There may be no one at this point who has more experience than me at doing this.
在這一點(diǎn)上,沒人比我更有發(fā)言權(quán)
And I can tell you how much an expert can know about that.
我可以明確地告訴你,專家能預(yù)測對(duì)多少
The answer is, not much.
答案是:不多
I learned from experience to keep a completely open mind about which startup in each batch,
從實(shí)踐中,我學(xué)會(huì)了以完全開放的心態(tài)看待孵化的一批公司中
which startups would turn out to be the stars.
哪些公司能大獲成功
The founders sometimes thought they knew.
創(chuàng)始人有時(shí)覺得他們知道自己能大獲成功
Some arrived feeling confident that they would ace Y Combinator,
有些創(chuàng)始人信心滿滿
just as they had aced every one of the few, easy, artificial tests they had faced in life so far.
覺得他們能在YC公司競賽中取勝,就像他們?cè)诳荚囍锌偰苣酶叻?/p>

Others arrived wondering
有些創(chuàng)始人希望
what mistake could cause them to be admitted and hoping that no one would discover it.
犯點(diǎn)小錯(cuò)也能蒙混過關(guān),沒有人發(fā)現(xiàn)
But there's little to no correlation between these attitudes in how things turn out.
不過,創(chuàng)始人的這些態(tài)度和成功與否沒有太大關(guān)系
I've read the same is true in the military that
在這點(diǎn)上,和軍隊(duì)有點(diǎn)像
the swaggering recruits are no more likely to turn out to be really tough than the quiet ones.
高調(diào)的軍人不一定比低調(diào)的軍人更強(qiáng)大
And probably for the same reason that the tests are so different from the tests in people's previous lives
相同的原因可能是此時(shí)的“測試”與生活中其他“測試”太不一樣了
If you're absolutely terrified of starting a startup, you probably shouldn't do it,
如果你對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)心存恐懼,最好不要?jiǎng)?chuàng)業(yè)
unless you're one of those people who gets off on doing things you're afraid of.
除非,你是那種一定要戰(zhàn)勝自己的恐懼的人
Otherwise, if you're merely unsure of whether you're gonna be able to do it,
反之,如果你不確定自己是否適合創(chuàng)業(yè)
the only way to find out is to try, just not now.
只有試一下才知道的話,那就先別創(chuàng)業(yè)
So, if you wanna startup one day, if you wanna start a startup one day, what do you do now in college?
如果你想今后創(chuàng)業(yè),如果你想今后某天創(chuàng)業(yè),你現(xiàn)在大學(xué)該做什么呢?
There are only two things you need initially,an idea, and co-founders.
有兩件事:尋找創(chuàng)意,尋找合伙人
And the MO for getting them both is the same, which leads to our sixth, sixth and last counter-intuitive point.
二者可以同時(shí)進(jìn)行,這就引出了反直覺的第六點(diǎn),也就是最后一點(diǎn)
The way to get startup ideas, is not to try to think of startup ideas.
獲得創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)意的方法就是不要刻意去想創(chuàng)業(yè)創(chuàng)意
I've written a whole essay on this and I'm not gonna repeat the whole thing here.
關(guān)于這點(diǎn),我寫過一篇文章,我在此就不贅述了
But the short version is that
長話短說的話
if you make a conscious effort to try and think of startup ideas,
如果你費(fèi)了老大勁,想出了一個(gè)創(chuàng)意
you will think of ideas that are not only bad, but bad and plausible sounding.
這個(gè)創(chuàng)意既不怎么好,卻又似乎可行
Meaning you and everybody else will be fooled by them,
如果用這個(gè)創(chuàng)意來創(chuàng)業(yè)的話,你們都會(huì)被坑的
and you'll waste a lot of time before realizing they're no good.
浪費(fèi)了大把的時(shí)間,最終發(fā)現(xiàn)效果不好
The way to come up with good startup ideas is to take a step back.
提出好創(chuàng)意的方法是:退一步海闊天空
Instead of trying to make a conscious effort to think of startup ideas,
不要絞盡腦汁地想創(chuàng)意
turn your brain into the type that has startup ideas unconsciously.
讓創(chuàng)意無意間映入眼簾
In fact, so unconsciously that you don't even realize at first that they're startup ideas.
如此不經(jīng)意,以至于當(dāng)創(chuàng)意出現(xiàn)時(shí),你甚至不能馬上意識(shí)到
This is not only possible, Yahoo, Google, Facebook, and Apple all got started this way.
這絕不是扯淡,Yahoo,Google,F(xiàn)acebook以及Apple,他們的創(chuàng)意都是這么來的
None of these companies were even supposed to be companies at first, they were all just side projects.
這些公司最初都沒想到能成為公司,只是小項(xiàng)目而已
The very best ideas almost have to start as side projects,
最好的創(chuàng)意都是由小項(xiàng)目發(fā)展而來的
because they're always such outliers that your conscious mind would reject as ideas for companies. Okay?
因?yàn)樗鼈冸y入主流,大家很自然地想,這絕不會(huì)是個(gè)創(chuàng)業(yè)好點(diǎn)子