評(píng)論
打印
Finance & economics
財(cái)經(jīng)版塊
Economics
經(jīng)濟(jì)
The new consensus
新的共識(shí)
A new study finds that economies are agreeing with each other more
一項(xiàng)新的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，各經(jīng)濟(jì)體之間的共識(shí)越來(lái)越一致
Observers have long poked fun at the inability of the economics profession to make up its mind.
長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)，觀察家們一直嘲笑經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)專家無(wú)法做出決定。
"If parliament were to ask six economists for an opinion, seven would come back," runs one version of an old joke.
“如果議會(huì)征求六位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家的意見(jiàn)，會(huì)返回七種意見(jiàn)，”一個(gè)古老笑話這樣寫(xiě)道。
Yet the gibes may be losing their force.
然而，這些嘲笑可能正在失去效力。
A new paper, by Doris Geide-Stevenson and Alvaro La Parra Perez of Weber State University, finds that economists are agreeing with each other more on a number of policy-related questions.
韋伯州立大學(xué)的Doris Geide-Stevenson和Alvaro La Parra Perez的一篇新論文中指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在一些與政策相關(guān)的問(wèn)題上更加一致。
The paper publishes the results of the latest wave of a survey of economists that has been conducted roughly once a decade since 1976 (though the results of the first wave are not entirely comparable with later ones).
這篇論文公布了最新一波經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家調(diào)查的結(jié)果，該調(diào)查自1976年以來(lái)大約每十年進(jìn)行一次（盡管第一波調(diào)查的結(jié)果完全比不上后面的調(diào)查結(jié)果）。
Members of the American Economic Association were asked whether they agreed with a number of propositions, ranging from the economic impact of minimum-wage increases to the desirability of universal health insurance.
美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)協(xié)會(huì)成員被問(wèn)及是否同意一些主張，包含提高最低工資對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響，以及全民醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)的可取性等。
Based on the frequency of responses, the researchers devised an index that captured the degree of consensus on each question.
根據(jù)回答的頻率，研究人員設(shè)計(jì)了一個(gè)指數(shù)來(lái)捕捉每個(gè)問(wèn)題的共識(shí)程度。
The results suggest that the extent of consensus has risen significantly.
結(jié)果表明，共識(shí)的程度明顯上升。
Economists were in strong agreement on about a third of the propositions in the latest wave, compared with around 15% in 2011 and less than 10% in 1990.
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)最新一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)浪潮中約三分之一的主張持強(qiáng)烈一致意見(jiàn)，而2011年這一比例約為15%，1990年則不到10%。
Respondents were more united on their diagnosis of economic problems.
受訪者對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的診斷更加一致。
And, strikingly, more of them were convinced of the need for muscular policy.
而且，令人吃驚的是，他們中更多的人相信有必要采取強(qiáng)硬的政策。
Inequality was a growing concern.
不平等問(wèn)題日益引起關(guān)注。
The share of respondents who wholly or somewhat agreed that the distribution of income in America should be more equal rose from 68% in 2000 to 86% in 2020-21.
完全或部分同意美國(guó)收入分配應(yīng)該更加平等的受訪者比例從2000年的68%上升到2020-21年的86%。
Fully 85% thought corporate power was too concentrated.
足足有85%的人認(rèn)為公司權(quán)力過(guò)于集中。
Another worry was climate change, which most agreed posed a big risk to the economy.
另一個(gè)令人擔(dān)憂的問(wèn)題是氣候變化，大多數(shù)人都認(rèn)為這對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)構(gòu)成了很大的威脅。
(Both questions were asked for the first time in the latest wave.)
（這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題都是在最新一波中首次提出的。）
Unsurprisingly, given their views on market power, respondents' support for a vigorous use of antitrust policy has increased markedly over the past two decades.
關(guān)于受訪者對(duì)市場(chǎng)力量的看法完全在意料之中，他們對(duì)大力使用反壟斷政策的支持在過(guò)去20年里顯著增加。
Another notable change was in the enthusiasm for fiscal activism.
另一個(gè)值得注意的變化是對(duì)財(cái)政激進(jìn)主義的熱情。
More economists thought that the Federal Reserve alone could not manage the business cycle—perhaps consistent with the decline in its policy rate towards zero—and were keener on a bigger role for government.
更多的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為，僅靠美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)無(wú)法管理商業(yè)周期——或許與其政策利率降至零的趨勢(shì)一致——他們更希望讓政府發(fā)揮更大的作用。
More of them also agreed that fiscal policy could have important economic effects, both during downturns and over the long term.
他們中更多的人還認(rèn)為，無(wú)論是在經(jīng)濟(jì)低迷時(shí)期還是在長(zhǎng)期看來(lái)，財(cái)政政策都可能產(chǎn)生重要的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響。
The dismal science has not become entirely harmonious, though.
然而，這門(mén)沉悶的科學(xué)并沒(méi)有變得完全和諧。
Economists were slightly more split on the consequences of lowering income and capital-gains taxes in the latest wave, with roughly half of respondents agreeing with the propositions put to them by the researchers, and the rest disagreeing.
經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家對(duì)最近一輪減稅浪潮中降低所得稅和資本利得稅的后果，看法略有分歧，大約一半的受訪者同意研究人員提出的主張，其余的人則不同意。
Enough room, still, for healthy debate.
不過(guò)，仍有足夠的空間進(jìn)行有益的辯論。
