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U.S. economic indicators point to growth but with uncertainty
美國經濟顯出增長跡象但不穩定
Things are looking up in America as the economy appears to be picking up steam. Going by the latest economic indicators,unemployment is down, manufacturing is up and the GDP has beat forecasts. But does this mean it’s time to breathe a sigh of relief? Not quite.
Here’s the good news. In the last week of July, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to their lowest levels in more than five years.
U.S. manufacturing is at its strongest in two years on the back of rising production and hiring.
"America may be improving faster than we think, and you know, I hate to say this, there’s always a good and a bad."said Stephen Leeb,economist of Leeb Group.
Now here’s the not-so-good news. Different sectors of the U.S. economy have been sending what appear to be conflicting signals, creating an underlying and persistent uncertainty.
America’s gross domestic product has grown 1.7 percent. That beat expectations, but remains at historical lows.
"People are sort of associating the relatively low GDP numbers - 1.7 percent yesterday - with a very, very slow, ragged economy. But it may be not that. It may be that the employment numbers are telling much more the picture and you also had a very, very good number today. You had manufacturing survey coming in at 55. That’s a very big number. That’s a number that is very often consistent with 3 or 4 percent growth."said Leeb.
There are also mixed views on inflation.
The U.S. Federal Reserve, while holding steady on its stimulus policy, flagged low inflation as a concern, even though the cost of just about everything Americans need clothing, food and housing is up.
"What is soaring and what is doing very well oil is at a $107, $108 a barrel and that’s getting to the point where it’s inflationary."said Leeb.
Economist Stephen Leeb expects Friday’s monthly job figures to be better than expected, but with gas at about four dollars per gallon in some parts of the U.S. - and wages that have remained largely stagnant - it’s hard to make the case that things are really getting better in America.
