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Finance and Economics
財經版塊
Follow the money
跟著錢走
The only thing that proved transitory about inflation in America in 2021 was the consensus that it would subside.
事實證明，關于美國2021年的通貨膨脹，唯一短暫的是人們認為它會逐漸下降的共識。
The left-hand chart shows that analysts consistently revised up their predictions, trailing reality.
左邊的圖表顯示，分析師不斷向上修正他們的預測，還是落后于現實。
Consumer prices are now rising by nearly 7% compared with a year earlier, the fastest pace since 1982.
與去年同期相比，消費者價格上漲了近7%，這是自1982年以來的最快增速。
What does the future hold?
未來是什么樣子？
The right-hand chart presents two scenarios.
右邊的圖表顯示了兩種情況。
In the first, month-on-month inflation immediately falls back to its pre-pandemic trajectory.
第一種情況，月度環比通脹率立即回落至疫情前的水平。
Even so, it would take until the end of 2022 for annual inflation to slow to the 2% pace that used to be the norm.
即便如此，年通脹率要到2022年底才能降至2%，這在過去是常態。
In the second case, consumer prices rise at the same monthly clip seen over the past year.
第二種情況，消費者價格指數月度增幅與去年持平。
Annual inflation would soar to nearly 8% in February, and stay elevated.
2月份，年通貨膨脹率將飆升至近8%，并保持在較高水平。
Either way, one prediction seems rock-solid: the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates in 2022, as the central bank itself indicated on December 15th.
無論哪種情況，有一種預測似乎已成定局：美聯儲將在2022年開始加息，正如央行自己在12月15日表示的那樣。
