評論
打印
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are sure to be on the ballot in November in all 50 states. Not so all the would-be candidates from third parties.
11月，卡瑪拉·哈里斯和唐納德·特朗普肯定會在所有50個州參加選舉。但并非所有來自第三黨的候選人都是如此。
Several such candidates have been facing the distraction of lawsuits that seek to stop them competing in some states.
幾位這樣的候選人一直面臨著訴訟的干擾，這些訴訟試圖阻止他們在某些州參選。
A Democrat-aligned group has challenged Robert F. Kennedy junior's right to be on the ballot in Pennsylvania, New York and Illinois, hoping to hobble the idiosyncratic independent candidate.
一個與民主黨結盟的團體挑戰了小羅伯特·肯尼迪在賓夕法尼亞州、紐約州和伊利諾伊州的參選權，希望阻礙這位特立獨行的獨立候選人。
Officials in Wisconsin dismissed an attempt by Democrats to remove Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, from the ballot in that swing state.
威斯康星州的官員駁回了民主黨將綠黨候選人吉爾·斯坦（Jill Stein）從該搖擺州的選票中剔除的企圖。
The logic of these legal moves is clear: for much of the campaign third-party candidates appeared to be siphoning support from the presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden.
這些法律舉措的邏輯很明顯：在競選的大部分時間里，第三方候選人似乎都在贏得民主黨推定候選人喬·拜登的支持率。
But the calculus is shifting—and news that Mr Kennedy may be about to end his campaign, and support Mr Trump, is only the most visible sign.
但這種算計正在發生變化——最明顯的跡象就是肯尼迪可能即將結束競選并支持特朗普的消息。
For Democrats, fear of a third-party "spoiler" looms large, particularly in the six or seven swing states that will decide the election.
對于民主黨人來說，對第三方“攪局者”的擔憂日益加深，尤其是在決定選舉結果的六七個搖擺州。
The last time Ms Stein was on the ballot in Wisconsin, in 2016, she won 31,072 votes—more than Mr Trump's 22,748-vote margin of victory.
斯坦女士上次參加威斯康星州的選舉是在2016年，當時她贏得了31072票，超過了特朗普22748票的勝選優勢。
In 2000 the Green candidate, Ralph Nader, won nearly 100,000 votes in Florida.
2000年，綠黨候選人拉爾夫·納德在佛羅里達州贏得了近10萬張選票。
After an agonising dispute over "hanging chads", George W. Bush was judged to have won the state by just 537 votes, and Democrats accused Mr Nader of handing him the presidency.
在一場關于“懸空票”的激烈爭論之后，喬治·沃克·布什被判定以537票的優勢贏得了該州，民主黨指責納德將總統職位拱手讓給了布什。
Third-party candidates contest this framing. They say they draw support from both parties or that their voters would stay at home if they were not on the ballot.
第三方候選人對這種說法提出異議。他們說，他們得到了兩黨的支持，或者說如果他們沒有參加選舉，他們的選民就會待在家里。
But litigation over ballot access shows that Democrats take the threat seriously. The assumption that third-party candidates hurt Democrats may no longer be correct, though.
但有關投票權的訴訟表明，民主黨人對這一威脅非常重視。不過，第三方候選人會傷害民主黨的假設可能不再正確。
Polling conducted by YouGov between late May and early July, while Mr Biden was the presumptive Democratic nominee, showed Mr Kennedy winning 3.8% of voters who said they supported Mr. Biden in 2020.
輿觀在5月底至7月初進行的民意調查顯示，在拜登擔任民主黨提名人期間，肯尼迪贏得了3.8%的選民，這些選民表示他們在2020年支持拜登。
Ms Stein was winning a further 1.5% and Cornel West, a left-wing independent candidate, another 0.9%.
斯坦女士贏得了另外1.5%的支持率，左翼獨立候選人康奈爾·韋斯特贏得了另外0.9%的支持率。
In total, around 7% of Mr Biden's 2020 voters told YouGov that they planned to opt for a third-party candidate this year.
總體而言，拜登2020年選民中約有7%的人告訴輿觀，他們計劃今年選擇第三方候選人。
But in YouGov's polling since Ms Harris became the Democratic nominee, that number has fallen by more than half.
但在哈里斯成為民主黨提名人之后，輿觀的民意調查中，這一數字下降了一半以上。
Mr Kennedy now wins a larger share of 2020 Trump voters than Biden voters.
肯尼迪在2020年特朗普選民中的支持率高于拜登選民。
This shift is borne out by findings from other polling firms, which ask respondents to choose between multiple candidates as well as between the two main ones.
其他民意調查公司的調查結果也證實了這一轉變，這些調查要求受訪者在多位候選人以及兩位主要候選人之間做出選擇。
In polls before Mr Biden's withdrawal, Mr Trump had a 1.3 percentage-point advantage on average in questions that asked about multiple candidates compared with head-to-head polling.
在拜登退出之前的民意調查中，與面對面民意調查相比，特朗普在詢問多位候選人的問題上平均領先1.3個百分點。
With Ms Harris as the Democratic nominee, the effect is reversed: her margin is 0.9 points greater when third-party candidates are included.
隨著哈里斯成為民主黨候選人，效果正好相反：當包括第三方候選人時，她的領先優勢要大0.9個百分點。
Historically, polls have tended to overstate the strength of third parties. It may be that respondents use them to signal dissatisfaction with their own party.
從歷史上看，民意調查往往會夸大第三方的實力。受訪者可能會利用它們來表達對自己政黨的不滿。
That could help explain why many voters have come back to the Democrats since Ms Harris became the candidate.
這可能有助于解釋為什么自哈里斯成為候選人以來，許多選民又回到了民主黨。
Third-party candidates will not win a big share of the vote in November, with or without Mr Kennedy on the ballot.
無論肯尼迪是否在選票上，第三方候選人都不會在11月贏得大量選票。
True, it takes only a few thousand votes to swing a tight election. But the chances of such minnows handing the White House to Mr Trump have fallen sharply.
沒錯，只需要幾千張選票就能扭轉一場勢均力敵的選舉。但這些小人物不太可能將白宮交給特朗普。
