評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
America's consumers
美國消費者
Life after stimmy
大把支票下的生活
Will households, pandemic savings stash keep the economy rolling?
家庭儲蓄和防疫儲蓄能保持經濟運轉嗎？
America's fiscal largesse during the pandemic has fuelled not just economic growth but also a lively hip-hop niche.
美國在疫情期間的慷慨財政不僅推動了經濟增長，也推動了活躍的嘻哈小眾市場。
Over the past two years musicians have released no fewer than 30 different songs referring to the government's stimulus cheques, known as stimmies.
在過去的兩年里，音樂家們已經發布了30多首關于政府發放刺激性支票的歌曲，刺激性支票被稱為“stimmies”。
"Yeah, check, I need a stimmy. S-t-i-double m-y, tell 'em gimme',” raps Curtis Roach in one snappy track.
“嘿，切克鬧，我需要一個刺激支票。S-t-i-double m-y，給我吧！”柯蒂斯·羅奇在一首輕快的曲子里說唱道。
The video seems to confirm the worst fears about how the money was spent.
這段視頻似乎證實了人們對這筆錢是如何花掉的最糟糕的擔憂。
Mr Roach fans himself with dollar bills and sprays them about at parties.
羅奇先生用美元紙幣做成扇子形狀，并在聚會上四處散錢。
But a closer listen reveals a conservative streak that would do fusty financial planners proud.
但仔細聽一聽，你會發現他有一種保守的性格，會讓老氣的理財規劃師感到自豪。
"Generational wealth, that's where it's at…save a lil' bit for the rainy days on yo' back, never slack."
“世代的財富，這就是價值所在，存點錢以備不時之需，永不懈怠。”
The question of how Americans spent and, crucially, saved money over the past two years looms large over the economy today.
在過去的兩年里，美國人是如何花錢以及如何存錢的，這一問題在今天的經濟中顯得尤為突出。
In spring 2020, when millions lost their jobs overnight, a reasonable assumption was that personal finances would suffer.
2020年春天，當數百萬人一夜之間失去工作，一個合理的假設是個人財務將受到影響。
Instead, government handouts, from the stimmies to more generous unemployment benefits, propped up incomes.
然后，與預料相反的是從經濟刺激計劃到更慷慨的失業救濟金，政府的救濟措施提高了人們的收入。
Moreover, as people stayed home, their spending fell well below normal levels.
此外，由于人們呆在家里，他們的支出遠遠低于正常水平。
The result was a piggy-bank boom.
結果導致了一場存錢熱潮。
Americans have accumulated some $2.5trn in extra savings compared with the pre-covid trend.
與疫情前的趨勢相比，美國人已經積累了大約2.5萬億美元的額外儲蓄。
Higher-than-expected incomes account for two-thirds of the stockpile, while lower-than-expected expenditures explain the other third, according to calculations by The Economist.
根據《經濟學人》的計算，高于預期的收入占儲蓄的三分之二，而低于預期的支出解釋了另外三分之一。
This stash of cash could, in theory, provide a pillar for the economy over the coming year as policymakers withdraw support.
從理論上講，隨著政策制定者撤回支持，這些現金儲備可能會為未來一年的經濟提供支柱。
With annual consumer-price inflation running at a four-decade high—it hit 7% in December—the Federal Reserve has signalled that it intends to raise interest rates soon.
隨著年度消費價格通脹達到40年來的最高水平——12月份達到了7%——美聯儲已經發出信號，它打算很快提高利率。
Some economists expect as many as four rate increases this year.
一些經濟學家預計今年可能會有四次加息。
Fiscal policies are also becoming more parsimonious.
財政政策也變得更加節儉。
Many of the benefit top-ups expired in the autumn.
許多補貼已于今年秋季到期。
The Democratic Party's inability thus far to pass President Joe Biden's “Build Back Better” programme will lead to further retrenchment.
民主黨迄今未能通過喬·拜登總統的“重建美好未來”計劃，這將導致進一步的緊縮。
Will the extra savings blunt the impact of all this policy tightening?
額外的儲蓄會削弱所有這些政策緊縮政策帶來的影響嗎？
There are reasons to be sceptical.
我們有理由對此表示懷疑。
Were the $2.5trn shared equally across the country, it would amount to about $7,500 for every American—more than the combined total of the three rounds of stimulus cheques.
如果2.5萬億美元在全國范圍內平均分配，相當于每個美國人大約7500美元——這比三輪“刺激支票”的總和還要多。
In practice the distribution is far from equal.
實際上，分配遠遠不平等。
In the decade before covid-19 the wealthiest 1% of Americans had, in aggregate, about twice as much in cash and chequable bank deposits as the bottom 50%.
在疫情之前的十年里，最富有的1%的美國人總共擁有的現金和支票銀行存款大約是底層50%人的兩倍。
The pandemic has skewed this further: the top 1% now has four times as much as the bottom half.
這場疫情進一步扭曲了這一點：最富有的1%的人的收入是最貧窮50%人的四倍。
Over the government directed its assistance towards poorer Americans, the ultra-rich reaped far greater rewards, thanks in large part to soaring asset prices.
政府的援助對象是較貧窮的美國人，但超級富豪獲得的回報要大得多，這在很大程度上要歸功于飆升的資產價格。
That matters in trying to assess the potential impact of excess savings.
在試圖評估過度儲蓄的潛在影響時，這一點很重要。
The wealthy typically spend a low share of their incomes.
富人的消費只占他們收入很少的一部分。
The extra cash sitting in their hands is more likely to go towards investment accounts than grocery purchases.
他們手中的額外現金更有可能用于投資，而不是購買食品雜貨。
