen China’s per capita GDP grow from US$205 in 1980 to US$4,382 (in nominal terms) today. The share of China’s population living below the poverty line of $1.25 per day has fallen from 84 per cent in 1981 to 20 per cent today. Around 500 million people have been lifted out of poverty. By world standards, this is a truly remarkable achievement.
不到三十年的時間，中國從貧窮、封閉、農業為主的經濟變成了富裕、國際化的城市經濟。中國過去三十年的經濟成就主要是依靠充足的廉價勞動力，這是中國最大的競爭優勢。中國的制造業發展很快，越來越多的農民工到珠三角、長三角等制造業中心地區工作。
Within thirty years China has transformed itself from an impoverished, isolated and mostly agrarian economy to the increasingly wealthy, internationalized and urban economy we see today. China’s economic achievements over the last thirty years have been driven by its biggest competitive advantage, an abundant supply of low-cost labour. Year after year, we see more and more rural migrants from China’s countryside moving to its manufacturing hubs like the Pearl and Yangtze River deltas to participate in China’s booming manufacturing sector.
一九八零年，中國的城市化率,只有百分之十九。五個中國人里只有不到一個住在城市。二零一零年，城市化率是百分之四十七。換句話說，過去三十年中國的城市人口增加了四點四六億。
In 1980, China’s rate of urbanization was only 19 per cent. Fewer than 1 in 5 Chinese citizens lived in cities. By 2010, this had increased to 47 per cent. In other words, China’s urban population has increased by 446 million over the past 30 years.
這段時間，中國是高儲蓄、低消費，從而有能力投資城市基礎設施，發展生產力。一九八二年居民消費占GDP百分之四十八，二零零九年只占百分之三十四。儲蓄從一九八二年占GDP百分之三十六相應增加到二零零九年的百分之五十三。
Over this time, China has also been able to rely on its high savings and low household-consumption rates to fund investment in urban infrastructure and productive capacity. Household consumption as a percentage of GDP in China fell from 48.9 per cent in 1982 to just 34.9 per cent in 2009. Correspondingly, China’s gross savings as a percentage of GDP increased from 36.3 per cent in 1982 to 53.6 per cent in 2009.
