評(píng)論
打印
There are competing theories for the inverse relationship; many date from the late 1970s and early 1980s.
相反關(guān)系中存在各種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)理論；其中很多要追溯到20世紀(jì)70年代末至20世紀(jì)80年代。
A paper written by Franco Modigliani and Richard Cohn in 1979 put it down to "money illusion":
1979年，F(xiàn)ranco Modigliani和Richard Cohn的一篇論文將其歸因于“貨幣幻覺”：
rising inflation leads to falling stock prices because investors discount future earnings by reference to higher nominal bond yields.
通貨膨脹上升導(dǎo)致股價(jià)下降，因?yàn)橥顿Y者根據(jù)較高名義債券收益率貼現(xiàn)未來收益。
The correct discount factor is a real yield (ie, excluding compensation for expected inflation).
正確的貼現(xiàn)因子是實(shí)際收益（例如，不包括預(yù)期通貨膨脹的補(bǔ)償）。
Other theories said that inflation is merely a reflection of deeper forces that hurt stock prices;
其他理論稱，通貨膨脹只不過是影響股價(jià)的更深層次因素的反應(yīng)；
an overheating economy; rising uncertainty; political instability.
一種過熱的經(jīng)濟(jì)；不斷增長(zhǎng)的不確定性；政治不穩(wěn)定性。
In the decades since then, inflation has steadily declined. Stocks have re-rated.
在此之后的幾十年中，通貨膨脹穩(wěn)步下降。股票重新評(píng)估。
Investors have been willing to pay an ever-higher price for a given stream of future earnings.
投資者一直愿意支付更高的價(jià)格來?yè)Q取既定的未來收益流。
You might put this down to the Modigliani-Cohn effect in reverse, since nominal bond yields have also fallen.
你或許會(huì)反過來將它歸因于Modigliani-Cohn效應(yīng)，因?yàn)槊x債券收益率也下降了。
But so too have long-term real bond yields. The real rate of interest needed to keep inflation stable is lower.
但長(zhǎng)期實(shí)際債券收益率也是如此。保持通貨膨脹穩(wěn)定所需的實(shí)際利率更低。
Now for the headache. For the most part, financial markets reflect the view that inflation will remain low.
現(xiàn)在來看看讓他們頭疼的問題。在很大程度上，金融市場(chǎng)反映了對(duì)通貨膨脹將保持低位的觀點(diǎn)。
Nominal bond yields are negative in much of Europe and barely positive in America. In stockmarkets, there has for a while been a sharp divide.
歐洲大部分地區(qū)的名義債券收益率為負(fù)，而美國(guó)的則勉強(qiáng)為正。在股票市場(chǎng)，有一段時(shí)間出現(xiàn)了一個(gè)巨大分歧。
Companies that do well in disinflationary environments (technology, branded goods) are expensive;
在反通脹環(huán)境下表現(xiàn)良好的公司（科技、品牌商品）價(jià)格昂貴；
businesses that might do better in inflationary ones (commodities, real-estate and banking) have generally lagged behind.
而在通脹環(huán)境中表現(xiàn)更好的公司（日用品、房地產(chǎn)以及銀行）則普遍落后了。
The immediate prospect is indeed for an excess of supply. The unemployment rate in America is close to 15%. Inflation is already falling.
眼下的前景確實(shí)是供應(yīng)過剩。美國(guó)失業(yè)率接近15%。通脹已然正在下降。
Further out, though, the outlook for inflation is murkier. There is no shortage of pundits who say it is primed to pick up. They have a case.
然而從長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)來看，通貨膨脹的前景更加撲朔迷離。不乏有權(quán)威人士稱，其已做好回升的準(zhǔn)備。他們有一個(gè)證據(jù)。
Globalisation, a key reason for the secular decline in inflation, is reversing. Big companies are likely to emerge from the crisis with more pricing power.
通貨膨脹長(zhǎng)期下降的一個(gè)關(guān)鍵因素——全球化，正在逆轉(zhuǎn)。大公司更有可能通過其更大的定價(jià)權(quán)擺脫危機(jī)。
The rise of populism in rich countries is hard to square with endlessly low inflation. Fiscal stimulus is in favour.
富裕國(guó)家民粹主義的崛起很難與無休止的低通脹相協(xié)調(diào)。財(cái)政刺激是有利的。
The more government debt piles up, the greater the temptation to try to inflate it away.
政府累積的負(fù)債越多，試圖通過膨脹消除負(fù)債的誘惑就越大。
For all such speculation, it is far from clear whether, how fast and by how much inflation might rise.
對(duì)于所有這類推測(cè)，我們對(duì)于通貨膨脹是否會(huì)上升，上升的速度以及上升的額度還不得而知。
A modest pickup might even be good for stock prices especially in Europe, where bourses are tilted towards the cyclical stocks most hurt by unduly low inflation.
小幅回升甚至可能對(duì)股價(jià)有利，尤其是在歐洲，那里的交易所傾向于那些因通脹過低而受影響最嚴(yán)重的周期性股票。
But it is foolish to believe that inflation will leave your stock portfolio unharmed--and too easy to forget the damage it can do.
但相信通脹不會(huì)對(duì)你的股票投資組合造成傷害是很愚蠢的，而且很容易就忘記了通脹所能造成的影響。
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