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Another dampener may be the nature of the economic recovery.
另一個阻礙因素可能是經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的性質(zhì)。
In a paper last year Martin Beraja and Christian Wolf of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology showed that recoveries from recessions where falls in spending are concentrated on goods tend to be stronger than those with cuts concentrated on services.
麻省理工學(xué)院的馬丁·貝拉賈（Martin Beraja）和克里斯蒂安·沃爾夫（Christian Wolf）在去年的一篇論文中指出，低迷的商品消費恢復(fù)勢頭比削減后的服務(wù)業(yè)恢復(fù)勢頭要強勁。
Pent-up demand for, say, smartphones can be released in a flood.
比如，被壓抑的智能手機需求可能會像洪水一樣被釋放出來。
By contrast, demand for beach holidays returns more slowly: vacationers can only be in one place at a time.
相比之下，海灘度假的需求恢復(fù)得更慢：度假者在同一時間只能在一個地方度假。
This suggests that as the pandemic fades, the flow of savings into services such as travel and entertainment may be sluggish.
這表明，隨著疫情消退，流向旅游和娛樂等服務(wù)業(yè)的儲蓄可能會放緩。
A final concern is high inflation.
最后一個令人擔憂的問題是高通脹。
That eats into both wealth and incomes.
這會侵蝕財富和收入。
Adjusted for rising prices, wage growth in America has turned sharply negative over the past half-year.
經(jīng)物價上漲調(diào)整后，美國的工資增長在過去半年里急劇轉(zhuǎn)為負值。
Similarly, the real value of savings looks a bit less impressive given the reduction in purchasing power.
同樣，考慮到購買力的下降，儲蓄的實際價值看起來不那么令人印象深刻。
The story does not end there, though.
然而，故事并沒有到此為止。
Surveys by the Fed's New York branch indicate that stimulus recipients saved about one-third of the cash and used another third to pay down debts.
美聯(lián)儲紐約分行的調(diào)查顯示，接受刺激計劃的人將大約三分之一的現(xiàn)金存起來，另外三分之一用來償還債務(wù)。
That helps explain why households' balance-sheets are healthier today than before the pandemic, regardless of their level of income.
這就解釋了為什么不管收入水平如何，如今的家庭資產(chǎn)負債表都比疫情前更健康。
They thus have scope to borrow and spend more.
因此，他們有更多的借貸和支出空間。
This may already be happening.
這可能已經(jīng)在發(fā)生了。
Consumer borrowing soared in November by $40bn, the most on record, as credit-card usage soared.
隨著信用卡使用量的飆升，11月份消費者借款猛增400億美元，創(chuàng)歷史新高。
Some observers saw that as a sign that households were strapped for cash.
一些觀察人士認為，這是家庭現(xiàn)金拮據(jù)的跡象。
Alex Lin of Bank of America disagrees.
美國銀行的亞歷克斯·林不同意這一觀點。
"An increase in credit-card spending can be a function of greater re-engagement in the economy," he says.
他說：“信用卡消費的增加可能是更多地重新參與經(jīng)濟活動的結(jié)果。”
"Americans like to use their credit cards to rack up points for travel or restaurants, and that is not necessarily a sign of danger."
“美國人喜歡用他們的信用卡累積旅行或餐館積分，這不一定是危險的跡象。”
The damage from inflation may also prove tolerable, especially if the Fed's tightening, plus supply-chain improvements, brings prices back under control.
通脹帶來的損害也可能被證明是可以忍受的，特別是如果美聯(lián)儲的緊縮政策，加上供應(yīng)鏈的改善，使價格回到可控范圍內(nèi)。
Wage growth has been stronger for those on lower incomes, the group most vulnerable to a reduction in real spending power.
低收入人群的工資增長更為強勁，這是最容易受到實際購買力下降影響的群體。
In November annual nominal wage growth for the bottom quartile of earners reached 5.1%, versus 2.7% for the top quartile, according to the Atlanta Fed.
亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲備銀行的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，11月份，收入最低四分之一人群的名義工資年增長率達到5.1%，而收入最高四分之一人群的名義工資年增長率為2.7%。
As a whole, Americans saved about 6.9% of their incomes in November, less than the 7.4% average in the five years before the pandemic.
整體而言，11月美國人將收入的6.9%用于儲蓄，低于疫情爆發(fā)前五年7.4%的平均水平。
Yet this is exactly what should be seen if some people are dipping into their excess savings.
然而，如果一些人動用自己的過剩儲蓄，這正是應(yīng)該看到的情況。
It is also a key reason why most forecasters think the economy will grow by about 4% this year, a robust pace in the face of headwinds.
這也是多數(shù)預(yù)測人士認為今年經(jīng)濟將增長4%左右的關(guān)鍵原因，在逆風(fēng)的情況下，這是一個強勁的步伐。
And that barely grapples with the changes that the extra cash enabled for many recipients.
而這幾乎無法應(yīng)對額外現(xiàn)金給許多受助人帶來的變化。
In another hip-hop track, Reneé the Entertainer sings of a woman who splurged on a buttock-augmentation procedure: "She spent the stimmy/on the booty/in Miami."
在另一首嘻哈歌曲中，藝人蕾妮演唱了一位在隆臀手術(shù)上揮霍無度的女人：“她在邁阿密花了刺激支票用于臀部。
Reneé, whose real name is Mariah Pizarro, in fact put her money to what is arguably a more productive use.
蕾妮的真名是瑪麗亞·皮薩羅，實際上，她把錢用的恰到好處。
"I used them to get a more reliable vehicle," she says.
“我用它們來買一輛更可靠的車，”她說。
Although Ms Pizarro dreams of a music career, the car has for now facilitated a less glamorous occupation.
盡管皮薩羅女士夢想著從事音樂事業(yè)，但汽車目前推動了不那么光鮮的職業(yè)的發(fā)展。
It lets her drive to work at an Amazon warehouse.
她可以開車去亞馬遜的一個倉庫上班。
