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On November 9th, 2016, around 2:30 a.m. Eastern Time, Donald Trump won enough electoral votes to become the President-elect of the United States of America. Trump's victory was unprecedented, unexpected, and for many on both sides of the political spectrum, unbelievable.
2016年11月9日東部時間凌晨2點半左右，唐納德·特朗普贏得了足夠多的的選票，成為美利堅合眾國總統當選人。特朗普的勝利是前所未有的、出乎意料的，而且對兩黨的許多人來說是難以置信的。
Seemingly everything we thought we knew about polling, the media, and the population itself was wrong. So how did Donald Trump win the 2016 Election? Well, one major upset was the inability to predict which candidate each demographic would prefer.
我們以為自己對民調、媒體和民眾本身所了解的一切似乎都是錯誤的。那么，唐納德·特朗普是如何贏得2016年大選的？一個大冷門在于無法預測每個人更喜歡哪名候選人。
According to preliminary exit polls, Trump carried mostly white, male voters, while Clinton carried minority female voters. But a smaller proportion of white, black, hispanic, and Asian-American voters cast their ballots for the Democratic candidate in 2016 than in 2012, something polls were unable to predict. Minority voters were expected to make up for Clinton's lower performance among white male voters, especially following xenophobic, and arguably racist rhetoric from Trump.
根據初步的選舉后民調顯示，特朗普的得票主要來自白人和男性選民，而克林頓的得票則來自少數族裔和女性選民。但與2012年相比，2016年投票給民主黨候選人的白人、黑人、西班牙裔和亞裔美國選民比例較小，而民調是無法預測這一點的。預計少數族裔選民將彌補克林頓在白人男性選民中的較差表現，尤其是在特朗普發表排外、甚至可以說是種族主義言論之后。
Clinton's inability to garner enough votes from these demographics is part of the reason Clinton narrowly lost in key states such as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Since 1992 these states have been Democratic presidential strongholds, but they have large populations of rural and working class white voters, who make up a majority of Trump's base.
克林頓無法從這些人口統計數據中獲得足夠的選票，這也是克林頓在威斯康星州、賓夕法尼亞州和密歇根州等關鍵州以微弱劣勢落敗的部分原因。自1992年以來，這些州一直是民主黨總統候選人的大本營，但他們有大量農村和工人階級白人選民，特朗普支持者的大多數都是由這些選民組成。
In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney in Wisconsin by seven points, whereas this year, Clinton lost by just a single point. Clinton's problem in 2016 was that she simply did not gather the Democratic support she needed, while Trump's base stayed consistent.
2012年，巴拉克·奧巴馬在威斯康星州以7個百分點的優勢擊敗米特·羅姆尼，而今年克林頓僅以1個百分點的劣勢落敗。2016年，克林頓的問題在于，她根本沒有得到她所需要的民主黨支持，而特朗普的支持根基則保持穩定。
Between 2012 and 2016 nearly an identical number of Wisconsin voters voted Republican, 1.4 million, while roughly a quarter of a million fewer people voted Democrat. When more people vote, Democrats tend to win, and in this election, more people didn't vote Democrat. In 2008, nearly ten million more voted Democratic than Republican, in 2012 that number was down to six million, and in 2016 the two parties had nearly the same number of voters.
比較2012年和2016年的選票，幾乎相同數量的威斯康星州選民投給了共和黨，也就是140萬人，而投票支持民主黨的人數減少了25萬人左右。當更多的人投票時，民主黨往往會獲勝，而在這次選舉中，更多的人并沒有投票給民主黨。2008年，給民主黨投票的選民比給共和黨投票的選民多出近1000萬人；2012年，這一數字下降到600萬；到了2016年，投票給兩黨的選民人數幾乎相同。
