評論
打印
You are working at UIBE
您是在北京對外經貿大學工作?
Yes - I am teaching a course on climate change
是的,我在教授一門氣候變化課程
it is a one month course - 32 credit hours - a pretty intensive effort
這是一個為期一個月課程，32學分，安排得相當密集
it is a lot of information to try and get across in a month
對于一個月的課程來說，信息量很大
We have had quite a lot of rain this month in Beijing
這個月北京下了很多雨啊
There is no question that as the planet gets warmer we will see more
隨著地球變暖, 毫無疑問, 我們將會看到更多雨天
It raises the metabolism of the weather systems
它提高了天氣系統的新陳代謝
the storms get larger, the droughts get longer, the rain gets more intense
風暴會更大, 干旱會更長, 雨會下得更加激烈
So yes, this is what we have ahead of us.
所以是的, 這就是我們即將面臨的情況。
Whether this particular year is caused by climate change nobody can say that because it is too short a time period.
這一年氣象是否是由氣候變化導致的，沒人能說準, 因為時間太短。
But we clearly see temperatures this year - every month this year has set records around the world in terms of summer heat
但我們能清楚地看到今年的氣溫——今年每個月世界各地都創造了暑熱記錄
China Daily mentioned this year that the rainfall in northern China has been significantly higher than in previous years.
《中國日報》提到，今年中國北方的降雨明顯高于往年。
That is the kind of thing we expect there will be more of.
而且我們還將會看到更多。
These storms are difficult - they do a lot of damage in cities
這些風暴很危險, 它們會給城市帶來很多危害。
They also do a lot of damage in agricultural communities because they destroy the crops.
它們也在迫害農業社區, 因為它們破壞莊稼。
Look at what happened in the Yangtze River Valley just a few weeks ago - and you realise the damage these kinds of storms can do.
看看幾周前發生在長江河谷的風暴，你就會意識到它們可能會帶來多大的傷害。
I am starting with just what is the basic science
我只是從最基本的科學開始講起。
To talk about that I had to talk about modelling and statistics and how we estimate what is going to happen in the future.
要談論它, 我不得不得談論模型和統計，以及我們如何估算未來將會發生什么。
The uncertainties involved - the uncertainties in the science
這其中所涉及的不確定性——科學的不確定性
Then we talk about the effects we predict from these models - which is changing all the time because the more we look the more we see different aspects of the problem.
然后我們探討從這些模型中所能預測出來的影響——當然這些影響是不斷變化的, 因為我們研究得越多,越能看到問題的不同方面。
Track Two
What is happening in the Arctic is a significant change in the whole ecological structure正在北極所發生的一切變化對整個生態結構都具有重大的影響
It affects the people who live on the Arctic coast
它影響著住在北極海岸的居民
It affects the wildlife - everybody talks about the polar bears - the most dramatic example
它影響著野生動物——舉個最引人注目的例子，每個人都在談論的北極熊
It affects the fish - it affects the food the fish eat - it just changes everything as it gets warmer.
它影響魚——影響魚吃的食物——因為變暖，一切事情都被改變了。
The ice disappears
冰消失了
The melting ice in Greenland is turning out to be a much bigger phenomenon than we thought
正在格陵蘭上演的冰川融化現象比我們想象的要嚴重得多
The cold water runoff has an effect on ocean currents
融化的冰水的流徑影響著洋流
The interrelations, the detailed interrelations of the whole environmental system
of our planet are just not known well enough to see all the connections
由于我們對這些關聯, 對整個地球環境系統內部詳細的關聯認識得不夠充份，我們還看不清這其中所有的聯系。
Until suddenly we get some data that shows something we did not know
直到突然我們獲得了一些數據, 顯示出了我們不知道的東西
The ice in Greenland melting - this means more cold water coming into the oceans?
格陵蘭島的冰川融化——這意味著更多的冰水將流入海洋?
It is affecting more than temperature - it is affecting the whole system
這影響的不只是氣溫，而是整個系統
The water around Greenland drives the whole ocean current system and the change right now is driving the ocean currents more dramatically because there is more cold water coming in.
格陵蘭島周圍的水驅動著整個洋流系統，而目前由于冷水的持續流入，這一驅動力正在加劇。
When you reach the point where there isn't enough ice in Greenland - some people think the ocean currents will simply stop
有些人認為，只要達到一定程度，當格陵蘭島沒有足夠的冰了，洋流會停止。
That instead of these great flows around the planet the oceans will be stagnant - probably not a very good thing
認為海洋將不受這些強大水流的影響而保持停滯——這可能不是一件好事
People think that (today's Arctic) is going to be the most inhabitable part of the planet in 50 to 75 years time.
人們認為(現在的北極) 在50到75年后將成為地球上最宜居的地區
The temperate areas like the US are going to be too hot and a lot of it will turn into desert.
現在的溫帶地區，如美國，將會變得太熱, 其中很多地區甚至會變成沙漠
