評論
打印
Asia
亞洲版塊
South Korean politics
韓國政治
Dangerous waters
危險的水域
The incoming president has already unpopular
這位即將上任的總統已經不受歡迎
For once, the braised shark fin is not the most controversial thing about Yeong Bin Gwan.
這一次，紅燒魚翅并不是迎賓館最有爭議的事情。
The grand banquet hall in Seoul, famed for the dubious delicacy, is where Yoon Suk-yeol, South Korea’s incoming president, will have his inauguration on May 10th.
5月10日，即將上任的韓國總統尹錫悅將在首爾的以奇怪美味著稱的盛大宴會廳舉行就職典禮。
The opposition Minjoo party complained that the event’s 3.3bn-won ($2.6m) budget makes it the most expensive inauguration ever.
反對黨共同民主黨抱怨稱，此次活動33億韓元(合260萬美元)的預算使其成為有史以來最昂貴的就職典禮。
Mr Yoon’s people explained that the venue adds only a meagre 500,000 won to the bill.
尹先生的工作人員解釋說，會場只給賬單增加了微不足道的50萬韓元。
Still, a Minjoo spokesman said it was tantamount to declaring South Korea a country where “the president comes first”.
不過，共同民主黨的一位發言人表示，這相當于宣布韓國是一個“總統至上”的國家。
Petty point-scoring is not new to South Korean politics.
在韓國政治中，小打小鬧并不是什么新鮮事。
High office attracts forensic scrutiny.
高級職位吸引了法醫的密切關注。
It will soon become routine for Mr Yoon.
這將很快成為尹錫悅的日常行程。
Shark fin or not, he will have a lot on his plate after inauguration day.
不管有沒有魚翅，在就職典禮之后，他都會有很多事情要做。
He must tackle many problems, including astronomical housing costs and the frustrations of young people who are well-educated but underemployed.
他必須解決許多問題，包括天文數字般的住房成本和受過良好教育但未充分就業的年輕人的挫敗感。
Mr Yoon has also promised structural reforms in several areas, including welfare, corporate regulation and criminal justice.
尹錫悅還承諾在多個領域進行結構性改革，包括福利、企業監管和刑事司法。
Even the executive branch is to be transformed: it will become an institution, his office has said, that “has autonomy, communicates and takes responsibility”.
就連行政部門也將進行改革：他的辦公室曾表示，它將成為一個“擁有自主權、溝通和承擔責任”的機構。
And that is just at home.
而這僅僅是國內的問題。
Mr Yoon must also deal with a dangerous world.
尹錫悅還必須應對一個危險的世界。
He hopes to draw closer to America, but also wants to avoid antagonising China, his country’s largest trading partner.
他希望拉近與美國的距離，但也希望避免激怒最大的貿易伙伴中國。
He has promised a harder line on North Korea, which has been increasingly bellicose in recent months, launching yet another missile on May 4th, just days before the inauguration.
他承諾對朝鮮采取更強硬的立場，朝鮮最近幾個月越來越好戰，在就職典禮前幾天的5月4日又發射了一枚導彈。
Such Herculean ambitions would be challenging for the most experienced and popular of leaders.
對于最有經驗和最受歡迎的領導人來說，這樣的巨大困難也會是一個挑戰。
Mr Yoon is neither.
而尹錫悅兩者都不是。
In 2016 his role in the impeachment of Park Geun-hye, a disgraced former president, on corruption charges earned him a promotion to chief prosecutor under Moon Jae-in, her successor.
2016年，他在因腐敗指控彈劾名譽掃地的前總統樸槿惠一案中的角色，使他在繼任者文在寅的領導下晉升為首席檢察官。
In that job Mr Yoon zealously pursued figures in Mr Moon’s government, bolstering his own anti-corruption credentials.
在擔任這一職務期間，尹錫悅熱衷于追隨文在寅政府中的人物，增強了自己的反腐資歷。
But he entered politics only when he announced his candidacy for president in June last year.
但直到去年6月宣布參選總統時，他才進入政壇。
Mr Yoon has promised a “fair administration that does not allow privileges or foul play”.
尹錫悅承諾要建立一個“公平的政府，不允許特權或違規行為”。
The public is sceptical about this claim, given the various allegations that tainted him and his family during the unedifying campaign, not to mention those flung at his opponent.
公眾對這一說法持懷疑態度，因為在這場不光彩的競選活動中，他和他的家人受到了各種各樣的指控，更不用說那些針對他的對手的指控了。
Despite his frequent claims to embody the will of the people, he won the election on March 9th with a margin of only 0.7%, the narrowest in the history of modern Korean democracy.
盡管他經常聲稱自己代表了人民的意愿，但他在3月9日的選舉中僅以0.7%的優勢獲勝，這是現代韓國民主歷史上選票差距最小的一次。
He enters office with the highest disapproval rating of any new president.
在歷任新總統中，他是最不受歡迎的。
As if his historic unpopularity and long to-do list did not pose enough of a challenge, Mr Yoon also faces a third impediment: his party does not have a majority in the National Assembly.
如果他歷史上的不受歡迎和長長的待辦事項清單還不足以構成挑戰的話，他還面臨著第三個障礙：他的政黨在國民議會中的席位不占多數。
Barring a mass defection, the Minjoo party, which holds 168 of 300 seats, will control the legislature at least until elections in 2024.
除非發生大規模叛逃，共同民主黨(擁有300個席位中的168個)將控制立法機構，至少到2024年選舉。
It can block Mr Yoon’s bills and try to force through its own.
它可以阻止尹錫悅的法案，并試圖強行通過自己的法案。
But the presidential veto is a trump car -- the opposition lacks the numbers to overturn it.
但總統的否決權是一張王牌——反對派缺乏足夠的票數來推翻它。
The most likely result will be paralysis.
最有可能的結果將是癱瘓。
Mr Yoon has said he hopes his administration will be able to “overcome the division of ideologies”.
尹錫悅曾表示，他希望他的政府能夠“克服意識形態的分歧”。
But he will be encircled by sharks.
但他會被“鯊魚”包圍。
