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Germany's three-body problem
德國的三體問題
The coalition parties are rowing about everything. The mood is miserable and is getting worse.
聯合政府在所有事情上都爭吵不休。心情很痛苦，而且越來越糟。
Visitors to Germany's capital may mistake the Berliner Schnauze (literally "snout"), an earthy form of local wit, for grumpiness. But there is no misreading the mood in Germany today.
來到德國首都的游客可能會將Berliner Schnauze（字面意思是“鼻子”）誤認為是脾氣暴躁的人，Berliner Schnauze是當地風趣的一種樸實形式。但今天德國的情緒并沒有被誤讀。
A deep malaise has settled on the country. Four-fifths of Germans tell pollsters they are unhappy with their rulers.
這個國家已經陷入了深深的不安之中。五分之四的德國人告訴民意調查者他們對統治者不滿意。
And a series of upcoming political and electoral trials could test the government to breaking-point.
一系列即將到來的政治和選舉審判可能會考驗政府的極限。
In December 2021, after an election delivered a fragmented parliament, the Social Democrats (SPD) Greens and the pro-business Free Democrats (FDP) yoked themselves together in Germany's first three-party coalition for more than 60 years.
2021 年 12 月，選舉產生了分裂的議會，社會民主黨(SPD)，綠黨和親商的自由民主黨(FDP)聯合組成了德國60多年來的第一個三黨聯盟。
After 16 stable but uninspired years under Angela Merkel, the parties in the Ampel coalition, so named because their colours mimic a traffic light, seemed to promise a throupling that would bring excitement and new ideas.
在安格拉·默克爾領導的16年里，德國社會穩定但缺乏創新，之后，紅綠燈聯盟（聯盟因其顏色像交通燈而得名）中的各黨派似乎承諾將帶來興奮和新想法。
Climate change would make awesome demands of Germany's industrial economy, and the country's creaking bureaucracy needed yanking into the 21st century.
氣候變化將對德國的工業經濟提出巨大的要求，而該國過時的官僚機構需要與時俱進。
The three parties might not agree on every policy, but shared a commitment to modernising the country.
三黨可能不會在每項政策上達成一致，但都致力于實現國家現代化。
What went wrong? Of the failure's many fathers, three stand out. The first was Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
哪里出了問題？在眾多失敗之中，有三位脫穎而出。一是俄羅斯2022年2月入侵烏克蘭。
Not only did Vladimir Putin's war overturn the assumptions of some of Germany's foreign-policy elites, it disrupted the young coalition's animating mission.
弗拉基米爾·普京發動戰爭，不僅推翻了德國一些外交政策掌權人物的假設，也擾亂了年輕聯盟雄心勃勃的使命。
Olaf Scholz, the SPD chancellor, responded by announcing big changes in energy and security policy.
作為回應，社會民主黨總理奧拉夫·朔爾茨宣布大力變革能源和安全政策。
Germany weaned itself off Russian gas, began transforming he clapped-out Bundeswehr and became one of Ukraine's sturdiest allies.
德國擺脫了對俄羅斯天然氣的依賴，開始改造德國聯邦國防軍，并成為烏克蘭堅定的盟友。
But the energy shock hammered German industry which had long grumbled about high prices, and unsettled inflation-allergic voters.
但能源沖擊重創了長期抱怨高物價的德國工業，也讓對通貨膨脹敏感的選民感到不安。
The second event was a dispute over an ill-prepared law that would have in effect banned new fossil-fuel boilers from homes in place of greener heat pumps.
第二件事是關于一項準備不足的法律的爭議，該法律實際上禁止家庭使用新的化石燃料鍋爐代替更環保的熱泵。
The coalition split, and took a pasting in the tabloids. By the time it retreated, the political damage was done.
聯盟分裂了，并在小報上大肆報道。撤回報道時，政治損失已經造成。
The debacle tarnished he coalition's signature policy of climate tansformation and squashed trust in its competence; notably that of Robert Habeck, the Green vice-chancellor.
這次失敗玷污了聯盟標志性的氣候轉型政策，并削弱了對其能力的信任，尤其是綠黨副總理羅伯特·哈貝克。
The third and most bruising shock was a ruling by Germany's constitutional court last November that stymied the coalition's plans to divert 60 billion euros ($65 billion) of unused covid-19 money to fund its climate plans.
第三個也是最嚴重的沖擊是德國憲法法院去年11月的一項裁決，該裁決阻礙了聯盟將600億歐元（650億美元）未使用的抗疫貸款轉移到氣候與轉型基金的計劃。
The government thought this would allow it to pursue its targets without violating the constitutional "debt brake", which limits structural deficits to 0.35% of GDP.
政府認為這將能夠在不違反憲法“債務制動”的前提下實現氣候目標，“債務制動”這一機制將德國的結構性預算赤字限制在相當于國內生產總值（GDP）的0.35%。
Instead, it was forced to make cuts to his year's budget worth 17 billion euros; a marked retrenchment in a country already flirting with recession.
相反，政府被迫削減了當年價值170億歐元的預算；在一個已經陷入衰退的國家進行明顯的緊縮。
Worse, it exposed the coalition's dirty secret: that its governing machinery had been oiled less with a sense of common purpose and more with accounting tricks.
更糟糕的是，該裁決暴露了聯盟的骯臟秘密：其治理機制較少受到共同目標感的影響，更多地受到會計運算的影響。
This is the framework within which negotiations over the 2025 budget which began this month, will take place.
這是本月開始的2025預算談判的框架。
Budget fights are never easy, but this will be a humdinger. The government must hind further cuts, of around 25 billion euros, or 0.6% of GDP.
預算之爭從來都不是一件容易的事，但這將是一個巨大的挑戰。政府必須阻止進一步的削減，約250億歐元，即GDP的0.6%。
