評論
打印
Europe
歐洲版塊
Ukraine
烏克蘭
No ports in a storm
暴風雨中沒有港口
It will be hard for the economy to sustain a long war
該經濟體很難在長期戰爭中維持
The suspension of all maritime exports is a critical blow
暫停所有海上出口是一個重大打擊
For someone trying to run an economy in the middle of an invasion, Serhiy Marchenko is oddly upbeat.
對于一個試圖在入侵期間掌管經濟的人來說，謝爾蓋·馬爾琴科卻出奇地樂觀。
The Russians may have occupied or blockaded his country’s main ports and forced the shutdown of most of its businesses, but Ukraine’s finance minister radiates calm.
俄羅斯人可能占領或封鎖了烏克蘭的主要港口，并迫使大部分企業關閉，但烏克蘭財政部長表現得很平靜。
“The situation is very difficult, I am not going to minimise that,” he says over a latte in a slick café near his ministry. “But we can manage it.”
“形勢非常嚴峻，我不會小看這一點，”他在財政部附近的一家咖啡館里一邊喝著拿鐵咖啡一邊說，“但是我們可以做到。”
When an air-raid siren interrupts the interview, he simply ignores it.
當空襲警報打斷采訪時，他直接忽略。
Reasons not to panic are quite numerous.
不必恐慌的理由有很多。
Ukraine went into the war in good shape, with its economy growing at an annualised quarter-on-quarter pace of almost 7%;
烏克蘭戰時狀態良好，經濟季度環比增長率接近7%；
strong prices for its exports of grain, iron and steel; a well-regulated banking industry and a government deficit of less than 3% of gdp last year.
糧食、鋼鐵出口價格堅挺；銀行業監管良好，去年政府赤字不到GDP的3%。
Its debt stood at just under 50% of gdp, a number that many finance ministers can only dream of.
它的債務略低于GDP的50%，這是許多財政部長夢寐以求的數字。
An impressively digitised tax and benefits system means that revenues are still coming in smoothly from the parts of the economy that are still functioning.
一個不錯的數字化稅收和福利體系意味著，收入仍能順利地從仍在運轉的經濟部門獲得。
Pensions and government salaries are all still being paid, even in areas that are now under Russian occupation, thanks to resilient digital systems and a surprisingly unscathed internet.
養老金和政府工資仍在發放，甚至在俄羅斯占領的地區也是如此，這要歸功于靈活的數字系統和竟然毫無損傷的互聯網。
Most businesses, for now, are still paying their employees, even if they cannot operate as normal, or at all.
目前，即使他們無法正常運營，甚至根本不能正常運營，大多數企業仍在向員工支付工資。
Amazingly, payroll taxes are down by only 1%, the minister says.
部長說，令人驚訝的是，工資稅只下降了1%。
But it isn’t easy.
這并不容易。
The World Bank has predicted that Ukraine’s gdp will shrink by perhaps 45% in 2022.
世界銀行預測，2022年烏克蘭的GDP可能會縮水45%。
(“Our estimate is 44%,” Mr Marchenko grimaces.)
(“我們的估計是44%，”馬爾琴科做了個鬼臉。)
And both estimates are, of course, hugely uncertain.
當然，這兩種估計都存在很大的不確定性。
Customs revenues, a significant part of the government’s tax take, have crashed to around a quarter of their pre-war level thanks to lower imports and the suspension of many duties.
海關收入是政府稅收的重要組成部分，由于進口減少和許多關稅暫停，關稅收入已暴跌至戰前水平的四分之一左右。
Military salaries are another big burden.
軍人的工資是另一個巨大的負擔。
It all adds up to a financing gap of around $5bn every month, he says.
他表示，所有這些因素加在一起，每個月的財政缺口約為50億美元。
That is roughly 5% of Ukraine’s depleted gdp for every month that the war goes on.
這大約相當于烏克蘭在戰爭持續期間GDP的5%左右。
How to fill that?
該怎么填窟窿呢？
In part, Mr Marchenko says, by having the central bank print more money.
馬爾琴科表示，可以讓央行印制更多鈔票。
In part, too, by issuing war bonds, on which the government currently is paying around 11% interest, which is less than the inflation rate.
還可以通過發行利率為11%的戰爭債券，低于通貨膨脹率。
But the main source will need to be foreign.
但主要的資金來源需要來自國外。
And that, the finance minister says, is how he spends most of his day, lobbying foreign governments for help.
這位財政部長說，他每天大部分時間都在游說外國政府提供幫助。
America is where he has the highest hopes.
美國是他寄予最高希望的地方。
On April 28th President Joe Biden said he was asking Congress to authorise a further $33bn in new funds for Ukraine, since a previous facility is almost exhausted.
4月28日，美國總統喬·拜登表示，他正請求國會批準為烏克蘭再提供330億美元的資金，因為之前的一筆資金幾乎已經用完了。
The House of Representatives has voted to raise the amount to $40bn.
眾議院已投票決定將這一金額提高到400億美元。
Most of the money will be for arms, but at least $8.5bn is for economic support.
大部分資金將用于武器，但至少有85億美元用于經濟支持。
“It’s good news, but what will the American package look like, and when will it arrive? We don’t know,” says the minister.
這是個好消息，但美國的援助會是什么樣子，什么時候到達？我們不知道。“部長說。
