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Interest rates make matters worse.
利率導致了事態(tài)的進一步惡化。
The Fed policy setting that neither stokes nor reins in growth has been creeping lower as growth slows,
隨著經濟增長放緩，美聯(lián)儲既不刺激也不控制經濟增長的所謂中性利率水平已經緩慢下行，
a trend that has been slowly playing out for years across advanced economies.
然而，所有發(fā)達經濟體都出現(xiàn)了這一趨勢，且都已緩慢發(fā)展數(shù)年。
That’s why policymakers have not been able to lift rates more despite a very long expansion:
這就是經過了長期擴張，政策制定者仍未能進一步提高利率的原因：
The economy needs very low rates just to sustain historically ho-hum progress.
盡管從歷史角度來看，當前的增速平平無奇，但要維持這一增速，美聯(lián)儲必須讓利率維持在低位。
And it leaves the Fed with far less ammunition to fight future downturns.
這樣一來，未來經濟出現(xiàn)下行，美聯(lián)儲采取貨幣政策的空間就會十分有限。
Gone are the days of cutting 5 percentage points to goad growth back to life, as the Fed did in 2007 and 2008.
像2007年和2008年那樣削減5個百分點以刺激經濟增長的日子已經一去不返。
Between the continuing shortfall and the Fed’s more limited room to maneuver,
美國經濟一而再再而三地未能如愿增長，加上美聯(lián)儲的施展空間越來越小，
officials think the risks of waiting too long to adjust policy are much greater than the costs of going early and later discovering that they could have held off.
官員們認為，調整政策之前等待太久帶來的風險要遠大于早早地采取措施，哪怕后來發(fā)現(xiàn)原本可以推遲行動的成本。
“It’s better to take preventive measures than to wait for disaster to unfold,”
“與其坐等災難發(fā)生，不如提前采取預防措施，”
John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said on July 18.
紐約聯(lián)邦儲備銀行行長約翰·C·威廉姆斯在7月18日說道。
“When you only have so much stimulus at your disposal,
“當你手上只有這么多刺激措施時，
it pays to act quickly to lower rates at the first sign of economic distress.”
首次出現(xiàn)經濟不景氣的跡象時就迅速采取行動，降低利率是有好處的。”
The Fed has acted early to get ahead of the curve in the past.
過去，美聯(lián)儲實行的就是提前采取行動這一策略。
Of the seven initial rate cuts that have happened outside of recessions in the past 30 years —
過去30年里，除去經濟衰退時期，美國一共實行了7輪降息，就每一輪的首次降息而言——
moves that were or could have been seen as precautionary — 1998 is the most similar to now.
當時被視為或原本能被視為預防措施的舉措——1998年的情形和當下最為接近。
As “Armageddon” smashed the box office and 8-year-olds across the country struggled to keep Tamagotchis alive,
那年，《世界末日》打破了票房紀錄，全國各地8歲的孩子都在忙著養(yǎng)他們的電子寵物Tamagotchis，
the job market looked hot, inflation lingered below 2 percent,
就業(yè)市場十分火爆，通脹率也維持在2%以下，
and, like today, the economic picture at home looked mixed as risks abroad mounted.
此外，和當下的情形一樣，國內的經濟形勢已經喜憂參半，因為國外風險越來越大——
Back then a financial crisis in Russia, a contraction in Japan and election and reforms in Brazil threatened the United States expansion.
當時，俄羅斯出現(xiàn)了金融危機、日本經濟也在衰退、加上巴西的選舉和改革，這些因素無不威脅著美國經濟的進一步擴張。
The Fed cut by a quarter-point in September 1998 and followed that up with an impromptu cut in mid-October and another in November.
1998年9月，美聯(lián)儲降息25個基點，隨后的10月中旬和11月也接連采取了臨時降息。
The economy righted itself.
正因如此，當年的經濟才得以恢復正常。
But there are major differences between that experience and this one.
問題是，那次的情形與當下有著重大區(qū)別。
The Fed moved quickly in 1998 while stock markets were sinking on the heels of very real events,
那一次，美聯(lián)儲迅速采取了行動，盡管大型對沖基金長期資本管理公司（LTCM）幾近倒閉等
including the near-failure of Long-Term Capital Management, a major hedge fund.
看似不太可能，實則千真萬確的事情一發(fā)生，美國股市就出現(xiàn)了大跌。
This time, the Fed merely signaled coming moves when both real economic data and stocks were wobbling back in May and early June,
這一次，早在5月到6月初，由于深受貿易戰(zhàn)升級這一恐慌情緒的驚嚇，美國的實際經濟數(shù)據(jù)和股市都已經出現(xiàn)了波動，
spooked by the specter of trade escalation.
即便如此，美聯(lián)儲也只是發(fā)出了即將采取行動的信號，
Economic data has since improved, and the Fed’s guidance helped to send equity indexes to record highs.
自那以來，經濟數(shù)據(jù)已經有所好轉，美聯(lián)儲的領導也推動股指上升至創(chuàng)記錄水平。
“We did not move at the June meeting, but in effect we did move at the June meeting, because markets already priced that in,”
“我們并沒有在6月的會議上采取行動，但因為市場已經把波動算進去了，所以也就相當于我們那時就已經開始采取行動了，”
James Bullard, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, told reporters on July 19.
圣路易斯聯(lián)邦儲備銀行行長詹姆斯·布拉德7月19日對記者說道。
Mr. Bullard and other Fed officials have tried to signal that this cut may be isolated if the economy stays on track.
布拉德和其他美聯(lián)儲官員一直試圖暗示如果經濟能夠維持在正軌上，這次降息之后或許不會出現(xiàn)二次降息。
Despite their assurances that policy will be flexible and data-dependent and a recent improvement in several economic indicators,
盡管他們保證未來的政策尊重數(shù)據(jù)且足夠靈活，盡管最近幾個經濟指標均已有所改善，
market pricing suggests investors are betting on further easing before the end of the year.
市場價格表明，投資者還在指望今年年底之前出現(xiàn)二次降息。
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