評論
打印
Mark Zuckerberg will never get to bum around a foreign country.
馬克·扎克伯格（Facebook創始人）不會無緣由地去國外旅行
He can, if he goes to a foreign country,
如果他出國了
it's either as a defacto state visit, or, like,
他要么是在進行正式訪問
he's hiding out incognito at the George Cinc in Paris. Right?
要么是在巴黎微服私訪
But he's never gonna get to just, like, backpack around Thailand if that's still what people do.
他不會當一個背包客，去泰國旅行，當然一般人是會這樣的
Do people still backpack around Thailand?
現在還有人背包旅行嗎？
Yes. Okay, well there, that's the first real sign of enthusiasm I've seen from this audience.
的確有人這么做，第一次看到同學們反應這么強烈
I should have given this talk in Thailand.
我該講講泰國那些事的
All right, he can do things that you can't do,
當然他做的一些事，你做不到
like charter jets to fly him to foreign countries, really big jets.
比如，坐私人飛機去國外
But success has taken a lot of the serendipity out of his life.
成功讓他的生活失去了一些新奇
Facebook is running him as much as he is running Facebook.
他掌管著Facebook，同樣Facebook掌管著他
And while it can be really cool to be in the grip of some project you consider your life's work,
能抓住機會找到可作為終身事業的工作的確很酷
there are advantages to serendipity.
新奇帶來很多好處，這是其一
And among other things, it gives you more options to choose your life's work from.
此外，在終身事業上，你有了更多的選擇
There's not even a trade-off here.
甚至都不用權衡
You're not sacrificing anything if you forego starting a startup at 20,
因為等到合適的年齡創業才更可能成功
cuz you'll be more likely to succeed if you wait.
所以20歲開始創業，也不損失什么
In the unlikely case that you're 20, like astronomically unlikely case,
在極少數情況下，在極少極少極少數情況下
that you're 20 and you have some side project that takes off like Facebook did.
在20歲的時候，會有像Facebook那樣成功的項目
Then you face the choice of either running with it or not, and maybe it's reasonable to run with it.
創業一般般的話，就面臨選擇：是否繼續經營下去，繼續經營或許更合適一些
But usually the way startups take off is for the founders to make them take off.
是否開始創業，取決于創業者
It's gratuitously stupid to do that at 20.
20歲就開始創業是不明智的
So should you do it at any age?
在任何年齡都能創業嗎？
I realize, I've made Starting a startup sound kind of hard.
我前面貌似把創業說的太難了
If I haven't, let me try again. Starting a startup is really hard.
如果沒有的話，我再重申一遍，創業真的很難！！
What if it's too hard? What if you're not up to this challenge?
如果創業太難，你勝任不了，怎么辦？
The answer is the fifth counter-intuitive point. You can't tell.
答案是反直覺的第五條：你不能說出來
Your life, so far, has given you some idea what your prospects might be,
從小你就被灌輸著未來的理想職業是什么樣的
if you wanted to become a mathematician, or a professional football player.
如果你想當數學家，會怎么怎么樣，或是職業足球運動員，會怎么怎么樣
Boy, it's not every audience you could say that to.
當然大家的童年愿望各不同
But unless you have had a very strange life, indeed, you have not done much that's like starting a startup.
除非你的生活比較奇特，否則你很少憧憬去創業
Meaning, starting a startup will change you a lot if it works out.
創業成功會極大地改變你的生活
So, what you're trying to estimate is not just what you are,
要盡力估計的不僅有“你是什么樣的人”
but what you could become, and who can do that?
還有“你會成為什么樣的人”“誰能勝任”
Well, not me, for the last nine years, it was my job to try and guess whether people would.
過去的九年，我的工作是猜測人們是否…
Guess is, I wrote predicted here and it came out as guess.
我這里寫的是“預測”，我說出來的卻是“猜測”
That's a very informative Freudian slip.
不小心說漏嘴了
Seriously, it's easy to tell how smart people are in ten minutes.
判斷一個人是否聰明很簡單
You know, hit a few tennis balls over the net and do they hit them back at you or into the net.
就像打幾回合的網球，你把問題揮向他，看他能很好地回擊給你還是觸網失分
But, the hard part was, and the most important part was predicting how tough and ambitious they would become.
最困難最重要的部分是預測創業者會有多堅強，有多野心勃勃
