評論
打印
Here is GDP per capita from 1900 to 1929. Now let's imagine that you were an economist in 1929, trying to forecast future growth for the United States,
這是人均國內生產總值從1900年到1929年。讓我們想象一下，在1929年，如果你是一位經濟學家試圖預測美國的未來經濟增長率，
not knowing that the economy was about to go off a cliff, not knowing that we were about to enter the greatest economic disaster certainly in the 20th century.
你還不知道美國經濟即將猛降。不知道我們即將進入20世紀最重大的經濟災難期。
What would you have predicted, not knowing this? If you had based your prediction, your forecast on 1900 to 1929 you'd have predicted something like this.
不知道這些情況，你會怎樣預測呢？如果你的預測是根據1900年至1929年的平均增長速度，你預測的結果大概是這樣。
If you'd been a little more optimistic -- say, based upon the Roaring Twenties -- you'd have said this.
如果你更樂觀一點，根據興隆的20年代來預測，你會得到這個結論。
So what actually happened? We went off a cliff but we recovered.
那么實際情況如何呢？我們掉下了懸崖，但我們恢復過來了。
In fact in the second half of the 20th century growth was even higher than anything you would have predicted based upon the first half of the 20th century.
事實上，20世紀下半葉的增長速度遠遠超過了任何預測，如果你的預測是基于20世紀上半葉的數據。
So growth can wash away even what appears to be a great depression.
所以說，經濟增長可以沖走大蕭條造成的損失。
Alright. What else? Oil. Oil. This was a big topic. When I was writing up my notes oil was $140 per barrel. So people were asking a question.
好。還有什么值得考慮的呢？石油。石油。這是一個大課題。當我在準備這個講演的時候，石油是140美元一桶。所以，大家都在想一個問題。
They were saying, "Is China drinking our milkshake?" And there is some truth to this, in the sense that we have something of a finite resource,
他們在問，“中國在喝我們的奶昔么？”這是有一定的道理的。如果考慮到有限的資源。
and increased growth is going to push up demand for that. But I think I don't have to tell this audience that a higher price of oil is not necessarily a bad thing.
隨著經濟增長的加快，對資源的需求也會增加。但我認為在坐的觀眾不用我講就明白，石油價格增長并不一定是一件壞事。
