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A flat economy, the debt brake, higher interest costs and the FDP's resistance to tax rises leave the parties squabbling over a shrinking pie;
經濟疲軟、債務制動、更高的利息成本以及自民黨對增稅的抵制，讓各方為不斷縮小的蛋糕而爭吵；
ring-fenced areas like defence mean more acute cuts elsewhere. "I didn't come into politics for this," sighs one minister.
國防等圍欄領域意味著其他地方的削減幅度更大。“我進入政壇不是為了這個，”一位部長嘆道。
From his perch as finance minister Christian Lindner, the FDP's leader, will play hardball with the spending plans of other departments.
財政部長、自民黨領導人克里斯蒂安·林德納將對其他部門的支出計劃采取強硬態度。
Its rivals increasingly see the FDP as an internal opposition hampering their attempts to govern.
其競爭對手越來越將自民黨視為阻礙其執政舉措的內部反對派。
In the past week alone, intra-coalition spats over spending on security development aid and, most seriously, pensions have spilled into the open.
僅在過去一周，聯盟內部就安全發展援助支出發生爭執，最嚴重的是，養老金問題已經公開化。
Some observers think the budget rows could even precipitate a government collapse before the next federal election, due in autumn 2025.
一些評論人士認為，預算糾紛甚至可能導致政府在2025年秋季舉行的下一次聯邦選舉之前垮臺。
That seems unlikely. But several political tests will further aggravate the differences between the parties.
這似乎不太可能。但幾次政治考驗將進一步加劇兩黨之間的分歧。
The first, on June 9th, is the European Parliament election (a national vote disguised as a European one).
一是6月9日的歐洲議會選舉（偽裝成歐洲議會的全國投票）。
The Ampel parties will struggle; the Greens' strong showing in 2019 will leave their losses looking especially dire.
紅綠燈聯盟將陷入困境；綠黨在2019年的強勁表現將使他們的損失看起來尤其慘重。
A second challenge comes in September, with elections in three of Germany's eastern states.
第二個挑戰將在九月到來，屆時德國東部三個州將舉行選舉。
Fringe outfits, including BSW, a new pro-Russian party set up by a hard-left mp who hopes also to snaffle support from the hard right, will do well, priming Germany for another bout of angst over the lure of extremism in the once-communist east.
新的親俄政黨BSW等邊緣團體將會表現良好，讓德國對曾經的共產主義東方的極端主義的誘惑再次感到焦慮。BSW由一位極左翼議員成立，他希望也能獲得極右翼的支持。
The Ampel parties, by contrast, are set for a drubbing. In Saxony and Thuringia all three could fall below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
相比之下，紅綠燈黨派注定要慘敗。在薩克森州和圖林根州，三黨都可能低于進入議會所需的5%門檻。
The coalition parties are also struggling in national polls.
聯合黨在全國民意調查中也陷入困境。
All three lag behind both the centre-right Christian Democrats and the far right Alternative for Germany (though the AFD has lately been hurt by a string of scandals).
三黨都落后于中右翼的基督教民主黨和極右翼的德國選擇黨（盡管德國選擇黨最近因一系列丑聞而受到影響）。
Mr Scholz has dreadful personal ratings and a growing reputation for ineptitude; the Greens are beset by in-fighting; and Mr Lindner's fiscal stubbornness has seen the FDP's ratings hover at the 5% threshold below which it faces election into the wilderness.
朔爾茨的個人評價很糟糕，并且因無能而聲名狼藉；綠黨陷入內訌；林德納在財政上的頑固態度導致自民黨的支持率徘徊在5%的門檻上，低于該門檻將面臨選舉失敗的境地。
Ominously, some German voters are losing faith not only in the coalition, but in democratic politics itself.
不幸的是，一些德國選民不僅對聯盟失去了信心，而且對民主政治本身也失去了信心。
"Germans are often dissatisfied with their government, but I've never known the general mood to be this bad," says Rainer Faus, managing director of Pollytix, a political research outfit.
政治研究機構Pollytix的總經理雷納·福斯(Rainer Faus)表示：“德國人經常對政府感到不滿，但我從來沒有聽說過普遍情緒如此糟糕。”
His focus groups regularly descend into shouting matches, he says. "People are just so unhappy at everything."
他說，他的焦點小組經常爭吵。“人們對一切都很不滿意。”
A spate of recent assaults on politicians, including an SPD candidate in Saxony who was left hospitalised, has sparked a national round of hand-wringing.
最近發生的一系列針對政客的襲擊事件，包括薩克森州一名社民黨候選人住院治療，引發了全國范圍內的恐慌。
In a sign of alarm in the business world, an alliance of over 30 German firms recently issued a statement urging their employees to stand up for tolerance and diversity.
一個由30多家德國公司組成的聯盟最近發表了一份聲明，敦促其員工支持寬容和多元化，這引起了商界的警惕。
What might help? SPD insiders hope that Mr Scholz's steady-as-she-goes demeanour will win over nervous doubter when the next election begins to loom.
什么可能有幫助？社民黨內部人士希望，下一次選舉臨近時，朔爾茨先生穩健的舉止將贏得緊張的、持懷疑態度的選民的支持。
A cyclical upturn in the economy may lift spirits. Some think that the Euro 2024 foot ball tournament, which kicks off in Germany in mid-June, will boost national morale.
經濟的周期性好轉可能會提振士氣。一些人認為，2024年歐洲足球錦標賽將于6月中旬在德國拉開帷幕，這將提振國家士氣。
Yet these are hardly sure bets. Outside his circle it is hard to find observers who think Mr Scholz will win re-election.
然而，這些都不是確定的賭注。在他的圈子之外，很難找到認為朔爾茨將贏得連任的評論人士。
Germany's longer-term economic outlook remains grim. As for the football, caution is warranted: at the last Euros Germany limped out in the second round, leaving the country disappointed and angry.
長遠來看，德國的經濟前景依然嚴峻。至于足球，謹慎是有必要的：上屆歐洲杯德國隊在第二輪狼狽出局，讓整個國家感到失望和憤怒。
