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Fed Is Closing In On First Rate Cut Since 2008 Crisis.
美聯儲即將迎來金融危機后的首次降息
By Jeanna Smialek
文/吉安娜·施密亞勒克
The Federal Reserve this week will most likely cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, when the economy was mired in a deep recession,
由于中央銀行試圖阻止美國一直頗為強勁的經濟增長放緩，
as the central bank tries to keep a record economic expansion from petering out.
美聯儲本周很可能迎來2008年經濟陷入嚴重衰退以來的首次降息。
The expected change, while likely to be small, will end an era of gradual rate increases
預計此次降息幅度不會很大，但仍將終結漸進加息的時代——
intended to return the economy to a more “normal” state in the wake of the Great Recession,
在此之前，為拯救經濟，使經歷了“大衰退”的美國經濟恢復“正常”，
when the Fed slashed rates to near zero as it tried to rescue the economy.
美聯儲已將利率降至接近于零的低位。
The Fed’s approach has largely worked —
這一舉措大致已經奏效——
the United States economy is growing, unemployment is at a 50-year low and wages are slowly rising.
美國經濟已呈增長之勢，失業率降至50年來最低水平，工資水平也已徐徐上漲。
But a rate cut at this moment in the cycle sends a signal: The current economy could be as good as it gets.
然而，在當前這樣良好的經濟形勢下降息無異于釋放了這樣一個信號：當前經濟或已觸頂。
The Fed’s move on Wednesday may cheer President Trump,
美聯儲周三的這一舉措或許能令特朗普總統感到些許快慰，
who has jawboned the central bank for a year over its 2018 rate increases,
因央行2018年加息一事，這一年來，特朗普一直在對央行施壓，
saying the economy would have gone up “like a rocket” had the Fed not gotten it wrong.
聲稱若不是美聯儲犯了錯，美國經濟會“像火箭一樣”騰飛。
“The Fed acted too soon. I turned out to be right, they acted too soon and too violently,”
“美聯儲加息加得太倉促了。事實證明我是對的，他們確實過于倉促，過于猛烈了，”
Mr. Trump said on Friday at the White House.
特朗普周五在白宮說道。
But the Fed, which operates independently of the White House, is likely to make a move driven by precaution, not politics,
然而，運作獨立于白宮的美聯儲采取這一行動的考量可能是為了預防而非政治因素，
as it tries to inoculate the economy against the harmful effects of slowing global growth and Mr. Trump’s trade war.
因其試圖令美國經濟免受世界經濟增長放緩和特朗普貿易戰的不利影響。
While the United States economy continues to chug along, cracks are beginning to show.
盡管美國經濟當下依然強勁，裂痕已經開始顯現。
Manufacturing gauges, which often lead the rest of the economy, are slumping across the world.
就全球范圍來看，生產指標，通常帶動著其他經濟部門，都已陷入衰退。
Business investment and confidence have suffered under Mr. Trump’s trade spats and tariffs.
商業投資和市場信心紛紛受到了特朗普的貿易爭端和關稅政策的沖擊。
A potent recession indicator is flashing red — rates on 10-year bonds have been lower than those on 3-month government securities,
強有力的經濟衰退指標已經亮起紅燈——10年期國債的利率一直低于3月期國債的利率，
a sign that investors are pessimistic about the future.
表明投資者并不看好美國經濟的未來。
The effect of Mr. Trump’s $1.5 trillion tax cut is waning and businesses report that they are holding off on expanding,
特朗普簽署的1.5萬億美元的減稅法案的效力正在衰減，各企業紛紛報告他們已推遲擴張，
in part because of concern about global economic growth and a protracted trade dispute between the United States and China.
部分原因在于對全球經濟增長的擔憂以及美國和中國之間曠日持久的貿易爭端。
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced in the economy,
周五公布的數據顯示，國內生產總值(GDP)——衡量一個經濟體生產的商品和服務價值總和最廣泛的指標——
rose at a 2.1 percent annual rate in the second quarter, according to data released on Friday.
第二季度增速為2.1%。
That is a decent pace, but it shows the economy is reverting to normal after a 3.1 percent growth rate in the first quarter.
這一增速還算強勁，但也表明美國經濟已從第一季度3.1%的增速恢復正常。
Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has been signaling a possible rate cut,
美聯儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾一直在暗示可能降息，
telling lawmakers this month that “the uncertainties around global growth and trade continue to weigh on the outlook”
本月早些時候，他對議員們表示，“全球增長和貿易的不確定性依然籠罩著我國經濟的前景，”
and that the Fed would act as needed to sustain the economic expansion.
美聯儲將采取必要的行動維持經濟的繼續擴張。
Anticipation of a cut may already be providing a slight economic jolt by lowering consumer interest rates and sending stocks soaring,
對降息的預期或已推動美國經濟出現輕微提振，在降低消費利率的同時刺激了股市的大漲，
giving companies more reason to invest and consumers an extra nudge to buy a house or a car.
為企業提供了更充分的投資理由的同時賦予了消費者更大的購車購房動力。
譯文由可可原創，僅供學習交流使用，未經許可請勿轉載。
