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Finance and Economics
財經版塊
Frequent-flyer schemes
常客計劃
Lifting off
起飛
Loyalty programmes have been a lifeline for airlines
忠誠計劃已經成為航空公司的命脈
WHEN EXECUTIVES at American Airlines unveiled the world's first frequent-flyer programme 40 years ago, they probably didn't imagine it would one day be worth more than the airline itself.
40年前，當美國航空公司的高管們推出世界上第一個常客計劃時，他們可能沒有想到這個計劃有一天會比航空公司本身更值錢。
Last year analysts valued the scheme at around $18bn-30bn, eclipsing the company's current market capitalisation of $12.9bn.
去年，分析師對該計劃的估值約為180億至300億美元，超過了該公司目前129億美元的市值。
Such programmes have proved a boon to American carriers in the pandemic.
事實證明，在疫情期間，這樣的計劃對美國的航空公司大有裨益。
Firms including American Airlines have raised $30bn in debt backed by the schemes.
在這些計劃的支持下，包括美國航空在內的公司共籌集了300億美元的債務性融資。
Airlines once hoped simply to foster loyalty by offering customers freebies.
航空公司曾只是希望通過提供免費贈品來培養顧客的忠誠度。
Passengers collected miles as they travelled and were awarded a free flight once they racked up enough of them.
乘客們在旅途中累積里程，一旦累積了足夠的里程數，就可以獲得一次免費飛行機會。
But schemes today are far more sophisticated.
但如今這些計劃變得更加復雜。
Airlines profit by selling miles to credit-card firms at a price that exceeds the cost of providing reward flights and dishing out other perks, such as hotel stays.
航空公司通過向信用卡公司出售里程而獲利，其售價超過了提供獎勵航班和提供其他額外津貼（如酒店住宿）的成本。
They also gain when miles expire unused or are cashed in for something of poor value.
他們還可以通過里程到期未使用或兌換一些不值錢的東西而獲利。
According to McKinsey, a consultancy, 15-30% of miles expired unused before the pandemic.
根據咨詢公司麥肯錫的數據，在疫情之前，有15-30%的里程是到期未使用的。
Credit-card issuers in turn use miles to lure customers with bonuses.
信用卡發卡機構反過來用里程來吸引顧客。
Airline-affiliated cards tend to rake in much more in transactions a year than other cards.
與其他卡相比，航空聯名卡每年的交易收入往往比其他卡要高得多。
Many miles are therefore earned not in the air, but through card spending on the ground.
因此，許多里程不是在空中飛行獲得的，而是通過在地面刷卡消費獲得的。
That explains why customers earned $6.8bn-worth of miles across big loyalty schemes in 2020, even as many kept to their homes.
這就解釋了為什么人在家中，但客戶在2020年的大型忠誠計劃中仍獲得了價值68億美元的里程。
If they were to rush to convert those miles into free flights as travel takes off again, the profitability of such schemes would be jeopardised.
如果旅行重啟，消費者們急于將這些里程兌換成免費航班，那么這類計劃的盈利將受到損害。
But airlines have another way to ensure that their programmes stay profitable: they can deflate the value of their miles.
但航空公司還有其他的辦法來保證他們的項目能夠獲利：他們可以降低里程的價值。
In the early 2010s American airlines began to calculate the value of a mile based on a complex formula of fares and routes.
在2010年代早期，美國航空公司就開始根據票價和航線的復雜公式來計算里程的價值。
In 2015 Delta Air Lines stopped disclosing how the value of its miles was calculated and embarked on a series of devaluations, prompting competitors to follow.
2015年達美航空不再公開里程價值的計算方式，并且開始了一系列的貶值行為，促使競爭對手效仿。
In the past year or so Delta, Southwest and United have devalued miles on major routes by 6-20%.
在過去的一年里，達美航空、西南航空和聯合航空將主要航線的里程貶值了6-20%。
Airlines have tapped loyalty schemes for cash before, by selling miles to credit-card firms at discounted rates.
航空公司曾利用忠誠計劃來套現，將飛行里程打折賣給信用卡公司。
United traded its miles with JPMorgan Chase, a bank, for $600m in the financial crisis.
在金融危機期間，聯合航空以6億美元的價格將里程賣給摩根大通銀行。
But the pandemic saw the first use of loyalty programmes as collateral in America, says Benjamin Metzger of Barclays, another bank.
另一家銀行巴克萊的Benjamin Metzger說，在疫情期間，忠誠計劃首次在美國用作抵押品。
United was the first to do so with a secured loan in June 2020. Delta followed with a bond offering soon after.
2020年6月，聯合航空率先以常客計劃擔保獲得了貸款。達美航空隨后，發行了債券。
The deals have attracted more investors than bonds secured by old aircraft (which, unlike loyalty schemes, depreciate).
這些交易比用舊飛機擔保的債券能吸引更多的投資者（與忠誠度計劃不同，舊飛機會貶值）。
Scheme-backed debt tends to boast a better credit rating than the airline issuing it.
常客計劃背書的債券往往比發行它的航空公司擁有更好的信用評級。
And investors are comforted by the structure of the deals, which use the schemes' cash flows to repay debt, and limit risk if an airline goes bust.
而且，這些交易的結構也讓投資者感到欣慰，這些交易利用計劃的現金流來償還債務，且能夠降低航空公司的破產風險。
Affinity Capital Exchange, a fintech firm, is working with JPMorgan to securitise air miles, so that they can be more easily traded.
親和資本交易（一家金融科技公司）正與摩根大通合作，將航空里程證券化，以便更容易地進行交易。
The trick for airlines in all this is to balance the costs and benefits of perks so that customers stay engaged, while carriers' margins are preserved.
對于航空公司來說，這一切的訣竅在于平衡津貼的成本和收益，以便在保持公司利潤的同時，留住顧客。
Endless devaluations could rattle that equilibrium and upset securitisation arrangements.
無休止的貶值可能會打破這種平衡，打亂證券化準備計劃。
Sky-high valuations are not assured.
不太可能有過高的價值。
