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Mr Biden's objective function is maximising his own chance of remaining there. Before the debate these two goals seemed compatible.
拜登的目標是最大限度地提高自己留任的概率。在辯論之前，這兩個目標似乎是一致的。
But now they are misaligned. And Democrats find themselves with a collective-action problem.
但現在它們不一致了。民主黨人發現自己面臨集體行為問題。
If an individual comes out for Mr Biden to stand aside, but others do not, they will have harmed their party's nominee and their own career, to MrTrump's benefit.
如果一個人站出來要求拜登退選，而其他人卻不這樣做，那么他們將傷害該黨的候選人，斷送自己的職業生涯，反而讓特朗普漁翁得利。
This bind explains the indecision of the past weeks: the agonising private meetings that yield little consensus, the public statements of either feigned confidence or diplomatic concerns.
這種困境解釋了過去幾周的猶豫不決：令人焦慮的私人會議幾乎沒有達成共識，公開聲明要么假裝信任，要么表達外交關切。
If the president is not for turning, then what is there to be done? When confronted with irrationality from the top, rational actors in the party ranks can be forced to submit.
如果總統不愿意轉變，那該怎么辦？當面對非理性的高層時，黨內理性的參與者可能會被迫屈服。
That has been the story of the Republican Party under Mr Trump. And so it is fitting that Mr Biden has recently begun to ape his rival in other ways too.
這就是特朗普領導下的共和黨的故事。因此，拜登最近也開始以其他方式模仿他的對手，這是很恰當的。
He has announced his disbelief in polls that show him losing; taken to bragging about the size of his crowds and his golf game; turned to family members for advice, including his son Hunter, who was recently convicted of several felonies;
他宣布不相信顯示他失敗的民意調查；開始吹噓他的觀眾規模和他的高爾夫球技；他向家人尋求建議，包括他的兒子亨特，亨特最近被判犯有幾項重罪；
claimed that he alone can beat his rival; and called in to his favourite morning television programme to denounce the party elites conspiring against him.
他聲稱只有他才能打敗他的對手；他還在最喜歡的早間電視節目中譴責黨內精英密謀反對他。
He calculates that the party will be forced to get over itself after he secures the nomination, perhaps as soon as August 7th by virtual vote (nearly two weeks ahead of the convention).
他估計，在他獲得提名后，民主黨將被迫克服自我，也許最早在8月7日通過虛擬投票（比大會提前近兩周）。
This is a complete reversal of what Mr Biden's candidacy was supposed to be about: saving the soul of the nation from a self-aggrandising demagogue who puts himself before all others.
這完全顛覆了拜登的候選資格：從一個自吹自擂、把自己置于他人之上的煽動者手中拯救國家的靈魂。
Mr Biden is the consummate Washington creature, first elected to the Senate before his 30th birthday more than 50 years ago.
拜登是華盛頓的代表性人物，50多年前，在他30歲生日之前首次當選參議員。
He has been part of the elite longer than most Americans have been alive. He owes his presidency to the same donors and columnists he is now denouncing.
他成為精英階層的時間比大多數美國人的壽命還要長。他把自己的總統職位歸功于他現在譴責的那些捐助者和專欄作家。
In 2020 they united around his flagging presidential candidacy to keep Bernie Sanders, a socialist-curious senator, from becoming the nominee.
2020年，他們團結在日漸式微的總統候選人競選周圍，阻止對社會主義感興趣的參議員伯尼·桑德斯成為提名人。
Mr Biden could force his party to stay with him the way marriages in places without no-fault divorce laws persist. But it will be a loveless arrangement.
拜登可以迫使民主黨繼續支持他，就像在沒有無過錯離婚法的地方婚姻仍然生效一樣。但這將是一個沒有愛的安排。
Ignoring problems does not make them go away. Voters do not accept Mr Biden's claim that his debate performance was simply one bad night.
忽視問題并不能讓問題消失。選民不接受拜登的說法：他的辯論表現只是一個糟糕的夜晚。
They have since swung noticeably towards Mr Trump. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, a respected election handicapper, announced that it was downgrading the president's chances in three swing states, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada, all of which now lean Republican.
自那以后，他們明顯轉向支持特朗普。《庫克政治報告》與受人尊敬的選舉預測專家艾米·沃爾特（Amy Walter）一起宣布，拜登糟糕的辯論降低了他在亞利桑那州、佐治亞州和內華達州三個搖擺州的獲勝幾率，這三個州現在都傾向于共和黨。
And marginal headline polling shifts mask a bigger change. Our poll with YouGovfinds that Democrats are nearly evenly split: 42% say he should stand aside, compared with 45% who say he should stay.
而民意調查的微小變化掩蓋了更大的變化。我們與YouGov進行的民意調查發現，民主黨人幾乎平分秋色：42%的人認為他應該退出，而45%的人認為他應該留下。
The American press feels lied to and is aggressively investigating the president's health.
美國媒體感覺自己被騙了，正在積極調查總統的健康狀況。
Because ageing cannot be overcome by grit, Mr Biden could stumble again in the next four months, perhaps when it is too late to replace him on printed ballots.
由于堅韌不拔無法克服衰老，拜登可能會在未來四個月內再次失利，也許到時候在印刷選票上取代他已經太遲了。
Asked last week how he would feel if he lost to Mr Trump, Mr Biden answered: "As long as I gave it my all, and I did the—good as job as I know I can do—that's what this is about."
上周，當被問及如果輸給特朗普會有什么感受時，拜登回答說：“只要我全力以赴，盡我所能做好工作，那就夠了。”
