5. 伊朗（Iran）

Iran could be an important regional force for stability. But for the near term that looks pretty unlikely. Meanwhile, if the Iranian nuclear program triggers a regional arms race that may not mean state-on-state thermonuclear disaster (deterrence probably still works for most states) but it vastly increases the likelihood that some nuke ends up in the hands of some non-state (or allegedly non-state) actor.

　　伊朗可能會成為維護地區(qū)穩(wěn)定的重要力量，但是從近期來看，其發(fā)揮穩(wěn)定作用的可能性不大。此外，伊朗核計劃極有可能引發(fā)地區(qū)軍備競賽。盡管這并不意味著會造成核災難，卻非常有可能讓核武器落入不受國家控制的玩家手中。