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The Fed raised rates nine times in total, and four times in 2018, before pausing this year.
2015年12月美國啟動本輪加息周期至今年暫停加息為止，美聯儲已經9次加息，2018年就加了4次。
This move is seen by many as a recalibration to help the economy remain on track, not the start of a cycle that will return rates to rock bottom.
在許多人看來，降息都只是為避免經濟脫軌而進行的一次調整，而非讓利率重回谷底這一周期的開始。
Yet in cutting now, the Fed is effectively ending its campaign to put economic policy back to normal.
然而，通過這次降息，美聯儲無異于放棄了讓經濟政策回歸正常的努力。
The shift confirms that interest rates will be much lower from now on, leaving the economy in a much more fragile state.
此次調整也證實，從現在起，利率將大幅下行，美國經濟將陷入比當下還要脆弱得多的處境。
After years of increases, interest rates remain historically low
經過多年的加息，利率仍處于歷史低位，
and economic output, while growing, has hovered at a disappointing 2 percent for most of the past decade as population aging
隨著人口逐漸老齡化，我國的經濟產出雖然有所增長，但過去10年大部分時間的增長率都徘徊在2%這一不盡人意的水平，
and slow productivity gains weigh down its potential.
而生產率提高緩慢也妨礙了其潛力的發揮。
Inflation also remains mired below the Fed’s goal.
通貨膨脹率也沒有達到美聯儲的預期目標。
The Fed’s target interest rate stands between 2.25 and 2.50 percent, roughly half of its 5.25 percent level before the financial crisis,
美聯儲的目標利率在2.25%~2.50%之間，大致為金融危機前的5.25%這一水平的一半，
leaving the central bank with limited room to act in the event of a recession.
倘若經濟出現衰退，央行的施展空間將十分有限。
“It’s much more fragile,” Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton, said of the economy,
談及國家經濟形勢時，“致同國際”首席經濟學家戴安·斯旺克表示：“比預期脆弱得多，”
explaining that consumers and businesses should be “euphoric” this late in a cycle but are not.
他解釋說，當下，經濟周期已經接近尾聲，消費者和企業卻并沒有“欣快”之感。
That reflects “the uncertainty, and the scars — we still have scars from the crisis,” she said.
這反映了“經濟形勢不明朗和傷疤——金融危機留下的傷疤至今都未消退，”她說.
The stock market has gyrated over the past year on worries about Mr. Trump’s trade wars,
過去一年，鑒于對特朗普的貿易戰，中國經濟增速放緩，
a slowdown in China and the prospect of the Fed pushing through more rate increases.
以及美聯儲可能進一步加息的重重憂慮，股市也出現了波動。
Consumers pulled back their spending late last year as uncertainties mounted, a sign of how susceptible they might be to any downturn.
去年年底，隨著不確定性增加，消費者紛紛縮減支出，這一現象表明，任何程度的經濟低迷都可能沖擊到他們。
The central bank is paying attention to that vulnerability.
央行已經開始重視消費者的這一弱點。
Following signaling by policymakers, investors anticipate that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter-point this month and once more this year.
政策制定者發出信號后，投資者們預計，美聯儲本月的降息幅度可能為25個基點，今年可能還會二次降息。
Fed officials expect to eventually resume raising rates, based on their June economic projections,
美聯儲官員預料他們終將恢復加息，因6月份的經濟預測顯示，
which show a rebound in 2021 and a slightly higher Fed funds rate over the longer run.
2021年美國經濟將出現反彈，從長期來看，美國聯邦基金利率也將出現小幅上升。
But many analysts say it is unlikely that the Fed will lift again before the economy tips into a recession.
然而，許多分析師都表示，除非陷入經濟衰退，否則美聯儲已經不太可能再次加息。
That would make the current rate setting this business cycle’s peak.
倘若真的陷入經濟衰退，當前利率就將成為本輪經濟周期的峰值。
“We think we’re in the beginning of the end,” said Subadra Rajappa, head of United States Rates Strategy at Societe Generale.
“我們認為，我們已經進入本輪經濟周期的最后階段，”法國興業銀行美國利率策略主管蘇帕德拉·拉賈帕表示。
Her team expects a downturn, and further rate cuts, in 2020.
她的團隊預計，2020年，美國經濟將出現下滑及進一步降息。
Even if it keeps a recession at bay, the Fed is working against a perilous backdrop.
即便美聯儲阻止了經濟衰退，也要在十分驚險的形勢下完成這一舉措。
The central bank is tasked with maintaining full employment and stable inflation, which it defines as price gains around 2 percent.
央行肩負著保持充分就業和通脹穩定的任務，而其對穩定的定義為物價上漲幅度在2%左右。
That’s enough to fend off economy-harming deflation.
這些就足以抵御有害于經濟的通貨緊縮的影響了。
Policymakers have yet to hit their price goal sustainably:
政策制定者仍未能以可持續的方式實現他們的物價目標：
Their preferred inflation gauge came in at just 1.5 percent in the year through May.
在截至5月的一年中，他們的核心通脹指標僅為1.5%。
Officials have been banking on continued economic growth to push wages and prices up —
官員們一直指望持續的經濟增長能夠推動工資和物價上漲——
so any slowdown could ensure they miss their goal, denting their credibility.
因此，任何程度的經濟放緩都必然會令他們的希望落空，動搖他們的可信度。
“On the basis of inflation alone, I could feel confident in arguing for a couple of rate cuts before the end of the year,”
芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行行長查爾斯·埃文斯 7月16日表示：
Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said on July 16.
“僅就通脹而言，我敢肯定地說，年底前還會出現一兩次降息。”
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