評論
打印
In place where it has been long absent, it is hard to remember what a curse inflation is. In other places, it is hard to forget it. Take Zimbabwe.
在長期沒有通貨膨脹的地方，很難記得通貨膨脹詛咒是什么。在其他地方，則很難忘記。例如，津巴布韋。
In 2008 it suffered an inflation rate in the squillions. Prices doubled every few weeks, then every few days.
在2008年，津巴布韋遭遇巨額通貨膨脹。每隔幾周價格就翻一番，然后是每隔幾天。
Banknotes were so much confetti. Some people turned to equities as a store of value. A share purchased on Monday might be sold on Friday.
鈔票就像是五彩紙屑。有些人轉而把股票做為一種價值儲存手段。周一買進的股票，可能在周五就被賣掉。
Harare's stock exchange was almost like a cash machine.
哈拉雷的證券交易所幾乎就像是一臺自動提款機。
In principle, equities are a good hedge against inflation. Business revenues should track consumer prices; and shares are claims on that revenue.
原則上，股票是一種很好的對沖通貨膨脹的手段。企業收入應該遵循消費價格；股票是對該收入的索賠。
In some cases, they may be the only available hedge. Iran, for instance, has had one of the better performing stockmarkets,
在一些情況中，它們可能是唯一可用的對沖手段。例如，伊朗擁有表現較好的股票市場之一，
because locals have sought protection from inflation. Sanctions make it dangerous to keep money offshore.
因為當地居民從通貨膨脹中尋求保護。制裁使得將資金存放海外變得危險。
Rich-country investors have a different sort of headache. Though the immediate outlook is for inflation to stay low, it could plausibly pick up later on.
富裕國家的投資者則有另一種頭疼的問題。盡管當下的前景是通貨膨脹保持在低位，但它很有可能會在隨后回升。
If it does, edge cases like Zimbabwe or Iran are a bad guide. The link between inflation and equity returns is not straightforward.
如果回升，那么像津巴布韋或伊朗這樣的極端例子就會成為一個糟糕的導向。通貨膨脹和股權收益之間的關系并不簡單。
Stocks are a decent inflation hedge in the long run. But over shorter horizons, there is an inverse relationship.
從長遠來看，股票是一種不錯的通貨膨脹對沖工具。但在較短時間內，呈相反關系。
Rising inflation is associated with falling stock prices, and vice versa.
通貨膨脹上升與股價下跌相關，反之亦然。
Start with the evidence that stocks beat inflation over the long haul. In the most recent Credit Suisse global investment returns yearbook,
第一個證據是，從長遠來看，股票表現優于通貨膨脹。 在瑞士信貸集團近期的長期調查《全球投資回報年鑒》中，
a long-running survey, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton show that global equities have returned an average 5.2% a year above inflation since 1900.
Elroy Dimson、Paul Marsh以及Mike Staunton發現，自1900年以來，扣除通脹因素，全球股市平均每年的回報率為5.2%。
You may quibble that the survey covers the sorts of stable places that have had a long run of stock prices in the first place, such as Britain and America.
你或許會辯稱，這項調查涵蓋了那些股票價格長期穩定的國家，比如英國和美國。
Even so, the finding fits with intuition. When you buy the equity market, you buy a cross-section of a country's real assets.
即便如此這一發現符合直覺。當你購買股票市場時，你購買的是一個國家實際資產的一個截面。
Yet stock investors still need to be mindful of inflation.
但股票投資者仍需要警惕通貨膨脹。
Markets tend to put a lower value on a stream of cash flows when inflation rises; and a higher price on cash flows when it falls.
當通貨膨脹上升時，市場傾向于降低現金流的價值；當通脹下降時，則會抬高現金流價值。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
