評論
打印
Gelman argues that in any county
作者還稱，在任何縣
the wealthier people are going to be more Republican voting
較富裕的人都更有可能傾向于共和黨
Yes, one line that says that "I'd like to test that out"
是的，可能有人會說這很容易證明
I mean it's true that in San Francisco
例如在三藩市
would it be the wealthier San Franciscosis who are voting Republican
是否較富裕的人會更傾向支持共和黨呢?
What do you think?
你們意見如何?
I see people shaking their head
我看到有同學在搖頭
How about in Palo Alto
那在帕羅奧多（斯坦福所在地）呢?
It's gonna be the richest Palo Alto who are voting Republican
這里最富裕的人是不是傾向支持共和黨人?
Ok, I see some people, I don't know
我知道有些人是的，但我不確定
What I'd like to do if I ever had time would to go into the pressing data
如果我有時間，我想做的是親自去調查這些數據
Look at how Los Altos hills which side they're voting
你可以到洛思拉圖斯附近看看，當地富人到底傾向哪個黨
compare those to Redwood city or other places
在雷德伍德城或者其他地方呢?
I haven't done that
我沒有實踐過這個想法
I haven't see anyone else who's done that either
也從來沒見過其他人這么做
Truly, easy to get this county data,no problem
你們都知道，收集縣級數據輕而易舉
If you want go down to pricing level, it's harder
但如果你要收集市級的數據則比較難
Yes? ok, that the comment was in Hulston, Afron very wealthy areas
你有什么問題？他的問題是在那些非常富裕的區域
Voter registration much more Republican
注冊的選民更多地傾向共和黨人
That fits Gelman's model perfectly
這與Gelman的模型很吻合
That's exactly what he would argue
這就是他想告訴我們的
So he would say "yes, that's the pattern"
他應該會回答你，是的這就是規律
and we see it here in northern California as well as anywhere else
正如我們在北加州和其他地方看到的那樣
So it's kind of interesting way of looking at this
從這個角度來分析投票傾向是十分有趣的
Again, if any one has views on this section
如果你們對這個問題還有什么其他見解
I'd love to hear them because it's real interesting aspect
我都很愿意聽聽，因為這個問題的確挺有趣的
Yes? transplants, yes
請提問?移居問題
That's something I'll be talking in a few weeks
這個問題我在后面幾周的課程會講
As people move from one area to another
這是人們在地區間的遷移造成的
A lot of opinion polling would suggest that
很多民意調查顯示
Conservative people are actually more likely to move from one area to another
保守派人士會更愿意從一個地方搬到另一個地方
We'll see later on
以后我們會深入了解會發現
that the fastest growing counties are almost are all Republican voting counties
那些發展最迅猛的縣都是支持共和黨的
in the country, fastest growing in percentile term
這些國內增長百分比最高的縣
and that has something to do with transplant
與人口移居有著某種關聯
It's very interesting argument by Bill Bishop
這是一個很有趣的觀點，是Bill Bishop提出的
and cause the great sort
這造成了不同類型的人住在不同地方
Americans are sorting themselves out, by moving/wanting to move to areas
通過移居到某個地方，相似特征的美國人聚居到同一地區
to some extent, where they feel comfortable
因為某個程度上，他們傾向于移居到令他們舒適的地方
and that can include political comfortable as well
這種"舒適"當然也包括政見上的認同感
So he had argued, we will see a lot more of this kind polarization as we go on
所以根據他的觀點，我們會看到更多由移居引起的分化現象
Yes! in general, yes
請提問！總體來說，是這樣的
The question is wealthy people are more likely to vote
他的問題是富人是否更樂于參加投票
Yes, that's very definite trend
是的，這個趨勢非常明顯
Although there are also lots of voter registration strive to try to even that out
盡管很多選民登記處都想盡力掩蓋這種趨勢
but there's pretty good correlation with that factor as well
但富人的確更愿意參與到投票當中
Thanks for your input, I really do appreciate it
很謝謝你的補充
I think I may have done enough here on this issue
我想收入因素我已經解釋得差不多了
Let me move on and talk about the map again
讓我們繼續，繼續聊聊那幅地圖
Go back to this great red and blue map again
回到這幅紅藍地圖的討論上來
Accepting that as true but maybe not
先假設這幅地圖反映的是真實情況，不過它也有可能不真實
All maps conceal, right
所有地圖都會隱藏一些事實
There's really interesting book by Mark S. Monmonier Mark
寫過一本很有趣的書
"how to lie with maps"
叫做"如何用地圖說謊"
One of his arguments is we are always in the way lying with maps
他的一個觀點就是我們經常會用地圖來說謊
because maps are showing some things but they are leaving a lot out
因為地圖在表現某些特征的同時，也忽略了很多其它事實
depending on the categories you choose
這取決于你選擇的是怎樣的一組數據
You can show some very different things
不同的選擇會使地圖呈現出不同結果
