評(píng)論
打印
尊敬的尼布利特所長，
女士們，先生們：
Dr Robin Niblett,
Ladies and gentlemen,
今天能在英國皇家國際問題研究所這個(gè)具有近百年歷史、全球知名的國際關(guān)系研究機(jī)構(gòu)演講，我深感榮幸。我對(duì)皇研所是未謀其面，先聞其名。20多年前我在美國工作，經(jīng)常參加一些學(xué)術(shù)活動(dòng)，研討中不時(shí)提到的一個(gè)專有名詞是“皇研所規(guī)則”（Chatham House Rule），從中我得知了隔著大西洋的皇研所。來英國后，通過與尼布利特所長等皇研所專家的交流，我對(duì)貴所獨(dú)立思考、深入分析的傳統(tǒng)也有了更多了解。
It is my great honour to address Chatham House, an institute with a world reputation and a long history. I first heard about Chatham House more than 20 years ago when I was working in the United States. "Chatham House rule" was often applied in the academic events I attended. Thanks to Dr Niblett and his colleagues, I have learned much more about Chatham House and its proud tradition of independent thinking and profound scholarship since I came to the UK.
今天我演講的主題是未來中國的發(fā)展。剛剛結(jié)束的中國全國人大審議通過了 “十二五”規(guī)劃，這是中國未來五年的發(fā)展藍(lán)圖。因此，我認(rèn)為，講中國未來的發(fā)展，最好就是解讀一下“十二五”規(guī)劃，從中管窺中國發(fā)展思路和方向。
My topic today is China's future development. To understand the thinking and the direction of China's development for the next 5 years, we need to take a closer look at the 12th Five Year Plan that was adopted at the recent annual parliamentary session in China.
我認(rèn)為，“十二五”規(guī)劃釋放的發(fā)展思路主要就是兩點(diǎn)，一是科學(xué)發(fā)展，二是和平發(fā)展。
As far as I can see, the 12th Five-Year Plan boils down into two key terms – "scientific development" and "peaceful development".
關(guān)于科學(xué)發(fā)展，可能一些西方人都不是太理解“科學(xué)”這個(gè)詞，我想再用四個(gè)關(guān)鍵詞來解釋一下，這就是：平衡、包容、全面和綠色。
Some people in the West may be curious about the term 'scientific development'. I think it can be explained in four words: "balanced, inclusive, comprehensive and green development".
說“平衡”，就是說中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式要轉(zhuǎn)型，經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)要調(diào)整。當(dāng)前中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展速度和經(jīng)濟(jì)規(guī)模均位居世界前列，但中國目前“低價(jià)工業(yè)化”發(fā)展模式正受到嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，“大而不強(qiáng)、快而不優(yōu)”的發(fā)展現(xiàn)狀亟需改變。“十二五”規(guī)劃中將未來五年中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速目標(biāo)定為7%，這比改革開放三十年來中國平均年增長10%明顯放緩，也略低于上一個(gè)五年規(guī)劃時(shí)確定的7.5%的目標(biāo)。這一“量”的減慢將為“質(zhì)”的提升留出空間，我們就可以抓住時(shí)機(jī)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式實(shí)現(xiàn)四個(gè)重大轉(zhuǎn)變：
"Balanced" means China must upgrade its growth model and economic structure. Being the second largest economy, China may lead the world in growth rate and economic size, yet its low-cost industrialisation model is exhausting its potential. So China must go beyond size and speed to achieve strength and quality. This is why the economy is set to grow by 7% annually in the next 5 years, which is a marked slowdown from the double digit growth over the past 3 decades. This slower quantitative growth will make more room for higher qualitative growth and create conditions for 4 major transitions:
一是從依賴投資和出口拉動(dòng)的增長方式向消費(fèi)、投資、出口相協(xié)調(diào)轉(zhuǎn)變。二是從憑借廉價(jià)勞動(dòng)力優(yōu)勢向創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動(dòng)、內(nèi)生增長方式轉(zhuǎn)變。三是從傳統(tǒng)產(chǎn)業(yè)為主向發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略性新興產(chǎn)業(yè)和現(xiàn)代服務(wù)業(yè)，形成多元支撐的方式轉(zhuǎn)變。四是從“透支”資源和環(huán)境的粗放增長方式向低碳、綠色的發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變。
a move from reliance on investment and export to balanced growth driven by consumption, investment and export;
a shift from low labour cost to home-grown innovation;
a change from traditional industries to emerging strategic industries and modern services;
and an evolution from energy and resources consuming development to low-carbon and green growth.
