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America's GDP was first estimated to have fallen at an annual rate of 3.8% in the fourth quarter of 2008, compared with the previous three months.
在2008年，初步預(yù)測，與前個(gè)三月相比，美國第四季度GDP增長率下降將3.8%。
That was eventually revised to a decline of more than 8%,
最終該數(shù)據(jù)修正為下降超過8%，
in part because statisticians' guesses for some manufacturing inventories for the month of December were too optimistic.
部分原因是因?yàn)榻y(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家對12月份制造業(yè)庫存資產(chǎn)的猜測過于樂觀。
During the pandemic, these problems have been turned up a notch. Many businesses have temporarily stopped trading and thus responding to surveys.
在疫情時(shí)期，這些問題已經(jīng)上升了一個(gè)級別。很多企業(yè)暫停貿(mào)易，以應(yīng)對調(diào)查。
The sectors of the economy most affected by lockdowns, such as education, leisure and hospitality,
包括教育、休閑和酒店業(yè)在內(nèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)部門受封鎖影響最大，
often have the longest lags in reporting, making early estimates especially unreliable. In some cases, collecting data is impossible.
通常他們報(bào)告的滯后期也最長，這使得早期預(yù)測尤不可靠。在一些情況中，收集數(shù)據(jù)是不可能的。
In Britain a survey of travellers at airports and ports, which helps measure activity accounting for 20% of its trade in services, was halted in March.
在英國，一項(xiàng)針對機(jī)場和港口游客的調(diào)查在3月被叫停，該調(diào)查可以幫助衡量占其服務(wù)貿(mào)易20%的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)。
In response, statisticians are making quick fixes. In America the output of public-education services is usually estimated using teachers' pay.
統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家門通過進(jìn)行快速修補(bǔ)做出回應(yīng)。在美國，公共教育服務(wù)的產(chǎn)出通常是根據(jù)教師們的收入做出預(yù)測的。
But statisticians have weakened the link between pay and measured activity to reflect the fact that, though teachers continue to receive salaries,
但是統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家們?nèi)趸斯べY和可測量活動(dòng)之間的聯(lián)系，以此反映出這樣一個(gè)事實(shí)，即雖然老師繼續(xù)領(lǐng)工資，
students have missed hours of instruction. Others are using conversations with companies, statistical techniques and guesswork to fill in gaps.
但學(xué)生們卻已經(jīng)缺課很多個(gè)小時(shí)了。其他人則利用和公司對話、統(tǒng)計(jì)技術(shù)以及臆測來填補(bǔ)空白。
Many are also looking to make more drastic changes by incorporating "realtime" data.
還有很多統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)家希望通過合并“實(shí)時(shí)”數(shù)據(jù)來做出更大的改變。
Timely figures ranging from restaurant reservations to prices on Amazon are already widely used by private-sector economists.
私營部門的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家已經(jīng)廣泛使用餐廳預(yù)訂和亞馬遜商品價(jià)格等實(shí)時(shí)數(shù)據(jù)了。
Institutional inertia and tight budgets had led many statistics offices to shun them; now they have little choice but to experiment.
制度上的惰性以及緊縮的預(yù)算導(dǎo)致很多統(tǒng)計(jì)局回避這些數(shù)據(jù)；現(xiàn)在他們除了進(jìn)行嘗試，別無選擇。
A handful of those in the European Union are using credit-card data to help measure GDP.
一些歐盟國家的統(tǒng)計(jì)局正在使用信用卡數(shù)據(jù)幫助衡量GDP。
In place of the survey of international travellers, the ONS is looking at passenger numbers from the aviation regulator,
ONS正在研究航空監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)、輪渡以及歐洲之星車站的乘客人數(shù)和氣象數(shù)據(jù)
ferries and the Eurostar-as well as meteorological data. Other statisticians are scraping web pages.
以此替代針對國際游客的調(diào)查。其他數(shù)據(jù)分析師正在抓取網(wǎng)頁。
Things are tough now, but the wonks could emerge from the pandemic with a better understanding of how the economy really works.
現(xiàn)在情況仍然艱難，但學(xué)院派們可能會(huì)擺脫疫情的影響，對經(jīng)濟(jì)真正的運(yùn)作方式有一個(gè)更好的認(rèn)識。
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