The second group consists of most other rich countries outside America. There, neither labour nor capital seems able to triumph. After correcting for pandemic-related distortions Japan’s pay growth appears to be slowing to below 1% a year, suggest data from Goldman Sachs, a bank.
第二類包括除美國之外的大多數富裕國家。在這些國家,勞動力和資本誰也贏不了誰。高盛銀行(Goldman Sachs)的數據顯示,修正了與疫情相關的失真后,日本的薪酬增長似乎正在放緩至每年1%以下。
Pay settlements in Italy and Spain are treading water, while wage growth in Australia, France and Germany remains well below where it was before the pandemic. Workers in these places are not really joining in with the inflationary party.
意大利和西班牙的薪資水平停滯不前,而澳大利亞、法國和德國的薪資增長仍遠低于疫情前的水平。這些地方的工人并沒有真正加入通脹的陣營。
But businesses are not soaring either. In Europe pre-tax profit margins, as measured in the national accounts, have risen in recent months but remain below where they were just before the pandemic.
但企業利潤也沒有大幅增長。在歐洲,按國民經濟核算計算的稅前利潤空間近幾個月有所上升,但仍低于疫情爆發前的水平。
In Japan the “recurring” profits before tax of large and medium-sized companies recently returned to pre-pandemic levels. The profits of smaller companies remain well below, however.
在日本,大中型企業的“經常性”稅前利潤最近恢復到了疫情前的水平。然而,小型企業的利潤仍遠低于疫情前。
In the third group sits America. Here wage growth is rapid, at about 5% a year. But as shown in their most recent financial results, big listed American companies are doing a better job of protecting margins than analysts had expected.
第三類是美國。美國的工資增長很快,大約是每年5%的增速。但其最近的財務業績表明,美國大型上市公司對利率的保護超過了分析師們的預期。
A series of unusually large stimulus payments may mean that households are able to absorb the higher prices that companies impose.
一系列異乎尋常的巨額刺激支出可能意味著百姓能夠承受企業強加的更高價格。
In early February Amazon said it would increase the price of its Prime membership package by 17% in its home market—even as it chose not to announce price rises in other parts of the world.
2月初,亞馬遜宣布將美國市場上的Prime會員套餐的價格提高17%,不過在世界其他地區,它沒有宣布漲價信息。
Some firms are increasing their margins despite soaring costs.
盡管成本飆升,一些公司的利潤仍在增加。
Tyson, an American meat producer, reported an 18% jump in the costs of its inputs in the most recent quarter compared with a year earlier, a 19.6% increase in its average selling prices, and a 40% rise in its adjusted operating profits. It says that rising meat prices have not slowed demand.
美國肉類生產商泰森(Tyson)報告稱,與去年同期相比,其最近一個季度的投入成本上漲了18%,平均銷售價格上漲了19.6%,調整后的營業利潤增長了40%。該公司表示,不斷上漲的肉價并沒有減緩需求。
An economy-wide measure of corporate margins is rising fast. Dario Perkins of ts Lombard, a financial-services firm, breaks down America’s rise in unit prices since the start of the pandemic into companies’ labour costs, non-labour costs and profits.
衡量企業利率的經濟指標正在迅速上升。金融服務公司ts Lombard的達里奧·帕金斯(Dario Perkins)分析了自疫情爆發以來美國單位價格的上漲,并將其拆分為企業的勞動力成本、非勞動力成本和利潤。
Wages are rising, but nonetheless markups are responsible for more than 70% of inflation since late 2019, he finds. In a recent report, analysts at Bank of America argue that greater pricing power helps explain why American equities have a higher price-earnings ratio than European ones.
他發現,工資正在上漲,但盡管如此,自2019年末以來,超過70%的通脹都是由抬價造成的。在最近的一份報告中,美國銀行的分析師認為,更大的定價權解釋了為什么美國股票的市盈率比歐洲股票的高。
The story is not over yet. Some economists wonder if workers will before long demand even higher wages to compensate for higher prices in the shops. There is some evidence of this in America and Britain, where wage growth seems to be accelerating.
故事還未結束。一些經濟學家想知道,工人們是否會在不久之后要求更高的工資,以對沖更高的物價。美國和英國出現了相關跡象,那里的薪資增長正在加速。
Businesses’ expectations for future wage settlements remain fairly conservative, though that could soon change. If wages do start to grow more quickly, the cycle of price rises and compensating wage demands might start up all over again. Before long the post-lockdown economy could look like the ultimate compromise—where nobody is satisfied.
企業對未來的薪資預期仍然相當保守,不過這可能很快就會改變。如果薪資真的開始快速增長,可能會再次啟動抬價與漲薪之間的循環。用不了多久,疫情封鎖后的經濟可能會像是終極妥協——沒有一個人滿意。