評論
打印
Policy commitments made by President-elect Donald Trump often lack precision.
候任總統(tǒng)唐納德·特朗普所做的政策承諾往往缺乏精確性。
Not so on November 4th, the final day of campaigning, at a rally in North Carolina.
11月4日，競選活動的最后一天，在北卡羅來納州的一次集會上，情況并非如此。
Mr Trump kicked it off by announcing that one of his first calls as president would be to Mexico's President Claudia Sheinbaum.
特朗普首先宣布，他作為總統(tǒng)的首要任務(wù)之一將是與墨西哥總統(tǒng)克勞迪婭·辛鮑姆通話。
"I'm going to inform her, on day one or sooner, that if they don't stop this onslaught of criminals and drugs coming into our country,
我將在第一天或更早的時候通知她，如果他們不停止對我們國家罪犯和毒品的這種襲擊，
I am going to immediately impose a 25% tariff on everything they send into the United States of America."
我將立即對他們運往美利堅合眾國的所有東西征收25%的關(guān)稅。
Mr Trump's policy could not have been much clearer.
特朗普先生的政策再清楚不過了。
"You're the first ones I've told it to," he told the cheering crowd.
“你們是我第一個宣布這件事的人，”他告訴歡呼的人群。
There is little to suggest that his threat this time is not serious.
種種跡象表明他這次的威脅很嚴重。
Ending illegal migration across the United States' southern border is one of the chief promises that led to Mr Trump's historic re-election.
結(jié)束美國南部邊境的非法移民是導(dǎo)致特朗普歷史性連任的主要承諾之一。
In his victory speech on November 6th he declared that "nothing will stop me from keeping my word".
在11月6日的勝選演講中，他宣稱“沒有什么能阻止我信守諾言”。
Along with the Republicans' likely control of Congress, Mr Trump's victory is a "nightmare scenario" for Mexico, laments Jorge Castaneda, a former foreign minister.
隨著共和黨可能控制國會，特朗普的勝利對墨西哥來說是一場“噩夢般的場景”，前外交部長豪爾赫·卡斯塔涅達感嘆道。
The slump in the peso, which reached 20.8 to the dollar after the race was called for Mr Trump, its lowest rate in two years, illustrates the scale of the economic damage that investors believe Mexico could suffer.
比索暴跌，在特朗普當(dāng)選后，比索兌美元匯率達到了20.8，為兩年來的最低點，這說明了投資者認為墨西哥可能遭受的經(jīng)濟損失的規(guī)模。
During Mr Trump's first term, the country benefited from the tariffs applied to China.
在特朗普的第一個任期內(nèi)，該國從對中國征收的關(guān)稅中受益。
Companies looked to Mexico as an alternative production site, a trend boosted by the pandemic, which incentivised shorter supply chains.
公司將墨西哥視為替代生產(chǎn)地，這一趨勢因疫情而得到推動，因為疫情促使供應(yīng)鏈縮短。
In 2021 Mexico overtook China to become the United States' biggest trade partner. All that is now imperilled.
2021年，墨西哥超過中國，成為美國最大的貿(mào)易伙伴。而這一切現(xiàn)在都處于危險之中。
Ms Sheinbaum and her team are in a "near-shoring bubble", says Lila Abed, head of the Mexican Institute at the Wilson Centre, a think-tank in Washington.
華盛頓智庫威爾遜中心的墨西哥研究所所長莉拉·阿貝德（Lila Abed）表示，辛鮑姆及其團隊處于“近岸外包泡沫”中。
"Reshoring [to the United States] and protectionism are back."
“回岸外包（回到美國）和保護主義又回來了。”
Several American firms have paused planned investments in Mexico, including Tesla, run by Mr Trump's buddy, Elon Musk.
幾家美國公司已經(jīng)暫停了在墨西哥的計劃投資，包括由特朗普的好友埃隆·馬斯克經(jīng)營的特斯拉。
Mr Trump has no qualms about putting tariffs on allies and adversaries alike.
特朗普心安理得地對盟友和對手同樣征收關(guān)稅。
He hates trade deficits, and the United States imported $152bn more in goods from Mexico than it sold to it last year.
他討厭貿(mào)易逆差，而去年美國從墨西哥進口的商品比出口到墨西哥的商品多1520億美元。
That was the largest deficit the United States ran with any country bar China.
這是美國與除中國外的其他任何國家的最大貿(mào)易逆差。
Even if Mexico somehow escapes tariffs, Mr Trump might break the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) through other means,
即使墨西哥以某種方式逃脫了關(guān)稅，特朗普也可能通過其他手段破壞《美國-墨西哥-加拿大協(xié)定》（USMCA），
despite having negotiated it during his first term to replace the North American Free Trade Agreement.
盡管他在第一個任期內(nèi)通過談判達成了該協(xié)定，以取代《北美自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定》。
He says he wants to turn a review of the deal in 2026 into a renegotiation. One reason is anger over Chinese investment in Mexico.
他說，他希望將2026年對該協(xié)議的審查轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)橹匦抡勁小Ｒ粋€原因是對中國在墨西哥的投資感到憤怒。
He rails against Chinese-made cars flooding into the United States from Mexico, ignoring the fact that no Chinese firm has yet produced a single car there.
他抨擊中國制造的汽車從墨西哥涌入美國，卻忽略了一個事實，即還沒有一家中國公司在那里生產(chǎn)過一輛汽車。
Mexico's government has just made itself more vulnerable on USMCA.
墨西哥政府剛剛讓自己在USMCA上變得更加脆弱。
Its recent constitutional changes to its justice system are potentially in breach of the treaty.
其近期對司法系統(tǒng)的憲法修改可能違反了該條約。
Disrupting the North American trading bloc would hurt all three of its members.
破壞北美貿(mào)易集團會傷害其所有三個成員國。
Putting tariffs on Mexican imports would raise prices for consumers in the United States. But Mexico would suffer most.
對墨西哥進口商品征收關(guān)稅會提高美國消費者的價格。但墨西哥將遭受最大的損失。
A whopping 83% of its exports go to the United States, worth about a third of its GDP. Its economy, already sluggish, could fall into recession.
高達83%的出口流向美國，價值約占其國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值的三分之一。已經(jīng)很不景氣的經(jīng)濟可能會陷入衰退。
Ms Sheinbaum's cash-strapped government would then be left without the money to pay for the social programmes that are the foundation of its support,
辛鮑姆資金緊張的政府屆時將沒有資金來支付作為其支持基礎(chǔ)的社會項目，
let alone the cost of the massive enforcement that Mr Trump wants Mexico to enact to stem the flow of migrants.
更不用說特朗普希望墨西哥為阻止移民流動而實施的大規(guī)模執(zhí)法的費用了。
Mr Trump says his tariff threats have a "100% chance of working".
特朗普表示，他的關(guān)稅威脅有“百分之百的成功機會”。
His confidence may stem from having successfully wielded the threat of tariffs against Mexico before.
他的信心可能源于此前成功將關(guān)稅大棒揮向墨西哥。
