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David Johnson fears his neighbour is a socialist. As a retiree he volunteers with his local Republican Party in Johnston County, a patch of North Carolina where pristine suburban streets yield to rambling country roads.
大衛(wèi)·約翰遜(David Johnson)擔(dān)心他的鄰居是社會(huì)主義者。退休后，他在約翰斯頓縣為當(dāng)?shù)毓埠忘h做志愿者，約翰斯頓縣是北卡羅來(lái)納州的一塊土地，這里的郊區(qū)街道整潔，鄉(xiāng)村道路蜿蜒曲折。
The neighbour in question has put up a Black Lives Matter sign and Mr Johnson says she has accused him of being a white supremacist, which he denies.
這位鄰居豎起了“黑人的命也是命”的標(biāo)語(yǔ)，約翰遜先生說(shuō)，鄰居指責(zé)他是白人至上主義者，但他否認(rèn)了這一點(diǎn)。
"She's from Delaware," he says. "Make of that what you will."
“她來(lái)自特拉華州，”他說(shuō)。“隨你怎么說(shuō)吧。”
North Carolina will start distributing absentee ballots on September 6th, and as early voting begins, Johnston County is an unlikely battleground.
北卡羅來(lái)納州將于9月6日開始分發(fā)缺席選票，隨著提前投票的開始，約翰斯頓縣不太可能成為一個(gè)戰(zhàn)場(chǎng)。
Republican candidates for president have won the last 11 contests here, often handily.
共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人在這里贏得了過(guò)去11場(chǎng)競(jìng)選，而且往往是輕而易舉。
Yet Democrats increasingly see this part of the state as contested territory.
然而，民主黨越來(lái)越多地將該州的這一部分視為有爭(zhēng)議的領(lǐng)土。
Population growth in exurban counties and the state's peculiar political demography mean that Democrats cannot afford to overlook small towns and the countryside, while Republicans can no longer take them for granted.
郊區(qū)縣的人口增長(zhǎng)和該州特殊的政治人口結(jié)構(gòu)意味著民主黨不能忽視小城鎮(zhèn)和鄉(xiāng)村，而共和黨也不能再將它們視為理所當(dāng)然。
North Carolina only recently joined the list of swing states rated by nonpartisan analysts as toss-ups in November's presidential vote.
北卡羅來(lái)納州最近才被無(wú)黨派分析師列為11月總統(tǒng)選舉中勝負(fù)難分的搖擺州。
(The others are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada).
（其他搖擺州是賓夕法尼亞州、密歇根州、威斯康星州、喬治亞州、亞利桑那州和內(nèi)華達(dá)州）。
Joe Biden's decision to step aside and Kamala Harris's ascension put the state in play.
喬·拜登決定下臺(tái)，卡瑪拉·哈里斯上臺(tái)，讓該州陷入了博弈之中。
Where Mr Biden once trailed Donald Trump by seven points, Ms Harris now appears to be roughly tied.
拜登曾落后唐納德·特朗普7個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而哈里斯現(xiàn)在似乎勢(shì)均力敵。
Yet North Carolina—an enticing prize with 16 electoral votes—has repeatedly teased and disappointed Democrats.
然而，擁有16張選舉人票的誘人獎(jiǎng)品北卡羅來(lái)納州卻屢屢讓民主黨人感到失望。
The party's nominees have lost the state in ten of the past 11 presidential elections.
民主黨候選人在過(guò)去11次總統(tǒng)選舉中，有10次在該州失利。
But North Carolina reliably elects Democrats to statewide offices.
但北卡羅來(lái)納州可靠地選舉民主黨人擔(dān)任全州公職。
The party has controlled the governor's mansion for 28 of the past 32 years, for example, and in 2020, Governor Roy Cooper attracted 150,000 more votes than Mr Biden.
例如，民主黨在過(guò)去32年中有28年控制著州長(zhǎng)官邸，2020年，州長(zhǎng)羅伊·庫(kù)珀（Roy Cooper）比拜登多獲得了15萬(wàn)張選票。
Mr Cooper's local roots and tailored brand of moderate politics probably explain that vote gap.
庫(kù)珀的本地根基和為選民量身定制的溫和政治風(fēng)格或許可以解釋這一選票差距。
His success and that of other state Democrats feeds the party's optimism despite the dismal record in presidential races.
盡管庫(kù)珀在總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選中的表現(xiàn)慘淡，但他和其他州民主黨人的成功仍為該黨帶來(lái)了樂(lè)觀情緒。
Demographic currents do seem to strongly favour the party's multi-racial and college-educated coalition.
人口趨勢(shì)似乎確實(shí)強(qiáng)烈支持該黨的多種族和受過(guò)大學(xué)教育的聯(lián)盟。
In 1990 North Carolina was 75% white. Three decades later the figure is 60%.
1990年，北卡羅來(lái)納州白人占75%。三十年后，這一數(shù)字為60%。
It is one of the most educated states in the south, and of the small number of swing states this year it has the highest share of college-educated residents.
它是南方受教育程度最高的州之一，在今年少數(shù)幾個(gè)搖擺州中，它擁有最高比例的受過(guò)大學(xué)教育的居民。
Still, "If demography is destiny, that destiny is arriving at a much slower pace than many people had hoped," says Asher Hildebrand, a professor of public policy at Duke University.
盡管如此，“如果人口結(jié)構(gòu)決定命運(yùn)，那么命運(yùn)的到來(lái)速度比許多人希望的要慢得多，”杜克大學(xué)公共政策教授阿舍爾·希爾德布蘭德（Asher Hildebrand）說(shuō)道。
One reason is the state's "multi-directional" political evolution, as Mr Hildebrand describes it.
正如希爾德布蘭德所描述的那樣，原因之一是該州“多向”的政治演變。
Contrast North Carolina with its southern neighbour Georgia, which unexpectedly veered left in 2020.
北卡羅來(lái)納州與其南部鄰州佐治亞州形成鮮明對(duì)比，后者在2020年意外轉(zhuǎn)向左翼。
African-American voters buoy the Democratic coalition in the South, and nearly a third of Georgians are black. This compares with only a fifth of North Carolinians.
非裔美國(guó)選民支持南部的民主黨聯(lián)盟，近三分之一的佐治亞州人是黑人。相比之下，只有五分之一的北卡羅來(lái)納州人是黑人。
And while nearly three-quarters of Georgia's population growth since 1990 has been in Atlanta, only 40% of North Carolina's has occurred in Charlotte, the state's largest city.
自1990年以來(lái)，佐治亞州近四分之三的人口增長(zhǎng)發(fā)生在亞特蘭大，但北卡羅來(lái)納州只有40%的人口增長(zhǎng)發(fā)生在該州最大的城市夏洛特。
The people moving to North Carolina are not just young, diverse urbanites, but also Republican-leaning retirees and military veterans.
搬到北卡羅來(lái)納州的人不僅是年輕、多元化的城市居民，還有傾向于共和黨的退休人員和退伍軍人。
The electorate's expansion, Mr Hildebrand sums up, "is all over the place, and that has the effect of muting the overall trend left".
希爾德布蘭德總結(jié)說(shuō)，選民的擴(kuò)張“無(wú)處不在，這抑制了整體左傾趨勢(shì)”。
Some of the fastest-growing counties are in exurban areas. They help Republicans answer Democrats' advantages in the cities and increasingly the suburbs.
一些增長(zhǎng)最快的縣位于郊區(qū)。它們幫助共和黨回應(yīng)民主黨在城市和越來(lái)越多的郊區(qū)的優(yōu)勢(shì)。
In JoCo, as locals call Johnston County, Republican presidential candidates easily carry the jurisdiction. But population growth has made JoCo relevant to both parties.
在當(dāng)?shù)厝朔Q之為約翰斯頓縣的JoCo，共和黨總統(tǒng)候選人很容易獲得管轄權(quán)。但人口增長(zhǎng)使約翰斯頓縣對(duì)兩黨都具有重要意義。
For Democrats, holding down their opponent's net margin in an expanding Republican stronghold is worth just as much as running up the score with their own base.
對(duì)于民主黨人來(lái)說(shuō)，在不斷擴(kuò)大的共和黨據(jù)點(diǎn)中壓制對(duì)手的凈利潤(rùn)與在自己的基地中提高得分一樣重要。
Sharon Castleberry, the Democratic Party chair of Johnston County, is the local architect of this approach.
約翰斯頓縣民主黨主席Sharon Castleberry是這種方法的當(dāng)?shù)卦O(shè)計(jì)者。
A fifth-generation Johnstonian, she grew up helping out on her family's tobacco farm. These days she pores over voter-registration data.
作為第五代約翰斯頓人，她從小就在家族的煙草農(nóng)場(chǎng)幫忙。如今，她正在仔細(xì)研究選民登記數(shù)據(jù)。
She thinks Democrats are holding their own since Mr Biden yielded to Ms Harris.
她認(rèn)為，自從拜登讓位給哈里斯以來(lái)，民主黨一直保持著自己的優(yōu)勢(shì)。
In the month after that pivot point, "we were pretty even with Republicans in terms of new registrations," she notes.
在那個(gè)轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)之后的一個(gè)月里，她指出，“我們?cè)谛碌怯浄矫媾c共和黨相當(dāng)”。
If Republicans and Democrats agree on one thing, it is that Democrats cannot win North Carolina in urban and suburban areas alone.
如果共和黨和民主黨在一件事上達(dá)成了一致，那就是民主黨無(wú)法單獨(dú)在城市和郊區(qū)贏得北卡羅來(lái)納州。
Rather, "you have to go west of 77 and east of 95 to win," says Matt Mercer of the North Carolina Republican Party, referring to two highways that bookend Charlotte and Raleigh, the prosperous cities in the state's centre.
相反，“你必須越過(guò)77號(hào)公路以西和95號(hào)公路以東才能獲勝”，北卡羅來(lái)納州共和黨的馬特·默瑟(Matt Mercer)說(shuō)道，他指的是兩條連接該州中心繁華城市夏洛特和羅利的高速公路。
Under Anderson Clayton, a rural North Carolinian, the state's Democratic Party has organised in areas beyond cities and suburbs.
在北卡羅來(lái)納州農(nóng)村人安德森·克萊頓(Anderson Clayton)的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，該州民主黨在城市和郊區(qū)以外的地區(qū)組織起來(lái)。
About half of the Harris campaign's field offices are in exurban and rural regions.
哈里斯競(jìng)選團(tuán)隊(duì)大約一半的實(shí)地辦事處位于郊區(qū)和農(nóng)村地區(qū)。
"They're welcome to go into all of North Carolina," says Mr Mercer, "which they seem to have an aversion to."
“他們被歡迎進(jìn)入整個(gè)北卡羅來(lái)納州，”默瑟先生說(shuō)，“但他們似乎對(duì)此很反感。”
He is adamant that all this effort by his opponents will merely lead to more Democratic disillusionment come November.
他堅(jiān)稱，對(duì)手的所有這些努力只會(huì)導(dǎo)致民主黨在十一月更加失望。
