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For the first time since August, Donald Trump has overtaken Kamala Harris in The Economist's statistical model of America's presidential election.
自8月以來，唐納德·特朗普首次在《經濟學人》的美國總統大選統計模型中超越卡瑪拉·哈里斯。
Our latest forecast gives Mr Trump a 53% chance of returning to the White House, up seven percentage points in the past week.
我們最新的預測顯示，特朗普重返白宮的可能性為53%，比過去一周上升了7個百分點。
Although the race remains more or less a coin toss, it is now weighted slightly in Mr Trump's direction.
盡管這場競選或多或少仍然是一半一半的概率，但現在特朗普略占上風。
The shift in our model reflects a steady narrowing of Ms Harris's lead in national polls during the past month.
我們模型的變化反映了哈里斯過去一個月在全國民調中領先優勢穩步縮小。
State-specific polls published in the past week confirm that Mr Trump's position has strengthened slightly in the plausibly decisive states.
過去一周公布的州級民意調查證實，特朗普在可能具有決定性意義的州的地位略有增強。
Clues to what will happen on November 5th are not only to be found in polls. Millions of Americans have already voted.
11月5日將發生什么的線索不僅存在于民意調查中。數百萬美國人已經投票。
Nobody knows whom they voted for, but it is possible to compare turnout with previous cycles and draw inferences from that.
沒有人知道他們投給了誰，但可以將投票率與前幾輪的投票率進行比較，并從中得出推論。
Both parties are putting their energy into turning out their bases.
兩黨都在投入精力來爭取自己的選民支持。
Elon Musk's legally murky scheme to give away $1 million a day to registered voters in swing states—apparently to spur voting by supporters of Mr Trump—has lately drawn a spotlight.
埃隆·馬斯克計劃每天向搖擺州的登記選民贈送100萬美元，遭到違法警告，最近引起了人們的關注，顯然他是為了刺激特朗普支持者的投票。
Yet many other less profligate attempts to lift turnout are shaping the final, frenzied days of the race between Mr Trump and Ms Harris.
然而，最后幾天的白熱化階段，許多其他不那么揮霍的提高投票率的舉措正在影響特朗普和哈里斯之間的競爭結果。
One group is distributing 100,000 copies of a "Liberty Knights" comic book in Philadelphia, to inspire young adults to turn out.
一個組織正在費城分發10萬本“自由騎士”漫畫書，以鼓勵年輕人投票。
Central Votes, which targets students at Central Michigan University, has offered inducements such as "walking tacos" (smashed-up bags of crisps mixed with ground meat), pickles on a stick ("voting is a big dill") and even a petting zoo with goats.
針對中央密歇根大學學生的Central Votes提供了諸如“行走的玉米餅”（搗碎的薯片袋和碎肉混合）、串泡菜（“投票是件大事”）甚至還有山羊的寵物動物園等誘因。
Turnout in 2020 was the highest in an American election since 1900. Mr Trump's polarising presidency was one big factor.
2020年的投票率是1900年以來美國大選的最高投票率。特朗普兩極分化的總統任期是一個重要因素。
Covid was another, as it led to emergency measures to make voting by mail easier.
另一個因素是新冠疫情，它導致采取緊急措施，使郵寄投票更加容易。
This time, covid restrictions have vanished but Mr Trump decidedly has not.
這一次，新冠疫情限制已經消失，但特朗普這個因素顯然沒有消失。
One critical question is whether voter participation in 2024 will remain so elevated, and if not, who might benefit.
一個關鍵問題是，2024年的選民參與率是否會保持如此高位，如果不是，誰會受益。
Analysts are also scouring early-vote numbers for clues about who might ultimately win; some detect warning signs for the Harris campaign.
分析師也在仔細研究早期投票數據，以尋找誰可能最終獲勝的線索；一些人發現了哈里斯競選活動的警告信號。
Provisional evidence suggests that voter enthusiasm remains high.
初步證據表明，選民熱情仍然很高。
Early in-person voters in Georgia have shattered records, with 1.5 million turning up in the first eight days, compared with just 1 million in 2020.
佐治亞州的早期現場投票者打破了紀錄，前八天就有150萬人到場投票，而2020年只有100萬人。
North Carolina, another swing state, has also exceeded 2020's comparable figures, but more modestly.
另一個搖擺州北卡羅來納州也超過了2020年的可比數字，但幅度較小。
Officials in Maricopa County, Arizona, the most populous jurisdiction in that swing state, project turnout similar to 2020.
亞利桑那州馬里科帕縣是該搖擺州人口最多的管轄區，該縣的官員預測投票率與2020年相似。
Turnout may yet falter. If so, would this favour Mr Trump or Ms Harris?
投票率可能還會下降。如果是這樣，這會有利于特朗普還是哈里斯？
For decades, political-science research found that Republicans benefited from lower turnout caused by factors such as bad weather, while Democrats benefited from higher turnout.
幾十年來，政治學研究發現，由于惡劣天氣等因素導致的投票率較低，共和黨受益，而民主黨受益于投票率較高。
But Mr Trump's takeover of the Republican Party has changed the equation.
但特朗普接管共和黨改變了這一局面。
His Republican coalition now draws more from working-class voters, whereas the Democratic coalition has shifted to draw heavily on those with college degrees.
他的共和黨聯盟現在更多地吸引工人階級選民，而民主黨聯盟則轉向大量吸引擁有大學學位的選民。
This means old beliefs about turnout and partisan advantage must be reconsidered.
這意味著必須重新考慮關于投票率和黨派優勢的舊觀念。
"We can no longer make the assumption that high-turnout elections are universally good for Democrats," says Elliot Fullmer, a political scientist at Randolph-Macon College.
“我們不能再假設高投票率選舉對民主黨普遍有利，”蘭道夫-梅肯學院政治學家埃利奧特·富爾默（Elliot Fullmer）說道。
