歷史上,中國并非沒有嘗試過西方式的民主,但都并未給中國帶來繁榮和富強。今天,我們找到了一條適合自己發展的道路,建立了有中國特色的民主制度,我們有什么理由動搖?有什么理由折騰?
It was not for lack of trying that Western-style democracy did not bring China the prosperity and strength it had wanted so badly in its modern history. Now that we have found our own road to success and Chinese style democracy, why should we waver or give it up?
第二個問題,中國是否已在坐二望一,很快超過美國?回答這個問題前,我們不妨看以下幾對關鍵詞:
Second question, how soon is China going to overtake the US? Before we answer this question, let's look at some key words:
一是“總量”和“人均”。盡管中國經濟總量成了世界第二,去年達到5.8萬億美元,但人均GDP只有4300美元,仍排在世界百位左右,離中等發達國家相距甚遠,僅占英國的1/9,美國的1/10。
"Aggregates" and "per capita". China's economic aggregates stood at 5.8 trillion US dollars in 2010, ranking second in the world. But its per capita GDP was merely 4,300 US dollars, lower than about 100 other countries, only one ninth of the UK, and one tenth of the US.
二是“沿海”與“內地”及“城市”與“農村”。中國的沿海很發達,城市很繁榮,但是中國西部經濟仍很落后,而且中國的城鎮化率僅有46%,城鄉居民收入比高達3.23:1。我曾在中國最貧困的省份之一甘肅擔任兩年省長助理,對此深有感受。甘肅地處大西北,自然條件惡劣,沙漠化對當地人民的生存構成了嚴峻挑戰,經濟發展困難很大。許多農村的孩子們沒有電腦,更從來沒有上過互聯網。很多孩子在完成國家9年義務階段教育后,由于經濟原因不得不中止學業。
"Coastal" and "inland", "urban" and "rural". We have in China both rich cities in the coastal regions and under developed poor regions in the west of the country. The urbanisation rate is only 46%, and the urban/rural income ratio is as high as 3.23 to 1. I served for two years as Assistant Governor in one of the poorest provinces in northwest China – Gansu. Gansu suffers from tough natural conditions. Desertification threatens the livelihood of the local people and economic development is a huge challenge. Many of the children in the countryside do not have access to computers or the internet. Many boys and girls have to drop out of school because their families cannot afford their continued education.
三是“制造”與“創造”。中國是制造業大國,但很多產品只有加工、封裝等勞動力密集型環節在中國完成,研發設計、關鍵部件和市場營銷都在國外,中國處在國際產業鏈的末端。中國出口商品中90%是貼牌生產,每部手機售價的20%、計算機售價的30%、數控機床售價的20%到40%,都要支付給國外專利持有者。從“中國制造”到“中國創造”還有很長的路要走。
"Made in China" and "created in China". For all its manufacturing strength, China is still at the lower end of the value chain. In many cases only the labour-intensive parts of production such as processing and packaging are done in China. R&D, design, key components and marketing are done elsewhere. 90% of China's export commodities are OEM products. 20% of the retail value of every mobile phone, 30% that of computers and 20-40% that of Computer Numerical Control machine tools go to foreign patent owners. There is still a long way to go from "Made in China" to "created in China".
四是“粗放”與“集約”。有數據顯示,中國單位GDP的能耗是國際水平的三至四倍,是英國的八倍。中國消耗了全球46%的鋼鐵、16%的能源、52%的水泥,但僅創造了全球8%左右的GDP。中國經濟發展效率還有待大幅提升,需要從“粗放型”向“集約型”發展。
"Energy-intensive" and "energy-efficient". Statistics show that China's energy intensity is 3 to 4 times that of the international average and 8 times that of the UK. China consumes 46% of the world's iron and steel, 16% of energy, 52% of cement, and only produces 8% of the world's GDP. China still has a lot to do to raise the quality and efficiency of its economic growth.