評論
打印
Mr Trump's victory in 2016, amid relatively high turnout, offers evidence for this view.
特朗普在2016年相對較高的投票率下獲勝，為這一觀點提供了證據(jù)。
America's higher voting rates may not endure beyond the Trump era, but the stunning rise of early voting almost certainly will.
特朗普時代之后，美國的高投票率可能不會持續(xù)，但提前投票的驚人增長幾乎肯定會持續(xù)。
Between mail ballots and early in-person voting, 64% of Americans cast their ballots before election day in 2020, up from 42% in 2016.
在郵寄選票和提前親自投票之間，64%的美國人在2020年選舉日之前投了票，高于2016年的42%。
Covid accelerated this, but early voting had grown steadily since the 1990s, as "convenience voting" spread to the great majority of states.
新冠疫情加速了這一進程，但自20世紀90年代以來，隨著“便利投票”蔓延到絕大多數(shù)州，提前投票一直在穩(wěn)步增長。
The total early vote may fall back this year in the absence of covid, but for campaign managers, "Tuesday's Gone", as the title of a book about early voting by Mr Fullmer puts it.
如果沒有新冠疫情，今年的提前投票總數(shù)可能會下降，但對于競選經(jīng)理來說，正如富爾默先生關(guān)于提前投票的書名所說，“Tuesday's Gone”。
This year, more than 26 million voters have already returned mail-in ballots or cast in-person early votes.
今年，已有超過2600萬選民寄回了郵寄選票或親自提前投票。
Divining insights from these about how the election will ultimately turn out is difficult.
從中預(yù)測選舉最終結(jié)果的見解很困難。
Yet some of the early numbers are feeding Democratic anxieties.
然而，一些早期數(shù)據(jù)加劇了民主黨人的焦慮。
The Republican share of early returned mail ballots has risen from 27% last time to 32% so far in 2024, while the share enjoyed by Democrats has held at just under 48%.
共和黨在提前郵寄選票中所占的份額已從上次的27%上升到2024年迄今為止的32%，而民主黨所占的份額保持在略低于48%。
Mr Trump's supporters find this encouraging, but "there's still debate as to whether early voting is just cannibalising election-day vote, or if you actually get new voters in the mix," notes Jacob Neiheisel of the University at Buffalo.
特朗普的支持者認為這令人鼓舞，但“關(guān)于提前投票是否只是蠶食選舉日的選票，或者是否真的有新的選民加入進來，仍然存在爭議，”布法羅大學的雅各布·內(nèi)海塞爾(Jacob Neiheisel)指出。
Early voting has given rise to a new subtribe of statistics geeks and scholars who interrogate the initial returns for insights.
提前投票催生了一群新的統(tǒng)計極客和學者，他們從最初的投票結(jié)果中尋找見解。
John Ralston, a veteran journalist in Nevada, has attracted a devoted following in his swing state. Our model has the state as a toss-up.
內(nèi)華達州的資深記者約翰·拉爾斯頓(John Ralston)在他的搖擺州吸引了一批忠實的追隨者。我們的模型將該州視為勝負難料。
Mr Ralston sees "serious danger" for the Harris campaign in early-vote figures showing that Republicans had returned more ballots than Democrats.
拉爾斯頓認為，提前投票數(shù)據(jù)顯示共和黨人比民主黨人返回的選票更多，這對哈里斯的競選活動來說“非常危險”。
Yet the margins remain tight in polls and in other early-vote figures.
然而，民意調(diào)查和其他早期投票數(shù)據(jù)表明，民主黨和共和黨的差距仍然很小。
In North Carolina, by October 23rd, Democrats had lodged just 10,000 more votes than Republicans out of more than 1 million early votes cast.
在北卡羅來納州，截至10月23日，在超過100萬張早期投票中，民主黨僅比共和黨多投了10000票。
As in Nevada, The Economist's forecast shows a dead heat in Michigan.
與內(nèi)華達州一樣，《經(jīng)濟學人》的預(yù)測顯示密歇根州兩黨勢均力敵。
High participation among working-class voters in western Michigan, a key Trump constituency, could tip the election towards Republicans.
密歇根州西部是特朗普的關(guān)鍵選區(qū)，工薪階層選民的高參與率可能會使選舉結(jié)果偏向共和黨。
A surge of voting among young, black and Hispanic voters could benefit Ms Harris.
年輕、黑人和西班牙裔選民的投票激增可能對哈里斯有利。
The polling could be wrong, but neither campaign wants to take that chance.
民意調(diào)查可能有誤，但雙方都不想冒這個險。
Both are aggressively working to encourage their likely voters.
雙方都在積極努力鼓勵可能的選民。
Team Harris has 52 campaign offices and more than 375 staff in Michigan and has signed up 100,000 volunteers since Ms Harris's late entry into the race.
哈里斯團隊在密歇根州擁有52個競選辦公室和375多名工作人員，自哈里斯遲遲加入競選以來，已經(jīng)招募了100000名志愿者。
Republicans heavily rely on a constellation of efforts between outside groups, down-ballot campaigns and the Trump operation itself.
共和黨嚴重依賴外部團體、下級競選活動和特朗普行動本身之間的一系列努力。
Victoria LaCivita, communications director for the Trump campaign in Michigan, says the former president is seeing growing "support from people and states that Democrats have taken for granted".
密歇根州特朗普競選團隊的通訊主管維多利亞·拉西維塔(Victoria LaCivita)表示，這位前總統(tǒng)正看到“民主黨人認為理所當然的民眾和州的支持”日益增加。
Elissa Slotkin, a Democratic Senate candidate, recently made a campaign stop at Central Michigan University.
民主黨參議員候選人艾麗莎·斯洛特金(Elissa Slotkin)最近在中央密歇根大學進行了競選活動。
She closed her expertly delivered stump speech by joking that those who had come to hear her were either "deep political nerds" or "engaged citizens".
在結(jié)束她精湛的競選演講時，她開玩笑說，來聽她演講的人要么是“政治迷”，要么是“積極參與的公民”。
She implored them to "please bother your friends" and make sure they vote.
她懇求他們“麻煩你的朋友”并確保他們投票。
One student said he was certainly going to vote early: at least, then, "the text messages [will] stop."
一名學生說他肯定會提前投票：至少到那時，“短信將停止”。
