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"We've been gambling up to this point," says Tim Bardole, a soyabean farmer from Iowa.
“到目前為止，我們一直在賭，”蒂姆·巴多爾，一名來自愛荷華州的豆農說到。
After the price of soyabeans crashed last summer, he held on to most of his harvest and waited for the market to recover.
自去年夏天大豆價格暴跌后，他留下了自己的大部分大豆收成，等著市場恢復。
But seven months later, and with large loans to repay, he sold up. "We decided we'd better take what we have," he says.
但是七個月后，他償還完大額貸款便把手頭的大豆都賣掉了?！拔覀冋J為我們最好是見好就收?！彼硎?。
The cause of the crash was a 25% tariff on American soyabeans imposed by China, the world's biggest importer,
價格暴跌的原因是美國對出口中國的大豆征收25%的關稅，中國是世界最大的進口國，
as one shot in the trade war between the two countries. Yet peace is supposedly in the offing.
這是美國在兩國貿易戰中的一擊。但據推測和平即將來到。
The two countries are locked in negotiations over a deal, ahead of a deadline of March 1st that has been imposed by America
美國定于3月1日對中國產品加征關稅，但在此期限之前兩國仍在為達成一份協議進行談判，
(though on February 19th President Donald Trump declared the timing to be flexible).
（雖然2月19日，唐納德·特朗普總統宣布時間有所變動）。
That Mr Bardole cut his losses despite those talks is not that surprising.
盡管兩國進行多次對話，但巴多爾趕緊脫手以免多受損失的做法并不奇怪。
Even if the tariff is lifted—which is far from certain—the past year's disruption will probably leave a permanent scar.
雖然免除了關稅—目前并不能確定—但之前的破裂可能留下永久的傷疤。
The trade war caught American soyabean farmers at a particularly bad time.
貿易戰爭找上美國大豆農民的時機很糟糕。
They had just planted a bumper crop, encouraged by strong demand and a drought in Argentina, a competitor.
受競爭對手阿根廷干旱和需求強勁的鼓舞，他們剛剛種下了大批豐產作物。
When the tariff was implemented it was too late to switch to other crops such as corn.
關稅實施時，轉種其他作物，如玉米，已經太晚了。
Demand from China—which in 2017 accounted for 60% of American exports—collapsed. The result was a glut.
中國的需求—2017年中國需求占美國出口的60%—暴跌。結果大豆供過于求。
To replace American beans China has ramped up its imports from Brazil, pushing up prices in South America.
為了替換美國大豆，中國已經增加了從巴西的進口，推高了南非大豆的價格。
Meanwhile the European Union, Mexico and even Argentina have been tempted by low American prices—but not enough to replace lost Chinese demand.
同時，歐盟、墨西哥，甚至是阿根廷都被美國大豆的低價所誘惑—但這還不足以彌補中國需求的損失。
To help American farmers cope, Mr Trump's administration handed them a one-off payment of $1.65 per bushel ($61 per tonne).
為了幫助美國農民，特朗普政府為他們提供了每蒲式耳1.65美元的一次性付款（每公噸61美元）。
Without it Mr Bardole would have lost money on this year's crop.
沒有這次補助，巴多爾今年的農作物會虧本。
He might have sold his crop anyway, but the support has allowed others to sit on theirs.
不管怎樣他可能已經賣掉了自己的農作物，但其他人壓下了自己的農作物。
Farmers will have 25m tonnes of beans in stock at the end of this year's selling season, according to an official estimate, up from 12m tonnes last year.
根據官方估計，今年銷售旺季末，農民們將儲存有250萬公噸的豆子，多于去年的120萬公噸。
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