評論
打印
And he says yeah, well, it's for the wealthier culture issues as well too that make the difference, otherwise I don't think we can really know
這不能簡單又歸因于這些富裕地區的文化差異導致了這種現象，因此我認為事實并不像我們想的那么簡單
Individuals are voting for all kinds of reasons
每個投票者的選擇都有其原因
We can sort of try to aggregate those statistics
而我們看到的只是他們行為的集合
but yeah, that's a real central paradox perhaps, at least issue, something to think about
這顯得很矛盾，很值得我們思考
And again,I'd really like to hear from the class sort of views you have on that
我很愿意聽你們的意見對這個問題的看法
Thanks, I know there were some other hands up. yes ?
我看到還有人舉手。請提問？
Yes how reliable are the polls?
民意調查的可信程度如何?
Yes, that's a great question
這個問題問得好
How reliable are polls overall
總體而言民調有多可信?
How reliable is these specific polls
某個特定的民調有多可信?
Certainly in the current election, you got to take into account what is somebody called Bradley effect
其實在現代的大選中你應該考慮布萊德利效應
After Tom Bradley L.A. Mayor ran for California
布萊德利曾以洛杉磯市長的身份競選加州州長（他是黑人）
African-American polls show that he is winning and he lost
一份由黑人進行的民意調查顯示他本應贏得選舉但他輸了
So the Bradley effect will tell you that people will say to pollsters
所以布萊德利效應指的是人們告訴民意調查者
That they're going to vote for a African-American candidate
他們會把票投給非洲裔候選人
A certain percentage of them will go to the voting booth and won't do it
但相當一部分受訪者到達投票點時并沒有這么做
So that's specific to this election, in elections in general
所以今年奧巴馬可能也有這種情況，這種現象是有普遍性的
Sometimes the polls are dead on
有時候民意調查尤為精準
Sometimes they are really wrong
有時候卻誤導大家
They don't always call it
它無法總是給人正確的指引
I mentioned the 1948 election where the polls show that Dewey was gonna crash Truman and Truman won
我提到過在1948年的大選中民調顯示杜威在大選中將戰勝杜魯門，最后杜魯門卻獲勝了
And there're been some more recent cases of confounding of polls
近來類似的不準確的民調出現的例子還有很多
I'm actually really sort of surprise the polls work as well as they do
我一直很好奇民意調查怎么能發揮如此強大的作用
It seems to me a lot of people would say none of your business who am I voting for
我總覺得很多人接受調查時會說我支持的是誰與你無關
Some people do say none of your business
有時即使被訪者說與你無關
but the pollster sort of figure it out who those people would be
但調查者總能將他們歸為某方的支持者
and put it in their equations to come up with the poll
并根據他們的公式計算出民調結果
It's been very interesting what's happening now, I am checking the polls all the time
現在的選情也很有趣，我一直在關注民意調查
