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烏克蘭的戰爭到底什么時候能結束?(下)

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There would ideally be a return to the line of February 24th; “pursuing the war beyond that point would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself,” he declared at the World Economic Forum, a talkfest in Davos.

理想的情況是回到2月24日;他在達沃斯舉行的世界經濟論壇上宣稱,“在這一分水嶺之外繼續進行戰爭將不是烏克蘭的自由,而是針對俄羅斯本身的新戰爭?!?/p>

Russia, he said, had an important role to play in Europe’s balance of power; it should not be pushed into a “permanent alliance” with China.

他說,俄羅斯在歐洲的力量平衡中扮演著重要的角色;它不應該被推入與中國的“永久聯盟”。

For now, such cracks in the West are contained by the mantra that the future is for Ukrainians to decide.

就目前而言,西方的這種裂痕被“未來由烏克蘭人來決定”的信條所遏制。

Yet Ukraine’s choices are in turn shaped by what the West will provide.

然而,烏克蘭的選擇又取決于西方將提供什么。

“Europe, the world at large, should be united. We are as strong as you are united,” Mr Zelensky told a meeting at Davos.

歐洲,乃至全世界,都應該團結一致。我們和你們一樣強大,“澤倫斯基在達沃斯的一次會議上表示。

He said that “Ukraine will be fighting until it gains all its territory back.”

他說:“烏克蘭將繼續戰斗,直到奪回所有領土。

But he also seemed to leave himself space for compromise.

但他似乎也給自己留下了妥協的空間。

Talks with Russia, he said, could begin once it withdraws to the line of February 24th.

他說,一旦俄羅斯退回到2月24日的界線,與俄羅斯的談判就可以開始。

America, Europe and Ukraine have to keep adjusting their positions according to what each thinks the other will accept.

美國、歐洲和烏克蘭必須根據各自認為對方會接受的情況來調整各自的立場。

“The Ukrainians are negotiating with their Western partners as much as, and probably more than, they’re negotiating with the Russians,” says Olga Oliker of the International Crisis Group, a think-tank.

智囊團國際危機組織的奧爾加·奧利克表示:“烏克蘭人與西方伙伴的談判和與俄羅斯人的談判一樣多,甚至可能更多?!?/p>

The fuzziness also reflects the uncertainties of war.

這種模糊性也反映了戰爭的不確定性。

Is Ukraine winning, because it saved Kyiv and pushed Russia back from Kharkiv; or is it losing, because Russia has taken Mariupol and may soon encircle Severodonetsk?

烏克蘭贏了?因為它拯救了基輔,把俄羅斯從哈爾科夫趕走了;還是輸了?因為俄羅斯占領了馬里烏波爾,可能很快就會包圍塞北頓涅茨克。

The peace party worries that the longer the fighting goes on, the greater the human and economic cost to Ukraine and the rest of the world.

和平黨擔心,戰斗持續的時間越長,烏克蘭和世界其他地區付出的人力和經濟代價就越大。

The justice camp retorts that sanctions on Russia are just starting to bite; with more time and more and better weapons Ukraine can win.

正義黨反駁說,對俄羅斯的制裁才剛剛開始奏效;有更多的時間和更多更好的武器,烏克蘭就能獲勝。

Behind all this lie two contradictory worries.

在這一切的背后,隱藏著兩個相互矛盾的擔憂。

One is that Russian forces are still strong and will prevail in a grinding war.

其一,俄羅斯軍隊仍然強大,并將在一場殘酷的戰爭中獲勝。

The other is that they are brittle.

另一個是它們很脆弱。

If routed, Russia could lash out at nato, or resort to chemical or even nuclear weapons to avoid defeat.

如果被擊敗,俄羅斯可能會猛烈抨擊北約,或者訴諸化學武器甚至核武器來避免失敗。

In the long term, says Emmanuel Macron, the French president, Europe will need to find a way of living with Russia.

法國總統埃馬紐埃爾·馬克龍表示,從長遠來看,歐洲需要找到一種與俄羅斯共處的方式。

Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, retorts, “It is much more dangerous giving in to Putin than provoking him.”

愛沙尼亞總理卡婭·卡拉斯反駁說:“向普京讓步比激怒他危險得多?!?/p>

American and European officials have quietly been helping Ukraine develop negotiating positions.

美國和歐洲官員一直在悄悄地幫助烏克蘭確立談判立場。

One point is its demand for security guarantees from the West.

其一是,它要求西方提供安全保障。

Short of a promise to defend Ukraine directly, ideas include the ability to “snap back” any sanctions on Russia that are lifted; and rearming Ukraine quickly if it is attacked again.

在沒有承諾直接保衛烏克蘭的情況下,這些想法包括“迅速還擊”解除對俄羅斯的任何制裁的能力;以及如果烏克蘭再次受到攻擊,迅速重新武裝烏克蘭。

Right now, Ukraine is reasonably optimistic.

目前,烏克蘭相當樂觀。

It has denied Russia an easy conquest, and new Western weapons are appearing on the front lines.

它否認了征服俄羅斯的容易,新的西方武器正在前線出現。

But speaking from the sandbagged presidential headquarters, Mykhailo Podolyak, Mr Zelensky’s chief negotiator, says he is increasingly concerned by the “fatigue” in some European countries.

但澤連斯基的首席談判代表米哈伊洛·波多利亞克在被沙袋包裹的總統總部發表講話時表示,他越來越擔心一些歐洲國家的“疲憊”。

“They don’t say it directly, but it feels like an attempt to force us to capitulate.

他們沒有直接說出來,但感覺像是在迫使我們投降。

Any ceasefire means a frozen conflict.”

任何?;鸲家馕吨粓鰞鼋Y的沖突。

He also complained of “inertia” in Washington: weapons are not arriving in the quantities Ukraine needs.

他還抱怨華盛頓方面的“惰性”:烏克蘭需要的武器數量沒有送達。

When the war ends will depend in large part on Russia.

戰爭何時結束將在很大程度上取決于俄羅斯。

It is in no hurry for a ceasefire.

它并不急于?;?。

It seems determined to conquer all of the Donbas in the east, and talks of taking more land in the west.

它似乎決心征服東部的所有頓巴斯人,并揚言要在西部奪取更多土地。

“The paradox of the situation is that both sides still believe they can win,” says Volodymyr Fesenko, a political analyst in Kyiv.

基輔的一位政治分析家弗洛迪米爾·費森科說:“局勢的矛盾之處在于,雙方仍然相信自己能贏?!?/p>

“Only if we really reach a stalemate, and Moscow and Kyiv recognise it as such, can any talk of compromise be possible.

莫斯科和基輔也承認這一點,只有我們真的陷入僵局,才有可能進行任何妥協的談判。

Even then, it is likely to be temporary.”

即使到那時,也只是暫時的。

重點單詞   查看全部解釋    
permanent ['pə:mənənt]

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adj. 永久的,持久的
n. 燙發

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compromise ['kɔmprəmaiz]

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n. 妥協,折衷,折衷案
vt. 妥協處理,危

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prevail [pri'veil]

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vi. 獲勝,盛行,主導

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avoid [ə'vɔid]

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vt. 避免,逃避

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provoking [prə'vəukiŋ]

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adj. 激怒人的,刺激人的 動詞provoke的現在分

 
defend [di'fend]

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v. 防護,辯護,防守

 
brittle ['britl]

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adj. 易碎的,敏感的,尖利的,冷淡的
n.

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prime [praim]

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adj. 最初的,首要的,最好的,典型的
n.

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contradictory [.kɔntrə'diktəri]

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adj. 矛盾的 n. 矛盾

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fatigue [fə'ti:g]

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n. 疲乏,疲勞,累活
adj. 疲勞的

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