1984年在慶祝格雷罕姆與多德合著的《證券分析》發行50周年大會上,巴菲特-這位格雷厄姆在哥倫比亞大學的投資課上唯一給了“A+”的最優秀的學生進行了一次題為“格雷厄姆-多德都市的超級投資者們” (The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville)“的演講,在他演講中回顧了50年來格雷厄姆的追隨者們采用價值投資策略持續戰勝市場的無可爭議的事實,總結歸納出價值投資策略的精髓,在投資界具有非常大的影響力。
THE SUPERINVESTORS OF GRAHAM-AND-DODDSVILLE
Tilsonfunds EDITOR'S NOTE: This article is an edited transcript of a talk given at Columbia University in 1984 commemorating the fiftieth anniversary of Security Analysis , written by Benjamin Graham and David L. Dodd. This specialized volume first introduced the ideas later popularized in The Intelligent Investor . Buffett's essay offers a fascinating study of how Graham's disciples have used Graham's value investing approach to realize phenomenal success in the stock market.
Is the Graham and Dodd “look for values with a significant margin of safety relative to prices” approach to security analysis out of date? Many of the professors who write textbooks today say yes. They argue that the stock market is efficient; that is, that stock prices reflect everything that is known about a company's prospects and about the state of the economy. There are no undervalued stocks, these theorists argue, because there are smart security analysts who utilize all available information to ensure unfailingly appropriate prices. Investors who seem to beat the market year after year are just lucky. “If prices fully reflect available information, this sort of investment adeptness is ruled out,” writes one of today's textbook authors.
格雷厄姆與多德追求“價值遠超過價格的安全保障”,這種證券分析方法是否已經過時?目前許多撰寫教科書的教授認為如此。他們認為,股票市場是有效率的市場;換言之,股票價格已經充分反應了公司一切己知的事實以及整體經濟情況:這些理論家認為,市場上沒有價格偏低的股票,因為聰明的證券分析師將運用全部的既有資訊,以確保適當的價格。投資者能經年累月地擊敗市場,純粹是運氣使然。“如果價格完全反應既有的資訊,則這類的投資技巧將不存在。”一位現今教科書的作者如此與寫道。
Well, maybe. But I want to present to you a group of investors who have, year in and year out, beaten the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. The hypothesis that they do this by pure chance is at least worth examining. Crucial to this examination is the fact that these winners were all well known to me and pre-identified as superior investors, the most recent identification occurring over fifteen years ago. Absent this condition - that is, if I had just recently searched among thousands of records to select a few names for you this morning —— I would advise you to stop reading right here. I should add that all of these records have been audited. And I should further add that I have known many of those who have invested with these managers, and the checks received by those participants over the years have matched the stated records.
或許如此!但是,我要提供一組投資者的績效供各位參考,他們長期的表現總是超越史坦普500種股價指數。他們的績效即使純屬巧合,這項假說至少也值得我們加以審查。審查的關鍵事實是,我早就熟識這些贏家,而且長年以來便視他們為超級投資者,最近的認知也有十五年之久。缺少這項條件——換言之,如果我最近才從成千上萬的記錄中挑選幾個名字,并且在今天早上提供給各位——我建議各位立即停止閱讀本文。我必須說明,所有的這些記錄都經過稽核。我必須再說明,我認識許多上述經理人的客戶,他們長年以來所收取的支票確實符合既有的記錄。