評論
打印
Finance & economics
財經版塊
Oil
石油
A slippery patch
一個不牢靠的領域
OPEC grapples with a precariously balanced oil market
歐佩克（石油輸出國組織）努力扭轉失衡的石油市場
Oil and philosophy rarely mix.
石油和哲學很少能混為一談。
But when David Fyfe of Argus Media, a publisher, calls production quotas set by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (opec) and its allies a "Platonic ideal"—more of a theoretical model than a practical guide—he captures the sense of self-doubt now gripping energy markets.
但當阿格斯傳媒的出版商David Fyfe稱石油輸出國組織(OPEC)及其盟友設定的產量配額是“柏拉圖式的理想”——與其說是實踐指南，不如說是理論模型——他抓住了目前籠罩著能源市場的自我懷疑的感覺。
Every month since July, the group has agreed to raise its output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd).
自7月以來，該組織每月都同意將日產量提高40萬桶。
But experts cannot decide whether that is too little or too much—and whether the target means much at all.
但專家們無法決定這是太少還是太多，也不能確定這個目標是否意義重大。
The cartel's latest meeting, on February 2nd, took place against the backdrop of heightened fears about a Russian invasion of Ukraine (Russia, the world's second-biggest oil exporter, is a member of the extended cartel, known as opec+).
2月2日，在對俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的擔憂加劇的背景下，卡特爾組織召開了最近一次會議（俄羅斯是世界第二大石油出口國，也是被稱為歐佩克+的擴大卡特爾組織的成員）。
Only the week before the price of a barrel of Brent crude had spiked above $90, its highest level in seven years.
就在一周前，布倫特（Brent）原油價格還升至每桶90美元以上，達到7年來的最高水平。
The alliance promised to raise output again, by the usual amount.
該聯盟承諾再次提高產量，幅度與往常一樣。
That calmed markets a bit.
這讓市場平靜了一些。
The question is what happens next.
問題是接下來會發生什么。
Many Wall Street analysts have lifted their oil-price forecasts for this year above $100 a barrel.
許多華爾街分析師已將今年的油價預期上調至每桶100美元以上。
War in Ukraine, they say, could push it well past $120.
他們說，烏克蘭的戰爭可能會將其推高至120美元以上。
Conflict would probably not physically disrupt supply.
沖突可能不會對供應造成實質性的干擾。
By contrast with the gas it pipes to Europe, Russia mostly exports oil by sea.
與輸送到歐洲的天然氣不同，俄羅斯主要通過海路出口石油。
Instead, a fear of potential sanctions on trade may set prices ablaze.
相反，對潛在貿易制裁的擔憂可能會讓價格飆升。
Geopolitics aside, the bull case rests on resurgent demand.
撇開地緣政治不談，看漲的理由在于需求的復蘇。
The International Energy Agency reckons oil consumption will rise from its present level of about 97m bpd to 100m bpd—a return to pre-covid levels—by the end of the year, even before global aviation fully recovers.
國際能源署（IEA）估計，即使在全球航空業完全復蘇之前，到今年年底，石油日消費量將從目前的約9700萬桶升至1億桶，恢復到疫情之前的水平。
Damien Courvalin of Goldman Sachs, a bank, says consumers switching to oil from gas (prices for which have been sky-high in Europe) may have boosted demand by up to 1m bpd, leading to "critically low inventory levels".
高盛銀行的Damien Courvalin說，消費者從天然氣轉向石油（在歐洲，天然氣的價格一直很高）可能會使需求每天增加高達100萬桶，導致“極低的庫存水平”。
Supply is tight, too.
供應也很緊張。
Paul Sheldon of s&p Global Platts, a data firm, reckons global spare production capacity is only about 2.6m bpd.
數據公司標普全球普氏能源資訊的保羅謝爾登估計，全球閑置產能僅為每日260萬桶左右。
And pledges by opec+ cannot be counted on.
而且歐佩克+的承諾也不能指望。
Many members have struggled to raise output owing both to underinvestment and covid-related bottlenecks.
由于投資不足和與新冠疫情相關的瓶頸，許多成員國難以提高產出。
Bloombergnef, a research firm, notes that in December the club produced 747,000 fewer barrels a day than its quotas allowed.
研究公司Bloombergnef指出，去年12月份，該組織的日產量比其配額少了74.7萬桶。
The bear case rests on patience, a Persian restoration and a Permian boom.
看跌的理由在于耐心，波斯的恢復和二疊紀的繁榮。
If Russian exports are not cut off, then the impact of geopolitical tensions should dissipate by the summer.
如果俄羅斯出口沒有被切斷，那么地緣政治緊張局勢的影響應該會在夏季消散。
By then America will probably have raised interest rates, cooling growth and oil demand—just as extra supply from opec+ hits the market.
到那時，美國可能已經提高了利率，冷卻了經濟增長和石油需求——就像歐佩克+的額外供應沖擊市場一樣。
A resumption of Iran's nuclear deal, meanwhile, looks likelier than at any point since 2017, when it was torn apart.
與此同時，自2017年伊朗核協議破裂以來，重啟該協議的可能性似乎已經達到了最大值。
The associated lifting of sanctions could release another 1m bpd.
與此相關的制裁解除，可能會使石油日產量再增加100萬桶。
The real wild card is shale.
真正的不確定性因素是頁巖。
Until 2014, when opec orchestrated an oil-price crash, shale drillers raised cheap finance to ramp up output, turning America into the world's biggest producer of oil.
直到2014年，石油輸出國組織策劃了一場油價崩盤，頁巖油開采企業才通過廉價融資來提高產量，從而使美國成為世界上最大的石油生產國。
But investors, who went on to lose perhaps $300bn, are now demanding high returns.
但投資者現在要求的是高回報，他們隨后損失了大約3000億美元。
Oil bosses have talked of stern capital discipline.
石油老板們談到了嚴格的資本紀律。
Yet lofty prices are hard to resist.
然而，高昂的價格令人難以抗拒。
Baker Hughes, an oil-services firm, counts 610 active rigs in America in late January, 226 more than a year ago.
貝克休斯是一家石油服務公司，今年1月底在美國有610臺鉆機在使用，比一年前多出226臺。
Bnef predicts output in the Permian basin could rise by as much as 1m bpd by the end of 2023; ExxonMobil, an oil major, plans to increase output there by a quarter this year.
新能源財經（Bnef）預測，到2023年底，二疊紀盆地的日產量可能增加100萬桶；石油巨頭埃克森美孚計劃今年將那里的產量增加四分之一。
As energy philosophers like to say, the best cure for high prices is high prices.
正如能源哲學家喜歡說的那樣，解決高價格的最好辦法就是高價格。
