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There are no "quick fixes" in election campaigns. Kamala Harris's entry into the presidential election puts this conventional wisdom to the test.
傳統(tǒng)觀點(diǎn)認(rèn)為競選活動中沒有“速戰(zhàn)速決”的方法。卡瑪拉·哈里斯參加總統(tǒng)大選，挑戰(zhàn)了這一觀點(diǎn)的權(quán)威。
In two weeks as the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, the vice-president has broken fundraising records and enthused the Democratic base.
作為民主黨的假定候選人，這位副總統(tǒng)在兩周內(nèi)打破了籌款記錄，并激發(fā)了民主黨的熱情。
Her rise to the nomination has been smooth, although Republican attacks on her have barely begun.
盡管共和黨對她的抨擊才剛剛開始，但她的提名之路一直很順利。
Now, with enough polling to see the effect of her candidacy, The Economist has published an updated poll tracker.
現(xiàn)在，有了足夠的民意調(diào)查來檢驗她參選的影響，《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》發(fā)布了一份最新的民意調(diào)查追蹤報告。
It shows Ms Harris leading her opponent, Donald Trump, by 47% to 45% in the national popular vote. This is the first lead for the likely Democratic candidate since October 2023.
報告顯示，哈里斯在全國普選中以47%比45%領(lǐng)先對手唐納德·特朗普。這是自2023 年10月以來這位假定的民主黨候選人首次領(lǐng)先。
Along with the new candidate, our tracker has an updated methodology, designed to account for the rapidly shifting race.
隨著新候選人的出現(xiàn)，我們的追蹤器采用了更新的方法，旨在解釋迅速變化的競選情況。
Support for each candidate changes each day. Each poll is an imperfect estimate of the state of play.
每位候選人的支持率每天都在變化。每項民意調(diào)查都是對現(xiàn)狀的不完美估計。
We use a Bayesian statistical model to simulate the most likely "true" support for a candidate on each day, taking into account differences in methodology and the partisan tilt of individual polling firms.
我們使用貝葉斯統(tǒng)計模型來模擬每天對候選人最有可能的“實際”支持，同時考慮到方法論的差異和各個民調(diào)公司的黨派傾向。
To reflect election-day dynamics and the importance of turnout in American elections, our tracker puts greater weight on head-to-head polls (which exclude third-party candidates) and those that survey "likely voters" (rather than all registered voters or all adults).
為了反映選舉日的動態(tài)和投票率在美國選舉中的重要性，我們的追蹤器更加重視面對面的民意調(diào)查（不包括第三方候選人）和調(diào)查“可能的選民”（而不是所有登記選民或所有成年人）。
Our tracker relies on polls that included Mr Trump and Joe Biden up until July 21st, when Mr Biden withdrew from the election, then switches to polls that take in Ms Harris.
我們的追蹤器基于涵蓋特朗普和喬·拜登在內(nèi)的民意調(diào)查，直到7月21日拜登退選，然后切換到涵蓋哈里斯的民意調(diào)查。
It does not use "hypothetical" polling from before she became the candidate, which can be misleading.
它不使用她成為候選人之前的“假設(shè)”民意調(diào)查，這可能會產(chǎn)生誤導(dǎo)。
Instead, the tracker jumps on July 21st to reflect the new election campaign, but retains useful information about polls from before that date.
相反，追蹤器跳到7月21日以反映新的競選活動，但保留了該日期之前民意調(diào)查的有用信息。
Polls, after all, do not fall out of a coconut tree. With all these factors accounted for, we can see how Ms Harris has changed the race.
畢竟，民意調(diào)查不是從椰子樹上掉下來的。考慮到所有這些因素，我們可以看到哈里斯是如何改變競選的。
On her first day as a candidate, with the endorsement of Mr Biden, she was tied with Mr Trump on 46%. Since then she has increased her support by a point.
在她作為候選人的第一天，在拜登的支持下，她的支持率與特朗普持平，均為46%。從那時起，她的支持率增加了一個百分點(diǎn)。
This is a substantial improvement over the showing of Mr Biden, who trailed by around three points when he ended his presidential campaign.
這比拜登的表現(xiàn)有了很大的改善，拜登在結(jié)束總統(tǒng)競選時落后約三個百分點(diǎn)。
Winning the nationwide popular vote may not be enough to win the presidency, though—as Hillary Clinton and Al Gore, former Democratic candidates, can attest.
不過，贏得全國普選可能不足以贏得總統(tǒng)大選——前民主黨候選人希拉里·克林頓和阿爾·戈爾可以證明這一點(diǎn)。
To secure the 270 electoral-college votes needed to win, Ms Harris must win battleground states, such as Pennsylvania and Michigan, which have leaned to the right of the country in recent elections.
為了獲得勝選所需的270張選舉人團(tuán)投票，哈里斯必須贏得賓夕法尼亞州和密歇根州等戰(zhàn)場州，這兩個州在最近的選舉中傾向于右翼。
In 2020, Mr Biden won the popular vote by 4.5 percentage points nationwide, while eking out a win in Wisconsin—which gave him his 270th electoral vote—by only 0.6 percentage points.
2020年，拜登在全國普選中以4.5個百分點(diǎn)的優(yōu)勢獲勝，而在威斯康星州——這讓他獲得了第270張選舉人票——僅以0.6個百分點(diǎn)的優(yōu)勢險勝。
If Ms Harris faced the same swing-state disadvantage compared with the national vote, a three-point lead nationwide would win her only 247 electoral votes, and would return Mr Trump to the White House.
如果哈里斯在搖擺州面臨的劣勢與全國選票相同，那么在全國范圍內(nèi)領(lǐng)先3個百分點(diǎn)將使她僅贏得247張選舉人票，并讓特朗普重返白宮。
Polls also come with plenty of uncertainty, especially with three months to go before the election.
民調(diào)也存在很多不確定性，尤其是在距離大選還有三個月的情況下。
Most political scientists agree that voters pay little attention to election campaigns until the final stages of the race.
大多數(shù)政治學(xué)家都認(rèn)為，選民在競選的最后階段之前很少關(guān)注競選活動。
Until then, polling will tend to respond to the ebbs and flows of media coverage, before converging on the eventual result as the election approaches.
在此之前，民調(diào)將隨媒體報道的起伏而變化，然后在大選臨近時確定最終結(jié)果。
Our presidential-election model, which will be updated shortly to reflect Ms Harris's candidacy, accounts for this variation to forecast the final result.
我們的總統(tǒng)選舉模型將考慮這種變化來預(yù)測最終結(jié)果，該模型將很快更新以反映哈里斯的候選資格。
Our poll tracker is simply our best guess of where Americans stand today. And it shows that Mr Biden's decision to drop out of the contest has put the election on a knife-edge.
我們的民調(diào)追蹤器只是我們對美國人今天立場的最佳猜測。它顯示拜登退選的決定使選舉處于危險邊緣。
