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卡瑪拉·哈里斯的多重面孔(下)

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She will continue to evangelise about Mr Biden's Inflation Reduction Act, which provides hundreds of billions of dollars to subsidise clean-energy projects,

她將繼續宣傳拜登的《通脹削減法案》,該法案提供數千億美元補貼清潔能源項目,

as well as the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, and the student-debt forgiveness achieved through the president's power of the pen (some $144 billion).

以及《兩黨基礎設施法》和通過總統權力實現的學生債務減免(約1440億美元)。

The underlying idea of "Bidenomics"—industrial policy, scepticism of free-trade deals, large social transfers and aggressive antitrust and environmental regulation—would be expected to stay intact in a Harris administration.

“拜登經濟學”的基本思想——產業政策、對自由貿易協定的懷疑、大規模的社會轉移以及激進的反壟斷和環境監管——預計將在哈里斯政府中保持不變。

Whether there is a distinctive Harris doctrine of foreign policy is even more enigmatic.

哈里斯是否有獨特的外交政策原則更是難解之謎。

Her advocates tout her travels abroad while vice-president, including one meeting with Xi Jinping, China's leader, and six with Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president.

她的支持者吹捧她在擔任副總統期間出國訪問,包括一次與中國領導人的會面,六次與烏克蘭總統澤連斯基的會面。

Her speech to the Munich Security Conference in February 2024 was textbook Bidenism: defending a rules-based international order, criticising American isolationists and staunchly embracing Ukraine "for as long as it takes".

她在2024年2月慕尼黑安全會議上的講話是典型的拜登主義:捍衛基于規則的國際秩序,批評美國孤立主義者,并“盡可能長時間”堅定支持烏克蘭。

Her schedule and call logs show conversation with many heads of state, especially those of Mexico, Japan and the Philippines.

她的日程安排和通話記錄顯示她與許多國家元首進行了交談,尤其是墨西哥、日本和菲律賓的元首。

The only area where some see a difference between Mr Biden and Ms Harris is over Israel.

一些人認為拜登和哈里斯之間唯一的分歧是在以色列問題上。

"People think Harris might be moderately better than Biden, but we're still waiting to see signals that she's ready to turn the page on…our weapons' backing for Netanyahu's war,"

“人們認為哈里斯可能比拜登略勝一籌,但我們仍在翹首以待她翻開新篇章的信號……我們的武器支持內塔尼亞胡的戰爭,”

says Waleed Shahid, a Democratic strategist who advises the Uncommitted campaign, which urged protest votes over Gaza against Mr Biden in primaries.

民主黨戰略家Waleed Shahid說,他為不表態競選活動提供建議,該活動呼吁在初選中就加沙問題對拜登投抗議票。

Republicans believe they have plenty of powerful lines of attack against Ms Harris.

共和黨人認為他們有很多強有力的攻擊路線來攻擊哈里斯。

They have christened her the "border tsar" and are pinning the blame on her for high levels of illegal immigration since Mr Biden took office.

他們稱她為“邊境沙皇”,并將拜登上任以來的非法移民高水平歸咎于她。

On July 23rd Mr Trump hosted a call with reporters to level exactly this charge.

7月23日,特朗普針對這一指控與記者舉行了電話會議。

"If she becomes president, Kamala Harris will make the invasion exponentially worse, just like she did with San Francisco," Mr Trump said. "She's far more radical than he is. She wants open borders."

“如果卡瑪拉·哈里斯當選總統,她將使入侵事件成倍惡化,就像她對舊金山所做的那樣,”特朗普說?!八人みM得多。她想要開放邊境。”

Her rejoinder, that she was never border tsar but merely tasked with tackling the root causes of migration, may be too technical to be noticed.

哈里斯反駁稱自己從來都不是邊境沙皇,只是負責解決移民的癥結,這可能太過技術性而無法被注意到。

Further down the ballot, Republicans feel they have more ammunition against the new candidate, not less.

越是位于選票下方的選舉,共和黨人覺得他們對新候選人的攻擊就越多。

"If anything, she's worse on these issues than Biden," says Dave McCormick, the Republican nominee for a crucial Senate race in Pennsylvania, citing the border, the economy, crime and the environment.

“如果說有什么不同的話,那就是她在這些問題上比拜登更糟糕,”賓夕法尼亞州共和黨參議員候選人戴夫·麥考密克說,他提到了邊境、經濟、犯罪和環境問題。

"We were looking at a bunch of clips of her on fossil fuels and she is 100% unequivocally opposed to fracking," he adds.

“我們看了很多她關于化石燃料的言論剪輯,她明確反對水力壓裂法,”他補充道。

Her comments will be a liability in his state, a vital one on the road to the White House.

她的言論將成為賓夕法尼亞州的負擔,也是通往白宮之路的關鍵。

For Democrats, though, the most important question is less what does Ms Harris stand for—that can be filled out later—but whether or not she can defeat Mr Trump.

然而,對于民主黨人來說,最重要的問題不是哈里斯代表什么(這可以稍后再回答),而是她能否擊敗特朗普。

Here, too, there is ample uncertainty (though it beats the near-certainty of Mr Biden's impending loss). Mr Biden dropped out because of that near-certainty.

這也存在很大的不確定性(盡管它超過了拜登即將失敗的幾乎確定性)。拜登因為這種近乎確定性而退出了選舉。

As the president told Americans in an Oval Office address on July 24th, he felt his record and leadership merited a second term, "but nothing, nothing can come in the way of saving our democracy. That includes personal ambition."

正如總統在7月24日的橢圓形辦公室演講中告訴美國人的那樣,他認為自己的表現和領導能力值得連任第二任期,“但沒有什么可以阻擋我們拯救民主。個人野心也不能。”

Polls released since the switch look more favourable to Ms Harris than before.

自換人以來發布的民調顯示,哈里斯比以前更有利。

Our poll, conducted with YouGov from July 21st through 23rd, found her three points behind Mr Trump in the national popular vote—roughly where Mr Biden was, though better than her previous hypothetical matchup.

我們與輿觀于7月21日至23日進行的民調發現,她在全國普選中落后特朗普三個百分點,大致與拜登相同,但比她之前假設的對手要好。

Her net favourability is minus nine percentage points, up from minus 15 points the week before, which is roughly tied with Mr Trump's margin of minus ten (and well ahead of Mr Biden's at minus 19).

她的凈支持率為負9個百分點,高于前一周的負15個百分點,與特朗普的負10個百分點大致持平(遠高于拜登的負19個百分點)。

Democrats have also closed the enthusiasm gap with Republicans, which had become dire.

民主黨人也縮小了與共和黨人之間原本就很巨大的支持率差距。

Tony Fabrizio, Mr Trump's pollster, has pre-emptively warned of a "Harris honeymoon" which may mean that polls show "Harris is gaining on or even leading" Mr Trump. He thinks this will fade. Ms Harris's campaign disagrees.

特朗普的民意調查員托尼·法布里齊奧(Tony Fabrizio)先發制人警告稱,“哈里斯蜜月期”即將到來,這可能意味著民意調查顯示“哈里斯正在追趕甚至領先”特朗普。他認為這種情況會逐漸消退。哈里斯的競選團隊不同意這一觀點。

"About 7% of voters remain undecided in this race, and these voters are disproportionately Black, Latino, and under 30…and two times more likely to be Democrats than Republicans," wrote Jen O'Malley Dillon, Ms Harris's campaign chair, in a polling memo.

“在這場競選中,大約7%的選民仍未做出決定,這些選民中黑人、拉丁裔和30歲以下的選民比例過高……而且民主黨人的可能性是共和黨人的兩倍,”哈里斯的競選經理詹·奧馬利·狄龍(Jen O'Malley Dillon)在一份民意調查備忘錄中寫道。

American voters do not decide based on past consistency, policy acumen and considered comparison of platforms—much as this newspaper might wish they did.

美國選民不會根據過去的一致性、政策敏銳性和對政綱的深思熟慮的比較來做出決定——盡管本報可能希望他們這樣做。

Were they to do so, Ms Harris would be an improbable Democratic nominee to emerge from a properly contested convention (and the Trump-Vance ticket would be hopeless).

如果他們這樣做,哈里斯將成為一個不太可能在經過充分競爭的大會上脫穎而出的民主黨候選人(而特朗普-萬斯組合將毫無希望)。

Democrats have met this turn of fortune not with sorrow but with jubilation.

民主黨人對這種命運的轉變沒有悲傷,而是歡欣鼓舞。

That is not because they feel that Ms Harris is the greatest candidate possible. She is the only candidate possible. And with her, they at least have a chance.

這并不是因為他們覺得哈里斯是最偉大的候選人。她是唯一可能的候選人。有了她,他們至少還有機會。

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tout [taut]

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v. 招來顧客,死乞白賴地勸誘,刺探 ... 情報

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border ['bɔ:də]

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n. 邊界,邊境,邊緣
vt. 與 ... 接

 
switch [switʃ]

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n. 開關,轉換,鞭子
v. 轉換,改變,交換

 
poll [pəul]

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n. 投票,民意測驗,民意,票數
v. 做民意

 
previous ['pri:vjəs]

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adj. 在 ... 之前,先,前,以前的

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democratic [.demə'krætik]

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adj. 民主的,大眾的,平等的

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uncertainty [ʌn'sə:tnti]

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n. 不確定,不可靠,半信半疑 (學術)不可信度; 偏差

 
consistency [kən'sistənsi]

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n. 堅持,一致性,強度,硬度,濃稠度

 
comparison [kəm'pærisn]

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n. 比較

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acumen [ə'kju:men]

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n. 銳敏,聰明

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