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(Now)THE RISK REPORT By Ian Bremmer
（接下來是）風險報告 文/伊恩· 布雷默
Italy's populists wring votes from anti-migrant fervor
意大利民粹主義者利用反移民思潮榨取選票
In any country where voting matters, politicians must find an issue emotive enough to drive their voters to the polls.
在任何重視選舉的國家，政客們都要依靠足夠敏感的話題來以推動他們的選民參與民調(diào)。
Italy votes on March 4, and immigration has become the dominant election-year controversy.
意大利于3月4日進行了選舉，移民問題成了本次選舉最具爭議的話題。
We shouldn't be surprised.
對此我們并不奇怪。
Unlike those of Spain and Ireland, Italy's economy hasn't enjoyed a notable turnaround.
與西班牙和愛爾蘭不同，意大利的經(jīng)濟并未出現(xiàn)明顯好轉(zhuǎn)。
It has grown for more than three years,
盡管三年多來意大利的經(jīng)濟一直在增長，
but it needs another six years at the current pace to return to GDP levels last seen before the 2008 financial crisis.
但照目前的發(fā)展節(jié)奏來看，要恢復到2008年金融危機前的GDP水平，還需要6年時間。
The official unemployment rate stands at around 11%.
官方失業(yè)率高達11％左右。
Many Italians say their taxes are too high, their cities are dirty and dangerous, and their politicians are hopelessly corrupt.
很多意大利人都抱怨賦稅太高，城市骯臟而危險以及政治家們腐敗得無可救藥。
Now add the 600,000 migrants who have landed in Italy over the past four years.
如今又多了60萬過去四年內(nèi)陸陸續(xù)續(xù)抵達意大利的移民。
The flow slowed sharply in the second half of last year,
盡管去年下半年移民流涌入的速度大幅減緩，
but boats from North Africa still bring refugees across the Mediterranean, particularly from strife-torn Libya.
但來自北非的船只還在繼續(xù)往地中海輸送難民，尤其是來自飽受沖突摧殘的利比亞的難民。
The most likely election outcome is another of Italy's famously unstable coalition governments.
意大利多黨執(zhí)政導致政壇不穩(wěn)的情況早就聲名在外，本次選舉最終極有可能再次陷入這一僵局。
Silvio Berlusconi—forbidden, as a convicted tax fraudster, from serving another term as Prime Minister—may instead become kingmaker,
或許西爾維奧·貝盧斯科尼——其涉嫌稅務欺詐案的罪名已被證實，被判處取消連任首相的資格——反而能成為擁立國家領(lǐng)導人之人，
if asked to decide whether his center-right Forza Italia should ally with the far-right League (formerly the Northern League) or the center-left Democratic Party.
如果讓他來決定中右翼的力量黨到底是與極右翼的聯(lián)盟黨（前身為北方聯(lián)盟黨）結(jié)盟，還是與中左翼的民主黨結(jié)盟的話。
Polling suggests the populist Five Star Movement (5SM) is the most popular single party, but it would need one or more far-right partners to lead a government.
民意調(diào)查顯示，民粹主義政黨五星運動黨（5SM）是最受歡迎的唯一政黨，但要領(lǐng)導政府它還需要與一個或多個極右翼政黨結(jié)盟。
Immigration has driven the debate.
移民問題也在這一辯論中起到了推動作用。
Berlusconi has called migrants a "bomb ready to explode."
貝盧斯科尼稱移民為“隨時會爆炸的炸彈”。
Along with the leaders of 5SM and the League, he has promised his party would deport all 600,000 of them—
他與五星運動黨，聯(lián)盟黨的領(lǐng)導人一致承諾過，他領(lǐng)導的政黨會將所有60萬移民悉數(shù)驅(qū)逐出境 -
with no credible explanation of how that could be done, or where they would be sent.
但具體要怎么做，那些移民又會被送往哪里，貝盧斯科尼并未作出可靠的解釋。
Berlusconi also pledges soldiers on the streets to maintain order.
此外，貝盧斯科尼還呼吁街頭的士兵維持好秩序。
Only former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's Democratic Party supports a more welcoming approach.
只有前總理馬泰奧·倫齊領(lǐng)導的民主黨支持對移民采取更寬容的態(tài)度。
Here as elsewhere, immigration plays well for populists, because those fearful and angry about new arrivals are ready to talk about it.
與其他地方一樣，移民問題也成了意大利民粹主義者的工具，因為那些恐懼并憎惡新來的移民的人隨時都愿意針對這個問題說上兩句。
Those who welcome migrants, and those less concerned about the issue, are less noisy.
那些歡迎移民的人，以及那些不太關(guān)心這個問題的人，就沒有他們喧囂。
How ugly is the politics?
政治有多丑陋？
A few weeks ago, a failed Northern League candidate was arrested after six immigrants were shot in a drive-by spree in Macerata, a town northeast of Rome.
幾周前，六名移民在羅馬東北部城鎮(zhèn)馬切拉塔被駕車呼嘯而過的歹徒槍殺，隨后，一名選舉失敗的北方聯(lián)盟候選人就被逮捕了。
Italian media reported that, after the shootings, the 28-year-old suspect stepped out of his car draped in an Italian flag, offered a fascist salute and shouted "Italy for the Italians."
意媒報道稱，槍擊事件發(fā)生后，這名28歲的嫌疑人走出他噴有意大利國旗圖案的車，做了個向法西斯致敬的動作，同時高喊“意大利是意大利人的”。
A heated issue has only gotten hotter.
原本激烈的討論也愈演愈烈。
The question now is whether whoever leads the country next will be able—or willing—to lower the temperature.
現(xiàn)在的問題是，無論接下來由誰領(lǐng)導國家，他能否——或者說是否愿意——平息風波。
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