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Now you can see some of the reasons why I'm optimistic. Globalization is increasing the demand for ideas, the incentive to create new ideas.
現在你可以理解我為什么對此充滿信心。全球化在增大對創新的需求，這是創新的動力。
Investments in education are increasing the supply of new ideas.
教育投資使我們產出更多的創新想法。
In fact if you look at world history you can see some reasons for optimism. From about the beginnings of humanity to 1500: zero economic growth, nothing.
事實上，如果你看看世界歷史你可以看到一些樂觀的理由。從人類的起源到1500年，經濟增長率為零，沒有任何增長。
1500 to 1800: maybe a little bit of economic growth, but less in a century than you expect to see in a year today.
1500至1800年，只有一點點的經濟增長。但那時一個世紀的經濟增長比現在一年的增長還少。
1900s: maybe one percent. Twentieth century: a little bit over two percent. Twenty-first century could easily be 3.3, even higher percent.
1900年代，增長率大約是百分之一。二十世紀，百分之二多一點。二十一世紀，增長率可達到百分之3.3，或者更高。
Even at that rate, by 2100 average GDP per capita in the world will be $200,000. That's not U.S. GDP per capita, which will be over a million,
即使是以這樣的速度發展，到2100年，世界人均國內生產總值將達到20萬美元。這不是美國的人均國內生產總值，它將超過100萬。
but world GDP per capita -- $200,000. That's not that far. We won't make it. But some of our grandchildren probably will.
但世界人均國內生產總值是20萬美元。這不是遠不可及的。我們看不到那一天了。但我們的孫子們大概會的。
And I should say, I think this is a rather modest prediction. In Kurzweilian terms this is gloomy. In Kurzweilian terms I'm like the Eeyore of economic growth.
而且據我看，我認為這是一個相當適中的預測。在Kurzweilian看來，這個預測很悲觀。在Kurzweilian看來，我象Eeyore的角色一樣，對經濟增長很悲觀。
Alright what about problems? What about a great depression? Well let's take a look. Let's take a look at the Great Depression.
好。那么會遇到什么樣的問題呢？大蕭條會不會再發生？那么讓我們來看看。讓我們來看一下大蕭條時期。
