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時(shí)代周刊:"千禧一代"即將成為時(shí)代的主宰(4)

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But the data tell a different story.

然而,數(shù)據(jù)講述的卻是另一個(gè)故事。

Researchers have found that popular Presidents tend to attract young people to their party, while unpopular Presidents repel them.

研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn),受歡迎的總統(tǒng)往往能吸引年輕人加入其政黨,反之則會(huì)讓年輕人反感其政黨。

Those formative attitudes are persistent:

這種逐漸養(yǎng)成的態(tài)度還會(huì)持續(xù)下去:

if you're disenchanted by a Republican President as a teenager,

如果你在青少年時(shí)期對(duì)某位共和黨總統(tǒng)感到過(guò)失望,

you're disproportionately more likely to vote for Democrats well into your adult life.

那你成年后投票給民主黨的可能性就會(huì)比其他人高出許多。

One Pew study of 2012 data found that those who turned 18 during the unpopular Republican Richard Nixon years

皮尤研究中心研究2012年的調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)現(xiàn),不受歡迎的共和黨總統(tǒng)理查德·尼克松執(zhí)政期間成年的那些人

were more likely to vote for Democrat Barack Obama,

在2012年總統(tǒng)競(jìng)選時(shí)更傾向于投票給民主黨的巴拉克·奧巴馬,

while those who turned 18 just a decade later, during the prosperous Ronald Reagan years,

而比他們晚10年,也即在羅納德·里根給美國(guó)帶來(lái)繁榮昌盛的那段時(shí)間成年的人

tended to vote for Obama's GOP opponent in the 2012 presidential race, Mitt Romney.

則傾向于投票給奧巴馬的共和黨對(duì)手米特·羅姆尼。

In several studies, Andrew Gelman, a political scientist at Columbia University,

哥倫比亞大學(xué)的政治學(xué)家安德魯·吉爾曼

and Yair Ghitza, chief scientist at Catalist, a data provider for Democratic and progressive organizations,

與民主進(jìn)步組織的數(shù)據(jù)服務(wù)商Catalist的首席科學(xué)家亞爾·吉扎經(jīng)過(guò)多次研究發(fā)現(xiàn),

found that political events experienced between the ages of 14 and 24 have roughly triple the impact of events experienced later in life.

一個(gè)人14~24歲之間經(jīng)歷的政治事件對(duì)他/她的影響大約是在之后的生活中經(jīng)歷的事件的影響的三倍。

(Their research focused on white voters,

(他們的研究對(duì)象主要是白人選民,

since longitudinal data on voters of color is more difficult to find.)

因?yàn)楹茈y找到涉及有色人種選民的縱向數(shù)據(jù)。)

"It's much more about cohort than age," Gelman says.

“比起年齡,這個(gè)問(wèn)題跟世代的關(guān)系更大,”蓋爾曼說(shuō)。

"One way of understanding these up and down trend lines over the decades is asking:

要理解幾十年來(lái)這些起起伏伏的趨勢(shì),一個(gè)辦法就是想一想,

What happened when people were young?"

在大家年輕的時(shí)候究竟發(fā)生了什么?”

Consider, then, the millennial generation's experience of America so far.

現(xiàn)在,不妨回想一下到目前為止,千禧一代體會(huì)到的是怎樣的一個(gè)美國(guó)?

For many, their political awakening came on Sept.11, 2001.

對(duì)很多千禧一代而言,他們的政治覺(jué)醒都是從2001年9月11日那天開(kāi)始的。

Ocasio-Cortez, then a seventh-grader, remembers coming home early from school and watching the towers fall on television,

當(dāng)時(shí)才上7年級(jí)的奧卡西奧-科特茲記得,那天她放學(xué)后到家很早,看著電視里的(世貿(mào)中心)雙子塔逐漸倒塌,

wondering whether her mom would be home from work in time for the apocalypse.

她擔(dān)心媽媽是否能在末日來(lái)臨前及時(shí)下班回家。

1

Representative Max Rose, then a high school freshman,

現(xiàn)任眾議員馬克斯·羅斯當(dāng)時(shí)還是一名高一新生,

surprised his parents after the tragedy by hanging an American flag in his messy teenage bedroom in New York City.

悲劇發(fā)生后,家住紐約市的他便在自己那凌亂的中學(xué)生臥室里掛上了一面美國(guó)國(guó)旗,讓他的父母大感意外。

Stefanik, who was a high school senior in Albany, N.Y.,

當(dāng)時(shí)還是紐約州(首府)奧爾巴尼市高三學(xué)生的斯蒂芬尼克記得,

remembers watching a friend collapse on the floor because her sister worked in one of the towers.

一個(gè)朋友因?yàn)橛薪憬阍谄渲幸蛔枪ぷ鳟?dāng)場(chǎng)暈倒在了地上。

(The friend's sister was ultimately found safe.)

(后來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)這位朋友的姐姐安然無(wú)恙。)

"It's one of the reasons I wanted to go into public policy," Stefanik told me later.

“這就是我想從事公共政策領(lǐng)域的原因之一,”斯蒂芬尼克后來(lái)告訴我。

"On that day, we became a globally aware generation."

“就是那天,我們蛻變成了擁有全球意識(shí)的一代人。”

The millennials who enlisted to fight in the endless wars that followed would learn firsthand the consequences of American foreign policy.

而那些隨后應(yīng)征加入了無(wú)休無(wú)止的戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)的千禧一代親身品嘗到了美國(guó)外交政策的惡果。

Crenshaw, who was also in high school on 9/11, lost his eye in Afghanistan while serving as a Navy SEAL,

9·11事件發(fā)生時(shí)同樣在上高中的克倫肖后來(lái)加入了海豹突擊隊(duì),他在阿富汗服役時(shí)失去了眼睛,

completing a mission he thought was a misguided use of resources by Obama's Pentagon.

而在他看來(lái),他當(dāng)時(shí)執(zhí)行的任務(wù)不過(guò)是奧巴馬領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的五角大樓對(duì)資源的一場(chǎng)誤用。

Rose was injured by an improvised explosive device in Afghanistan;

羅斯在阿富汗被簡(jiǎn)易爆炸裝置炸傷;

his life was saved by a new kind of Stryker vehicle that has been recently funded by Congress.

后為最近拿到了國(guó)會(huì)贊助的一款新型史賽克車(chē)所救。

When Buttigieg arrived in Afghanistan as a naval intelligence officer in 2014,

2014年,布蒂吉格作為海軍情報(bào)官員抵達(dá)阿富汗時(shí),

his fellow officers told him the war was over:

他的戰(zhàn)友告訴他,戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)已經(jīng)結(jié)束了:

he spent most of his nights in his bunk,

他晚上的大部分時(shí)間都是在他的床鋪上度過(guò)的,

reading Tolstoy's War and Peace and thinking about the question Vietnam veteran John Kerry once asked during congressional testimony:

讀托爾斯泰的《戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)與和平》,思考越戰(zhàn)老兵約翰·克里在國(guó)會(huì)作證時(shí)提出的問(wèn)題:

"How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?"

“如何說(shuō)服一個(gè)人去當(dāng)最后那個(gè)為錯(cuò)誤獻(xiàn)身的人?”

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