評論
打印
In his first term he used it to force Mexico to start keeping migrants on its own side of the border while their asylum claims were processed.
在他的第一個任期內，他利用這一規定迫使墨西哥開始將移民留在美墨邊境的墨西哥一側，同時處理他們的庇護申請。
Mexico deployed some 15,000 troops to its northern border to curb the migrants' northbound flow, and 6,500 to its southern one.
墨西哥向其北部邊境部署了約15000名士兵，以遏制移民向北流動，向南部邊境部署了6500名士兵。
As well as another deployment on a similar scale, this time Mr Trump will try to force Mexico to accept "safe third country" status so that non-Mexican migrants must claim asylum in Mexico instead of the United States.
除了另一次類似規模的部署外，特朗普這次還將試圖迫使墨西哥接受“安全第三國”地位，以便非墨西哥移民必須在墨西哥而不是美國尋求庇護。
Mexico has flatly refused this, calling it a "red line".
墨西哥斷然拒絕了這一要求，稱其為“紅線”。
He may also tell Mexico to co-operate in accepting back some of the almost 5m Mexicans who live in the United States after entering it illegally.
特朗普還可能要求墨西哥合作，接受近500萬非法進入美國后居住在美國的一部分墨西哥人。
They are among the millions of people he promises to deport.
他們是特朗普承諾驅逐的數百萬人之一。
Even Mr Trump's most hyperbolic threat—to bomb Mexico's criminal gangs to halt the production of fentanyl,
即使是特朗普最夸張的威脅——轟炸墨西哥犯罪團伙以停止芬太尼的生產，
a synthetic opioid that killed some 75,000 people in the United States last year—may feel less like a bluff to Mexican officials facing Mr Trump's second term.
芬太尼是一種合成阿片類藥物，去年在美國導致約75000人死亡——對面臨特朗普第二任期的墨西哥官員來說，可能也感覺不那么虛張聲勢。
Law enforcement agencies in the United States have increasingly worked against Mexico's criminal groups without Mexico's co-operation in recent years.
近年來，在沒有墨西哥合作的情況下，美國執法機構越來越多地打擊墨西哥犯罪集團。
Mr Trump's officials are unlikely to have much appetite for joint action.
特朗普的官員不太可能對聯合行動有太大興趣。
He has suggested designating Mexico's gangs as foreign terrorist organisations to give his government still more leeway to go after them.
他建議將墨西哥的團伙指定為外國恐怖組織，以便讓政府有更多空間追捕他們。
In private, Mexican officials have digested Mr Trump's win with resignation. "Unlike 2016, it was not a surprise," says one.
私下里，墨西哥官員已經以辭職來抵消特朗普的勝利。“與2016年不同，這并不意外，”一位官員說。
Ms Sheinbaum has responded with optimism, announcing that Mexico has "no reason to worry" about the United States' president-elect.
辛鮑姆對此持樂觀態度，宣布墨西哥“沒有理由擔心”美國的候任總統。
She felt the need to emphasise that Mexico is a "free, independent, sovereign country".
她覺得有必要強調墨西哥是一個“自由獨立的主權國家”。
Nonetheless, she will have to play Mr Trump's transactional game and come up with offers tempting enough to fend off tariffs.
盡管如此，她將不得不玩特朗普的交易游戲，并提出足夠誘人的提議來抵御關稅。
Mexico does have some leverage, especially on migration, which it has proved willing to use.
墨西哥確實有一些籌碼，特別是在移民問題上，事實證明它愿意利用這些籌碼。
The number of irregular migrants crossing the border with the United States fell by 77% between December 2023 and August this year, largely thanks to enforcement by Mexico.
2023年12月至今年8月期間，越過美國邊境的非法移民數量下降了77%，這主要歸功于墨西哥的執法。
Ms Sheinbaum could do as Mr Trump wants and deploy even more soldiers to deal with migrants.
辛鮑姆可以按照特朗普的意愿行事，部署更多士兵來處理移民問題。
Mexico is no longer just a route through which migrants reach the United States, but a destination in its own right too.
墨西哥不再只是移民到達美國的路線，它本身也是一個目的地。
So Mexico's interests could converge with Mr Trump's, says Ms Abed.
Abed說，墨西哥的利益可能與特朗普的利益相一致。
Indeed, one Mexican official says they would be "delighted" if the United States managed to stem chaos at the border. But it is unclear how much more Mexico can do.
事實上，一位墨西哥官員表示，如果美國能夠遏制邊境混亂，他們會“很高興”。但目前尚不清楚墨西哥還能做多少。
Even with better technology and a lot more money it will not be possible to stop everyone who wishes to pass through its large and varied territory to cross the 3,200km-long (2,000-mile) border with the United States.
即使擁有更好的技術和更多的資金，也不可能阻止所有希望穿越其廣闊而多樣的領土穿越3200公里（2000英里）長的美國邊境的人。
It would be more controversial to work with Mr Trump to accept back deported Mexicans, breaking up families.
與特朗普合作接受被驅逐的墨西哥人回來會更具爭議性，拆散家庭。
"Giving something for nothing is very dangerous," says Mr Castaneda.
“不勞而獲是非常危險的，”卡斯塔涅達說道。
On trade, Mexico wants to convince Mr Trump that it can be a useful part of a regional bloc to out-compete China by working together.
在貿易方面，墨西哥希望說服特朗普，墨西哥可以成為地區集團的有用組成部分，通過合作戰勝中國。
Officials say they will encourage companies to source more of their components from Mexico rather than China.
官員們表示，他們將鼓勵企業從墨西哥而不是中國采購更多零部件。
That is easier said than done, especially when many of those importing Chinese parts are American companies.
說起來容易做起來難，尤其是當許多進口中國零部件的公司都是美國公司的時候。
On security, Ms Sheinbaum is more serious than her predecessor about tackling Mexico's gangs.
在安全方面，辛鮑姆比她的前任更認真地打擊墨西哥的黑幫。
Her security policy, which includes better intelligence-gathering and information-sharing, offers opportunities for bilateral co-operation, too.
她的安全政策包括更好的情報收集和信息共享，也為雙邊合作提供了機會。
Mr Trump will not be able to do everything he has threatened.
特朗普不可能做到他所威脅的一切。
But even if he carries out a fraction of it, Mexico is in for a rough ride.
但即使他只實現了其中的一小部分，墨西哥也將面臨艱難的處境。
