評論
打印
Europe
歐洲版塊
The war in Ukraine
烏克蘭戰爭
When and how might the fighting end?
戰爭何時以何種方式結束?
Western allies are starting to split over the end day though neither side seems ready to stop fighting.
西方盟國關于戰爭何時結束出現分歧，盡管雙方似乎都沒有做好停止戰斗的準備。
The war in Ukraine, says its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, will be won on the battlefield but can end only through negotiations.
烏克蘭總統弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基表示，烏克蘭戰爭將在戰場上獲勝，但只有通過談判才能結束。
When to stop fighting, and on what terms?
何時停止戰斗，以什么條件停止戰斗？
The West says that is for Ukraine to decide.
西方表示，這要由烏克蘭來決定。
Yet three months into the war, Western countries are staking out positions on the endgame.
然而，戰爭已經持續了三個月，西方國家對戰爭的結局表明了自己的立場。
They are splitting into two broad camps, explains Ivan Krastev, of the Centre for Liberal Strategies, a think-tank in Sofia.
他們正在分裂成兩大陣營，索非亞智庫自由戰略中心的伊萬·克拉斯特夫解釋道。
One is the “peace party”, which wants a halt to the fighting and the start of negotiations as soon as possible.
一個是“和平黨”，他們希望盡快停止戰斗，開始談判。
The other is the “justice party”, which thinks Russia must be made to pay dearly for its aggression.
另一派是“正義黨”，他們認為俄羅斯必須為其侵略行為付出沉重代價。
The argument turns in the first instance on territory: let Russia hold on to the land it has conquered thus far; push it back to its starting line on February 24th; or try to shove it even farther back, to the international border, to recover territories it seized in 2014?
爭論首先在領土上展開：讓俄羅斯守住它目前為止占領的土地；還是把它推回2月24日的起跑線；再或者是試圖把它推得更遠，到國際邊界，收回它在2014年奪取的領土？
The debate revolves around much else besides, not least the costs, risks and rewards of prolonging the war; and the place of Russia in the European order.
這場辯論還圍繞著許多其他方面的問題，尤其是延長戰爭的成本、風險和回報；以及俄羅斯在歐洲秩序中的地位。
The peace camp is mobilising.
和平陣營正在動員。
Germany has called for a ceasefire; Italy is circulating a four-track plan for a political settlement; France speaks of a future peace deal without “humiliation” for Russia.
德國呼吁停火；意大利正在傳播一項政治解決的四軌計劃；法國談到未來的和平協議，不會讓俄羅斯“蒙羞”。
Ranged against them stand mainly Poland and the Baltic states, championed by Britain.
反對他們的主要是波蘭和由英國支持的波羅的海國家。
What of America?
美國態度如何？
Ukraine’s most important backer has yet to set out a clear objective, beyond strengthening Ukraine to give it a stronger bargaining hand.
烏克蘭最重要的支持者除了加強烏克蘭的實力，讓它在談判中占據更大的優勢之外，還沒有制定一個明確的目標。
America has spent nearly $14bn on the war so far, and Congress has just allocated a further $40bn.
到目前為止，美國已經在這場戰爭上花費了近140億美元，國會剛剛又撥款400億美元。
America has rallied military donations from more than 40 other countries.
美國已經召集了40多個其他國家的軍事捐款。
But this help is not unlimited.
但這種幫助并不是無限的。
It has delivered artillery, but not the longer-range rocket systems that Ukraine is asking for.
它提供了火炮，但沒有提供烏克蘭要求的遠程火箭系統。
Remarks by Lloyd Austin, America’s defence secretary, add to the ambiguity.
美國國防部長勞埃德·奧斯汀的講話更是模棱兩可。
After visiting Kyiv last month he embraced the justice party, saying the West should help Ukraine “win” and “weaken” Russia.
在上個月訪問基輔后，他支持正義黨，稱西方應該幫助烏克蘭“贏”和“削弱”俄羅斯。
Three weeks later he seemed to tack to the peace camp, calling for an “immediate ceasefire” following a phone call with his Russian counterpart, Sergei Shoigu.
三周后，他似乎轉向了和平陣營，在與俄羅斯總統謝爾蓋·紹伊古通了電話后，呼吁“立即停火”。
The Pentagon insists there is no change of policy.
五角大樓堅稱沒有改變政策。
Another blow to the justice party was an editorial in the New York Times arguing that the defeat of Russia was unrealistic and dangerous.
正義黨受到的另一個打擊是《紐約時報》的一篇社論稱，擊敗俄羅斯是不切實際的，也是危險的。
Then Henry Kissinger, a former secretary of state, said negotiations should start within two months to avoid “upheavals and tensions that will not be easily overcome”.
當時的美國前國務卿亨利·基辛格表示，談判應在兩個月內啟動，以避免“難以克服的動蕩和緊張局勢”。
