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Still worried about China? Sell South Korea. The won is the latest member of the growing group of proxies for negative views on the Asian giant. Other trades have included selling the Australian dollar, dumping miners worldwide and shorting Hong Kong-listed Chinese names — not to mention betting directly on a weaker renminbi.
還擔心中國么？趕快拋售韓元吧。看跌亞洲巨人的代用工具越來越多，韓元是最新一個。此前其他交易包括拋售澳元、拋售全球的礦商股，以及做空在香港上市的中國內地企業——且不提直接押注人民幣走軟。
The won has lost 5 per cent against the dollar this year, making it the worst performer after sterling and the Mexican and Argentine pesos. It now sits at four-year lows, at Won1,234 to the dollar. Reasons for its weakness include 2016 portfolio outflows from Seoul, which are more pronounced than among regional rivals, with a net $2.7bn having fled by the end of last week, according to JPMorgan. The next worst outflows have been from India, which has lost $2.4bn. The rupee, down 3.5 per cent, is the worst performer in the region after the won.
今年韓元兌美元匯率已跌去5%，令它成為繼英鎊、墨西哥比索和阿根廷比索之后表現最差的貨幣。目前，韓元兌美元匯率處于1美元兌1234韓元的四年低點。韓元疲軟的原因之一是2016年流出首爾的投資組合資金，這一資金外流趨勢比亞洲其他對手更加嚴重。根據摩根大通(JPMorgan)的數據，截至上周末凈流出資金規模已達27億美元。規模僅次于韓國的外流發生在印度，它流失了24億美元。盧比匯率已下跌3.5%，是亞洲除韓元外表現最差的貨幣。
Seoul’s soggy equities are driving outflows, as is a rush to hedge local derivatives tied to overseas assets. The bigger danger, however, comes from bond outflows, which have increased since the central bank this month signalled further interest rate cuts. Yields, particularly on longer-dated debt, have fallen as growth hopes have been revised lower.
首爾糟糕的股市正在推動資金外流，競相對沖與境外資產捆綁的國內衍生品的行為也在產生這種效果。然而，更大的危險來自債券市場的資金外流，自韓國央行本月釋放進一步降息的信號以來，這方面的外流規模已經加大。由于增長希望已被下調，韓國債券——尤其是較長期債券——的收益率已經下滑。
Behind all of this to some degree lurks China. As Korea’s biggest export market, any further slowdown there will be felt keenly by its neighbour. Even the hedging of structured products is linked to China: by far the biggest single group of derivatives are linked to Hong Kong’s Hang Seng China Enterprises index. Its weakness has driven the sellers of Korean derivatives to increase hedges, selling won in the process.
這一切的背后在某種程度上都隱藏著中國因素。作為韓國最大出口市場，中國進一步放緩的任何跡象都會被其鄰國敏銳地感受到。在韓國，即使是對結構化產品的對沖也與中國有關：韓國遙遙領先的最大衍生品類別是與香港恒生中國企業指數(Hang Seng China Enterprises Index)掛鉤的衍生品。該指數的疲弱已推動韓國衍生品的拋售者加大對沖，在此過程中拋售韓元。
Korea’s status as the sell-China bandwagon du jour has limits. Officials’ growing unease with the pace of the won’s move is a risk to shorting at these levels. The government has a history of intervention. It doesn’t want a strong won relative to its exporting rivals, but it will not tolerate a plunge. There is also a hefty current account surplus, running at almost 8 per cent of gross domestic product, for bears to reckon with. But if the path of other sell-China proxies holds, the bears will put up a fight. Hong Kong China-listed stocks offer record-low valuations and the Aussie hovers near five-year lows. Seoul should brace itself.
韓國作為拋售中國的代用工具也是有局限的。韓國官員對韓元下跌節奏日益不安，這對在當前水平做空韓元是一大風險。韓國政府有出手干預的歷史。它不希望韓元相對其出口競爭對手的貨幣走強，卻也不會容忍韓元的暴跌。此外，看空者還要考慮到，韓國的經常賬戶順差很高，與國內生產總值(GDP)之比達到近8%。不過，如果拋售中國的其他代用工具仍然有用，看空者將會豪賭一場。香港中資股的估值處于創紀錄低點，澳元也在近五年的低位徘徊。首爾應該做好準備迎接拋售。
