4. 俄羅斯（Russia）

I rank them behind Pakistan because the odds are better that their desire to be part of the world system ultimately suppresses the country's more dangerous impulses. And because they are likely for the near term to be more dangerous as a diplomatic and political disruptor and as a regional mischief maker than as a direct military threat to anyone outside their immediate neighborhood. If I'm in that neighborhood though, I'm uncomfortable. And on top of all that, the most recent picture of a bare-chested Putin on horseback has me worried.
把俄羅斯排在巴基斯坦后面，希望俄羅斯的正能壓邪。在短期內(nèi)，俄羅斯的威脅還只局限于外交和政治上，至多是地區(qū)性的麻煩制造者，而非直接的全球性軍事威脅。要是誰當(dāng)俄羅斯的鄰居，肯定會寢食難安。此外，普京騎在馬上袒胸露臂的照片讓我感到非常不安。